The Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh Assembly polls will not just determine who rules the two states but indicate which way wind is blowing ahead of 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
The Assembly elections in Rajasthan had almost always been a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP. But for a change, this time, the desert state is witnessing multi- cornered fights in several constituencies due to the presence of a third front led by National People’s Party(NPP). Also, a large number of powerful rebels in both Congress and BJP have the potential to influence the outcome of the elections.
If the BJP lost the 2008 elections mainly due to factionalism over the leadership role of Vasundhara Raje, this time there is a semblance of unity of purpose in the party. Raje is highlighting the Congress government’s alleged corrupt deals and perceived poor governance. The ruling Congress is banking heavily on its pro-poor policies and a slew of populist welfare schemes to fetch electoral dividends. The Congress also harps on some big ticket investments such as the Rs 38, 000 crore refinery in Barmer and the Jaipur Metro as its achievements.
The BJP sees a real chance to wrest power cashing in on the Congress’ ‘double’ incumbency. The BJP leaders hope they can take advantage of the disenchantment of the people with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance(UPA) dispensation at the Centre as well as the Gehlot’s government. In the last Assembly elections, the BJP’s internal squabbles and resentment towards Raje were to a large extent responsible for the party’s defeat.
Its tally reduced to 78 seats in 2008 from 120 in 2003 while the Congress rose to 96 from the previous 56. This time around, Raje and other senior leaders have been taking feedback from all districts and local sentiments while choosing candidates.
Though resentment against Raje hasn’t died down completely, the BJP has adopted a more inclusive approach this time to decide on tickets. The RSS faction in the BJP, which was critical of the Raje leadership ealier, has closed ranks with an eye on the 2014 parliamentary election after Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was declared the party’s prime ministerial nominee.
Raje, during her state-wide Suraj Sankalp Yatra and the election campaign has been raising the issues of poor law and order, increasing crime against women, inadequate power and water supply, bad roads and lack of industrialisation etc. Gehlot, however, does not seem too worried by the BJP’s negative propaganda. He is banking on the multiple development measures announced by his government hoping they will pay electoral dividends.
The Congress is highlighting welfare measures such as free medicines, free medical testing, the Janani Shishu Suraksha Yojana, BPL housing and pension to those above 65 years. There is some concern in the party about Muslims and Jat votes. The communities are unhappy with the government over perceived injustices. The Muslims are angry about the Gopalgarh firing and many incidents of communal clashes.
The Jats in the Marwar region are upset after Mahipal Maderna and Malkhan Singh, a former minister and an MLA, respectively being in jail for the murder of a nurse, Bhanwari Devi. Congress tried to pacify them by giving party tickets to the family members in their pocket boroughs. The Congress got a shot in the arm following the Gujjar leader Col Kirori Singh Bainsla’s appeal to the community to vote for the Congress party.
Third Front
The third front spearheaded by Kirori Lal Meena, independent MP from Dausa, under the banner of the National People’s Party (NPP) of former Lok Sabha Speker P A Sangma, is poised to play an important role in the outcome of the elections. Meena has put up 137 candidates and has vowed to teach both the Congress and the BJP a lesson.
BJP, however, calls it the “B-team” of the Congress. Many disgruntled leaders from the Congress and the BJP have joined his party after they were denied tickets. Political pundits believe that NPP can dent both the Congress and the BJP in the state and in case of a hung Assembly, he could emerge as the king maker.
The NPP leader enjoys strong support from the Meena community in Dausa-Karouli belt (near the state’s Madhya Pradesh-Uttar Pradesh border.) Showing his seriousness, Meena had launched in earnest an intense campaign in the tribal areas of Udaipur hiring a helicopter almost six months ago to make common cause with the Bheel-Meena community, which constitutes a major chunk of ST votes.
Meena, a medical doctor by profession, started his political innings as a BJP member but quit the party in 2008 over his differences with Vasundhara Raje. He then contested as an independent candidate in the 2008 Assembly elections apart from fielding many independents including his wife Golma Devi.
About half a dozen of them came out victorious. These independents later came in handy for the Congress which was five short of an absolute majority in the last elections. His wife became a minister in the Gehlot government. Meena later parted ways with Gehlot as well.
Key issues
While crimes against women are on the rise in the state, the Gehlot’s government has been at the receiving end over sex scandals. Three of the nine ministers who lost their jobs were forced out for their alleged involvement in sex scandals.
Besides Maderna, Ram Lal Jat was asked to resign for his suspicious role in the death of a woman while Babu Lal Nagar resigned over rape. Two Congress MLAs are in jail in crimes relating to women.
Development, law and order, electricity, water and roads are the other issues dominating the elections. Price rise, corruption and perception of a weak leadership are likely to have a bearing as well.
After the anointment of Gujarat Chief minister Narendra Modi as the PM candidate of the BJP, the Congress has cautioned the people of the ‘dangers’ of a Modi-led BJP to the secular fabric of the nation. The BJP dubs the election as a ‘semi final’ before the ‘final’ of 2014.
All these may mean Congress has an uphill task come December 1.
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