ANALYSIS In India's last winter of discontent, there is one undisputed truth: the stench of Congress cadaver, spread across three states, has become unbearable except in certain history-proof addresses in Delhi. The deferred shame in Chhattisgarh apart, Verdict 2013 is a measure of India's anger against its oldest party.
Beyond the wreckage of Congress shine three exceptional narratives of consolidation, conquest and conscience.
The easiest way to sum up the hat-trick of Shivraj Chouhan is that it is Gujarat all over again. The understated consolidator of Bhopal not only disallowed incumbency fatigue to set in but succeeded in renewing his own brand equity. If what a party aspiring for the future of India needs is not the inevitability of one but an infusion of talents, Chauhan is Modi in the making, but of course without the latter's national appeal and charisma. He is the quiet consolidator of the heartland. And a vote-gathering asset for Modi in 2014.
In neighbouring Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje did more than rout Gehlot. She defeated her own less than exemplary legacy as chief minister five years ago. She learned the hardest way and won. The comeback queen has become a frontline force in an an otherwise masculine Parivar. The Raje victory is a rite of redemption.
In Delhi, the magic broom of Arvind Kejriwal swept away the cosy assumptions of politics-as-usual. As the so called mainstream politician played with the mass mind, the usurper in a Gandhi cap stirred the conscience of the angry and the disillusioned. The first notation of a new political morality has been written in the Capital of mounting immorality.
The momentum is for BJP, the clear winner of 2013, to maintain and, consequently, Modi's job gets tougher. Chhattisgarh and Delhi tell us that there was no Modi wave strong enough to neutralise local factors. The biggest winners of BJP--Chouhan and Raje--owe their victory more to the specific political reality of the two states. The reality of Chouhan's stellar record in governance and Raje's rejoinder to Gehlot's pathetic pastiche of a government. Now, from the comfort zones of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Modi has to move on to navigate the minefields of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. You really need a wave to win there, and Modi has not created one yet. The verdict tells us that much.
It also tells us the redundancy of Rahul Gandhi as a campaigner and mobiliser. In the battle for India, Modi's rival is not Rahul because the heir-never-apparent is irredeemably trapped in the past. His voice is incompatible with India's. Modi, as it has always been, is pitted against Modi himself. An array of regional satraps is watching it to bet on the outcome at the appropriate moment.
To turn Congress' cruellest winter into a prologue for BJP 's summer thriller 2014, Narendra Modi has to become the wave rider in more treacherous states of India. He is not there yet.
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