Before the no-holds-barred battle for the simultaneous elections to Lok Sabha and Andhra Pradesh Assembly begins, Telugu Desam Party is showing desperation to forge another “Grand Alliance” to take on the Congress and TRS in Telangana and YSRCP in Seemandhra. The idea is to polarize the voters on communal and caste lines to make it a three-cornered contest in Telangana and a direct fight in Seemandhra.
TDP is keen to bring BJP, Lok Satta Party and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena on board as pre-poll allies. This last-ditch effort of TDP to make the general elections a do-and-die battle is reminiscent of ‘Maha Kutami’ that the yellow party had formed with TRS, CPI and CPM in the 2009 general elections.
The TDP’s strategy, right from its inception in 1982, is to ensure that the anti-Congress votes are consolidated. For this reason, the party has shown typical nervousness to take on the Congress singlehandedly. TDP has fought all the Assembly and LS elections in the state since 1983 in association with other parties.
Starting with Rashtriya Sanjay Manch of Maneka Gandhi in 1983, the TDP went to 1984 Lok Sabha polls with BJP, CPI, CPI-M, Janata, Congress (Socialist) and National Democratic Party of India (NDPI) by its side. TDP contested subsequent Lok Sabha polls (1991, 1996, 1998), Assembly elections (1985, 1994) and simultaneous Lok Sabha & Assembly polls in 1989, 1999, 2004 and 2009 with leftist or rightist allies or both.
The dividends for TDP through these anti-Congress alliances have been mixed. In 1989 and 2004, TDP lost power to the Congress despite putting up a spirited fight with allies by its side. In 1983 and 1994, TDP wrested power from the Congress, riding on its anti-Congress plank. TDP-BJP alliance’s debacle in AP in 2004 led to NDA losing power at Centre.
In 2009, Maha Kutami failed to prevent the Congress from retaining power in AP and at Centre. Hence, this time, TDP is keen to garner support of BJP, LSP and “Power Star” to shore up its prospects in Telangana and Seemandhra in the simultaneous polls.
Since relations with Harikrishna and-—consequently—NTR Junior have soured after 2009 polls, Chandrababu Naidu wants to tap the cine glamour of Pawan Kalyan now. To checkmate any gains that AAP may make in AP, TDP boss wants to rope in LSP. BJP is preferred, because of the hypnotic spell that Narendra Modi seems to have cast on Chandrababu and others of his ilk.
A tieup with LSP may also reinforce the ‘settler’ support in Hyderabad, Rangareddy, Khammam and other districts in Telangana with large presence of Seemandhra voters. BJP is expected to bring the pro-Telangana votes in this region and pro-Modi votes in Seemandhra.
The TDP alliance is seeking the votes of backward classes, Kapus and associated castes, besides Kammas, a section of Reddys, Madigas and Girijans. YSR Congress in banking on the support of Reddys, Malas, Muslims, Christians and a section of Kapus, BCs and STs in Seemandhra. The Congress is relying on the Reddys, sections of BCs, Dalits and STs in Telangana.
TRS hopes to gain the votes of Telangana supporters among all sections, including Velamas. Both the Congress and TRS are wooing the minorities--- Muslims and Christians—in Telangana, though Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen is making forays into minority-dominated areas. CPI and CPI-M are weighing options to align with Congress and YSRCP respectively.
By opting for alliance with BJP and Jana Sena, the TDP is ready to forego 12.5 per cent Muslim vote in Telangana, 12.5 per cent in Rayalaseema and 10 per cent in south Coastal Andhra. It is only in the five North coastal districts that the Muslims have marginal presence but the Christians account for a big chunk of voters in this region and they may plump for YSRCP. So, it will not be an easy task for TDP-led alliance to pose a formidable challenge to YSRCP in Seemandhra and Congress and TRS in Telangana.
BJP’s vote-share in 2009 Assembly and Lok Sabha polls was 2.84 and 3.75 per cent respectively. LSP polled 1.33 per cent votes in Lok Sabha and 1.75 per cent in Assembly. Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party had polled 15.67 per cent votes in Lok Sabha and 16.32 per cent in Assembly. Jana Sena can hardly be a match to erstwhile PRP.
TDP is trying to substitute its two-eyed policy on the bifurcation issue with its opportunistic alliances in the two states now. Will Chandrababu’s gamble pay off this time or will it be a case of sour grapes again?
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