Both sides are playing the proverbial cat and mouse game that is apparently nearing an end. Kiran Reddy is opposed to the bifurcation of the state and is bracing to go down fighting as the hero for Seemandhra or as some now describe him as the 'Samikyandhra Simham.'
He does not miss any opportunity to speak against the division of the state. Using the Andhra Pradesh Formation Day Celebrations as a powerful platform, on November 1, he raised the campaign to an emotional pitch.
"There are doubts in the minds of the people that the formation day celebrations may not be held next year. There is uncertainty all around. Massive projects like Nagarjunasagar and Srisailam were possible because of the united state. I pray to Telugu Talli (the symbolic Telugu mother) to see that the state remains united in future as well," declared Kiran Reddy at the official function, after reviewing the parade, at the NTR Stadium in Hyderabad.
Just the day earlier, on October 31, at meetings to mark the death of Indira Gandhi, Kiran Reddy appealed to his own party to toe her line after singing praise to the former Prime Minister's grit and determination in keeping the state united. "If the country has developed and the state remained unified it is only due to Indira Gandhi," declared the chief minister, quoting extracts from her speech on December 21, 1972 in Parliament, at a meeting to observe her death anniversary in Visakhapatnam and another at Gollaprolu in East Godavari district.
The chief minister senses his current role as 'the night watchman in cricket waiting for the last bowl to be bowled' to mark the division of the state. But he is certain that he does not want to go down in history as the one who gave up without a fight. Kiran Reddy is protesting by conducting himself as an unconventional Congress chief minister. He has written directly to President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh objecting to the manner in which the bifurcation process has begun without taking into account the wishes of the people of the state. This is glossing over the deliberate decision of the Congress party which was later endorsed by the Union Cabinet.
Kiran Reddy has, in private conversation with several senior Congress leaders in the state, been critical of the party's decision, expressed his disgust for being placed in such a predicament and declared that he told party bosses in Delhi to either allow him to steer the party and government to prove himself in the 2014 General Elections or allow him to quit as chief minister. But the Congress is unable to decide as it is unable to fathom what the fall out of a change of chief minister at this stage can be in the short term.
The Congress is in an unenviable position. It has a slender majority in the legislative assembly. Besides this, the party will face hurdles if a fresh resolution for a separate state or a Telangana bill is presented in the state legislature as part of the process leading to division. The constraints are inherent in the assembly arithmetic - there are just 119 seats for the Telangana region as opposed to 175 for Seemandhra. Moreover, cutting across party lines, more MLAs are against division and will defy any party whip on the issue.
The present strategy of the Chief Minister is to insist on the central government sending a resolution and the draft bill on Telangana to the State Assembly and ensure that they are defeated on the floor of the House. In effect, if Kiran Reddy continues to lead those opposed to division, the failure to adopt the resolution or endorse the Telangana bill implies that his ministry has to quit in keeping with democratic tradition. His plan is exit from the Congress after notching what his followers call will be 'a moral victory' and join the campaign for an integrated state.
The chief minister's contention is that once the Telangana bill is defeated in the Assembly, it would be morally indefensible for the Centre to move ahead with the division of the state. "The people will accept us if we go down fighting rather than give up half-way and leave the ground," said Kiran Reddy to his confidantes. In such a situation, the only option before the Congress is to impose President's rule. Or else, in a pre - emptive move, the Congress has to replace Reddy and take a chance to continue with Congress rule in the state in the run up to the General Elections.
This is making Kiran Reddy sit pretty and redraw his priorities in governance. The chief minister has in recent weeks made additional allocation of funds for development his native Chittoor district and augmenting the irrigation infrastructure needs of Seemandhra. What is more he is considering the grant of sops to government employees including the regularization of the 66 day strike period of the Seemandhra employees and the service of the contract employees and issue of health cards.
The Chief Minister is also travelling intensively in the region. He travelled to five of the 16 districts that were pounded by the early spells of the North East monsoon, before Deepavalli. The loss of property in nine of the 16 districts battered by the torrential rains was put at Rs.3,732 crore. Nalgonda, which has borne the brunt of the calamity accounted for the highest of Rs.1,455 crore.
Kiran Reddy's tour of these rain ravaged districts is ostensibly to make a first - hand appraisal before seeking liberal assistance from the central government. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress President Sonia Gandhi's proposed aerial tour over the rain devastated areas on November 2 may be a boost to the hope of getting substantial help from Delhi. At the same time, the chief minister is using his district tours to improve his image, keep grass root contacts and the rural connect alive in case he decides to launch a new party. Several Seemandhra MLAs having lost hope of returning to the assembly on a Congress ticket are mounting pressure on Kiran Reddy to float a new party and revive their fortunes.
He has by taking on the Congress party bosses created a belief in them about emerging as a force that could counter the influence of the YSR Congress in Seemandhra and fill the vacuum created by the Congress which has backed division. Ministers, MPs and MLAs who see bleak prospects of getting entry into the TDP and the YSR Congress are banking on him. Kiran Reddy has no option but to look to form his own party to ensure his own political survival. But, given his political past, he may not muster support to push that far. "He has always been a loner in politics and therefore will not venture to start a new party," says political commentator C.Narasimha Rao.
But, for the moment, several disgruntled Congress leaders are throwing in their weight during the consultations with the Group of Ministers which has been set up to work out the implementation of the decision to form Telengana. They are striving hard to safeguard the interests of the Seemandhra region, as much as the can, at this stage. However, in trying to safeguard their political careers by forming their own party, they are not likely to be as fortunate as the YSR Congress which is being perceived, by many in the Congress itself, as the frontrunner, besides the TDP, in Seemandhra in the 2014 polls.
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