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At the risk of sticking one's neck out, let me predict that Chandrababu Naidu will ally with the BJP ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh. While the former chief minister is yet to make up his mind on whether to return to a working relationship with the NDA, there is tremendous pressure on him from several Telugu Desam leaders and cadre not to spurn the overtures from the saffron party.
"There is no option but to go with the BJP,'' is how a senior leader who has been with the TDP for over 30 years put it. This leader, considered part of Naidu's inner circle, said the TDP needs a fellow traveller to negotiate the political landmines in Andhra Pradesh. The TDP is on a weak wicket both in Telangana and Seemandhra, thanks to a lack of clarity in where it stands on the contentious issue of bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh.
On October 2, Narendra Modi and Naidu will share the dais at a function in Delhi. That is being seen as the first indication that Naidu no longer consider the Gujarat chief minister and BJP's prime ministerial candidate, a political untouchable. Naidu is well aware that the duo being seen together on stage will be a photo-op that will set political tongues wagging but he isn't being prickly about it like Nitish Kumar.
Naidu's biggest regret has been not to withdraw support to the NDA post the Gujarat riots and it was only after his humiliating defeat in the 2004 elections that Naidu snapped ties with the BJP, claiming that the alliance was the reason why the minorities deserted the TDP.
A lot of water has flown down the Krishna ever since and Naidu is being convinced by both TDP politicians with a corporate background and common friends that he has everything to gain and little to lose by allying with the BJP. The argument put forth is that already the Congress-TRS alliance will have the edge in Telangana including the minority vote while those in Seemandhra will go with YSRC. In such a situation, Naidu is being told that he does not have much to lose by way of Muslim votes and that he should instead seek to alter the script by reaching out to the middle classes, a constituency that was once enamoured of Naidu's liberal, pro-development image and one that is now solidly behind Modi.
Naidu has already said that all options are open barring the Congress. A clear indication that he is not shutting the door on the BJP. So far his friends in Andhra Pradesh have been the Left parties, whose domain of influence in the state is limited to a few pockets. But by keeping his channels of communication open with both the BJP and the Left, Naidu is imitating what his father-in-law, the late N T Rama Rao did as the president of the National Front in the late 80s. The Front was supported by both the BJP and the Left from the outside, with VP Singh as the PM.
The BJP has a lot to gain politically if Naidu indeed accepts its friendship request. It will be able to showcase the relationship all over India. And TDP may gain a bit by transfer of votes from BJP's kitty. Remember, the pro-Vajpayee wave post Kargil war was one of the reasons for Naidu's good showing in the 1999 polls in Andhra Pradesh.
One subject of common interest that Modi and Naidu could chat about, apart from the political climate, will be Twitter. Naidu always likes to talk about having ushered in the IT wave in the mid-90s but it is only last week that he got on to Twitter. Modi, in comparison, is a veteran of the world of 140 characters.
And once they decide to tag along and follow each other, @ncbn and @narendramodi can send direct messages to each other.
