ANALYSIS "I urge all volunteers not to raise their hand n to stay calm n non-violent. U shud be prepared to lay down ur life but never raise hand," tweeted Arvind Kejriwal as TV channels beamed images of the stone-throwing contest outside BJP's office in Delhi.
It was an attempt to stake the Gandhian higher ground, to mimic the statesman-like tone of a great leader reminding his people of the righteous path. A strategy mimicked by Rajmohan Gandhi when he compared the violence to Chauri Chaura. The parallel is far-fetched and amusingly self-aggrandising, but it points to AAP's achilles heel.
Street brawls may be routine among rival party workers, but they spell peril for a party which claims to represent the everyday Indian: the good guy who stands up to violence but doesn't participate in it. Stone throwing cannot be part of the AAP arsenal. Turning the other cheek, however, works marvelously in terms of optics.
This is the reason why, unlike the pitched battle in Delhi, the images from Lucknow of lathi-wielding BJP workers — along with images of Kejriwal's smashed windscreen in Gujarat — were a PR goldmine for Kejriwal. What he needs most is media coverage portraying the BJP as the big, bad bully beating up on the hapless little guy. And this is exactly why he is in Gujarat: to provoke, frustrate and ultimately evoke a forceful response.
It is also why BJP's Rajnath Singh hastily tweeted out, "I appeal to all party karyakartas in the country to stay calm and peaceful." And that hasty appeal in itself constitutes a discursive victory for AAP. Its leaders have managed to expose the "strongman" reputation of Modi — and his RSS backers — as a potential weakness that can be exploited using the right tactics.
Just one report of Kejriwal being "detained" by Gujarat police — which they now describe as a precautionary and not punitive measure — can be transformed into a narrative of a dictator squelching the ordinary citizen who dares to challenge him in his own den. Worse, a Goliath now running scared of David, as demonstrated by AAP sympathisers like Shivam Vij who were quick to tweet, "Whether or not #ArvindKejriwal violated model code of conduct, the detention by Gujarat Police will send out the signal that Modi fears him."
While BJP supporters may revel in Modi's air of authoritarianism — his 'my way or the highway' machismo — it is exactly what makes most fence-sitters nervous. They are ready to embrace the promise of galloping growth but worry that they may pay a high price for it in terms of individual freedom and social stability (ie rise of communalism). Sure, they may tell themselves that Godhra was a one-time administrative failure that rightfully belongs in the past, but that assurance wobbles dangerously each time a Lucknow-style incident makes headlines.
The burden of BJP's history — which spans rath yatras and riots — ensures that any display of muscle automatically evokes the spectre of a saffron party running amok. This is all the more true for Narendra Modi who is now experiencing the not-so-hidden downside of being the Hindu Hriday Samrat, Loh Purush etc. He has long enjoyed the perks of dubious titles that evoke raw power, and now he is staring at the bill — and the man who is determined to make him pay up.
This is one game of chicken Modi cannot win by playing Sher-e-Gujarat. BJP's new, gentler avatar that reaches out to all Indians in the name of inclusive development and governance is already hobbled by its own rightwing obstinacy (See: Rajnath Singh's 'apology' debacle). It will, however, come entirely undone if they lose their temper — which is precisely Kejriwal's aim.
But as the fracas outside the BJP office reveals, Kejriwal can just as easily lose his ace if his own troops lapse into political goondaism as usual. AAP's own history — ie the Khirki raid — makes him vulnerable to accusations of mobocracy, which will harden into a full-blown image problem if his supporters run wild. Modi still has a number of other cards — governance, development, growth etc — in his arsenal.
Kejriwal has only one: anti-establishment cred. If Kejriwal needs to keep his party's inner Somnath Bharti firmly out of sight and maintain his Gandhian poise, the challenge for the BJP and Modi is no less daunting. They have to not just to keep themselves in check, but to also rein in the many fringe groups that act up in the name of its ideology.
When the Hindutva goondas slapped a hapless Prashant Bhushan in front of the cameras, it didn't matter as much to the saffron party. But a similar spectacle today is likely to play right into Kejriwal's hands, who can affirm once again that the BJP is too extreme for India.
In an election season that promises many more AAP-BJP confrontations, defeat belongs to the man who throws the first punch.
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