The storm in the 'T' cup which brought dark clouds over Telangana in the past couple of days following intense speculation that the Group of Ministers (GoM) working out the modalities of the bifurcation were seriously considering a Rayala-Telangana proposal, has finally fizzed out.
The Union Cabinet finally approved the creation of Telangana with 10 districts and Hyderabad as joint capital for the two successor states for a period not exceeding 10 years, with the Governor given control over law and order in the capital.
This solution is just what the doctor prescribed for Telangana. Undoubtedly and expectedly, the decision is bound to create some disturbance in Seemandhra, and indications of this manifested on Friday, with the two regions observing a shutdown in protest against the decision.
The shutdown calls came from almost all quarters opposed to the division including Jaganmohan Reddy's YSR Congress and the main opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP).
Such calls from political parties should be expected, but surely it is now more a gesture of tokenism than any real intent to force the Federal Government to roll back its decision. Both YSRC and TDP are jostling for political space in Seemandhra, with each trying to position itself as the true champion of the Seemandhra cause.
On the political front, the Congress, in any case, is fully aware that its fate in Seemandhra is completely sealed, which is why it took the gambit of sticking to the original Congress Working Committee's decision to carve out Telangana with 10 districts. Consider this for Congress. If it had given in to pressure from some quarters to include the two Rayalaseema districts of Kurnool and Anantapur with Telangana, it would have rubbed not only the Telangana Rashtra Samithi the wrong way, but would have also lost at least part of its leadership and cadres in Telangana.
On the other hand, by sticking to the original formula, it has surely enlisted the unstinted support of TRS in the event of the ruling party faring badly in Telangana. Even if the widely-anticipated merger of TRS with Congress fails to take place, the Congress is assured of the sub-regional party's support, and in today's era of coalition politics, numbers are what matter most. In the case of Seemandhra too, Congress may well come up trumps since the YSR Congress, which is gaining in popularity by the day and is expected to do well in the 2014 general elections, would be faced with the 'TINA' (there is no alternative) factor, and forced to sail with the Congress since it is opposed to the BJP-led NDA's policies.
Jagan Reddy, who himself hails from the minority Christian community, has time and again made it clear that his party would never align with the BJP. Moreover, his bête noire and TDP President N Chandrababu Naidu has been increasingly gravitating towards the BJP, which he had deserted after his party's fiasco in the 2004 polls. The Union Cabinet, by declaring the multi-purpose Polavaram project as a national project with the Centre responsible for its execution, has to a major extent, addressed the irrigation needs of the Krishna delta region.
Polavaram, expected to cost around Rs 50,000 to Rs 60,000 crores, along with the Pulichintula project in Guntur district, is expected to take care of the irrigation needs of the coastal Andhra region. The decision to bring the execution of the Polavaram project under the federal government also negates the Seemandhra demand for including Bhadrachalam in the residuary state since the issue of submergence of several villages in Telangana, will be dealt with effectively by the Union Government.
Another issue that was cited by those opposed to the bifurcation was the fate of thousands of government employees from Seemandhra working in Telangana in general and Hyderabad in particular. The Union Cabinet, by deciding that Article 371 D, which deals with the issue, would continue in both states, has ensured equitable opportunities for public employment and education in both states.
Besides, it has also decided to continue with the existing quotas in higher technical and medical institutions for a period of five years, which addresses the concerns of Seemandhra people over education of their children. These apart, there are bound to be issues which will need deft handling once the Telangana Bill enters the lawmakers' domain. Union Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde, speaking to mediapersons after the marathon Cabinet meeting late Thursday evening, said the Bill would be sent to President Pranab Mukherjee, who in turn will refer it to the Andhra Pradesh Assembly soliciting its views on the issue before it goes to Parliament for clearance.
The overall expectation is that the Bill, on its journey through various phases, was unlikely to undergo any major changes. Expectedly, it will face rough weather in the State Assembly but the UPA government has made it clear that the opinion expressed by the state would hardly have any impact on its decision. In Parliament, however, it is a different scenario since the BJP has all along said it would support Telangana.
There may be minor hiccups but with the BJP supporting the Bill, the UPA government is not expected to push through the Bill without any major hassles. There are bound to be resignation dramas that would be enacted by Congress Union Ministers and lawmakers in the aftermath of the decision, but it is unlikely that the Congress-led UPA would be faced with any crisis.
Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy, who has been consistently and vociferously opposing the bifurcation move, is expected to resign and float his own party. Whether such a move would affect the electoral prospects of the Congress is the million dollar question.
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