Friday, October 04, 2013

Why Jagan’s Jail Release Won’t Benefit Him Politically?

By Usha Revelli / Hyderabad

This is probably the best and biggest news for the YSR Congress in a whole year. For a party that is desperately clutching at straws to keep afloat, the news of the release of its leader Y S Jaganmohan Reddy, needless to say, evoked celebrations that are unprecedented. The overjoyed YSR Congress Party (YSRP) workers distributed sweets to everyone in sight, shouting slogans and spilling over into streets. Some were even seen hugging the policemen deployed on security duty at the court.
It appeared that the party ranks have deluded themselves into believing that their leader was in jail for some kind of noble cause, rather than financial frauds of shocking proportions. 

The fact that Jagan is just out on bail, that too on a severely conditional one, does not seem to matter to the party workers. Nor seems to be the fact that his movement out of Hyderabad is restricted, thus preempting any possibility of political campaigning. 

The CBI had arrested Jaganmohan Reddy on May 27, 2012, after a few calls for enquiry. Since then, it was more or less a known fact that he will eventually be out of prison and it was more a matter of when than whether. Sixteen months after his judicial custody, Jagan was released today as the CBI court, Nampally, Hyderabad,  granted him bail. The CBI has filed the final two of a total 10 chargesheets announcing that its investigation is over. 

While it’s a major respite for Jagan himself, whose only recent outing was to the hospital after a thwarted fast unto death for United Andhra, the release also gives breathing space for his mother YS Vijayamma and sister Sharmila who have been struggling to keep the party activities going somehow and keeping the morale of the cadre high. 

Sharmila did her best, keeping Jagan’s spirit pulsating in her marathon speeches during the recent bus yatra that the party had taken up. Her description of herself as the ‘arrow that has been shot from Jagan’s bow’ had even led to a plethora of funny interpretations and chain-jokes across the political circles in the state. 

YS Vijayamma too went on a fast in support of United Andhra for a brief period before she passed the baton on to her imprisoned son. What does the release mean now? 

In real terms, not much other than a personal relief and a party refresher. 

Since YSRCP has already taken a stance for a United AP, there is little by way of political campaigning they can do in Telangana. The party has been planning another round of whirlwind tours a la their earlier Odarpu Yatra (consolation tour) to re-establish Jagan’s presence on the political platform, but with the Court clearly stating that Jagan cannot move out of Hyderabad without its permission, the proposal for now stands cancelled. 

Will Jagan make a significant difference for the Seemandhra movement is again a moot point. Some leaders in the party feel that his contribution at this point would not be too insignificant as the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party leaders have already taken a lead in the areas with their resignation drama. Jagan’s release may have come a little late in the day for the party to take up any campaign on a major scale and all they can do is wait and watch while playing on along the sidelines. 

One drama, however, that is waiting to unfold is what the Congress calls YSRCP’s imminent merger with it. One after another, Congress spokespersons sound like film heroes who stalk their lady love, assuring her that a union is ultimately unavoidable how much ever she may resist. While Digvijaya Singh had earlier stated that Jagan shares the ‘same DNA’ as the Congress party, the latest suitor is P C Chacko. 

YSRCP, as of now, is ignoring all this flirtation but there is no doubt that the idea is getting gradually nurtured within the party. At this point in time, though, the party stands to lose a great deal if it openly sides with the Congress, given the response the Congress leaders have been getting from the furious masses of the Seemandhra area. 

Political moves in Andhra Pradesh seem like futile battles these days. There is a school of thought that believes that all strategies are aimed at hitting at Chandrababu Naidu, who is seemingly making inroads into hitherto unfriendly political territory. 

But Naidu himself continues to excel at what he does best, sound impressively vague on his party’s stance on the Telangana issue. And, in or out of jail, Jagan it appears will be able to achieve something in real terms only after the elections until which, like everyone else, he needs to pass time.

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