SPECIAL REPORT The most interesting aspect of the 2014 elections is that, despite the initial momentum gained by the BJP under Narendra Modi, its outcome is still unpredictable. This is largely because of two factors: the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, and its plans to spread elsewhere; and two, the fear of Modi, which may drive unusual partnerships in some states (Congress-BSP in UP and Congress-RJD-LJP in Bihar).
This means straight fights between the Congress and BJP will be restricted to Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Rajasthan and Punjab. In a data-driven INNLIVE analysis of electoral outcomes in three- and four-horse races, has come to the conclusion that the BJP tends to do less well in such cases, and the Congress relatively better.
The data suggest that in 2009, the BJP won 51 percent of its straight fights, but only 31 percent of its multi-cornered fights. The Congress, on the other hand, won 55 percent and 58 percent respectively. In 1999, which was BJP’s comeback year under Atal Behari Vajpayee, the party won 68 percent of its straight contests and only 38 percent of its multi-cornered ones.
The Congress, though it lost badly, managed 31 percent in both cases. Does this mean that the BJP is disadvantaged in multi-cornered contests? The answer may have to be more nuanced that just what the numbers suggest. For example, the reason why the BJP seems to lose more in multi-cornered contests may be simple: its support is concentrated in the north and the west, whereas in the east and the south it may be losing most of its attempted contests, especially when it is not part of a strong coalition.
Most of its losses as No 2 or No 3 in the race may be in these states. In 2009, the BJP had no partners in the south and east, where the main contests were between the Congress and regional parties. It came a poor third, barring Karnataka. This year, with the BJP notching up fewer allies than before (though this may change closer to April-May), the party may, in fact, show a greater trend towards losing three-cornered fights if we assume that it will win more vote share in the south and east, but not too many additional seats.
On the other hand, a harder look at the data suggests something else: the sharp decline in BJP’s winning performance in multi-cornered fights starts from 1999 – where it won only 38 percent of such contests, and falling further to 32 percent and 31 percent in 2004 and 2009 - can be largely attributable to the party’s headlong tumble in Uttar Pradesh. UP was where the party won the most seats in 1998 (57), and this dropped steadily to 10 in 2009.
In UP, from 1991 to 1998, the BJP was winning three- and four-cornered contests; after 1999 it started losing them. In 2004 and 2009, moreover, the party’s key allies drifted away: in Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu took his own road with the Left (and lost) in 2004, while in Odisha, Navin Patnaik’s BJD dumped the BJP in 2009. Thus the BJP became the third party in these two states too.
Apart from UP, the state in which three-party contests have really affected the BJP is Maharashtra – where the emergence of Raj Thackeray’s MNS has forced the Sena-BJP alliance to live with fewer seats than it could have won otherwise, given the relative unpopularity of the Congress-NCP alliance. But what do the data suggest for 2014? Are there any pointers that the BJP must take note of? Due to the emergence of AAP, there will be three- or four-cornered contests in many states now.
The key states to watch for surprise three-cornered results are Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana and Maharashtra. In Uttar Pradesh, if the Congress and BSP tie up for a seat-sharing arrangement, the resultant three-horse race could dent Modi’s appeal to some extent. But one could well see a three-cornered fight benefiting the BJP, for if the Congress ties up with Mayawati, its supporters could head for the BJP in larger numbers. So UP is again key to proving or disproving this three-cornered theory.
In Bihar, the emergence of a stronger Congress-Lalu alliance may end up depleting Nitish Kumar and his JD(U). So a loss for BJP seems unlikely. In Maharashtra, the Modi-Sena-RPI-Swabhimani Shektari combine looks likely to overcome the MNS’s spoiler gambit, though it is too early to predict this.
AAP could be a factor in Mumbai and Pune, making the contest four-cornered. Karnataka is also three-cornered – Congress, BJP and JD(S) – but the chances are it could become a two-horse race with the re-entry of BS Yeddyurappa in the BJP. The most interesting three-cornered fight could be in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh – where the BJP will probably enter the fight in alliance with one or two regional parties.
This could give it the BJP a higher success ratio if it gains 3-4 seats in the bargain in each state. Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra, and PMK and MDMK are possible partners in Tamil Nadu. The three-cornered contest theory has not been tested against the fact that there is now a strong Modi pull-and-push factor in these elections.
Three-cornered contests may have worked against the BJP in the past, but this time there is an additional “M” factor whose value we will discover only by the end of May, when the results are out.
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