As I write this, Y S Jaganmohan Reddy is holding one-on-one meetings with each of his YSR Congress MLAs. Less than 24 hours since he walked out of Hyderabad central prison on bail, Jagan wants to hear how the world in Andhra Pradesh has changed on the ground in the last sixteen months.
The Congress decision on Telangana on July 30 changed the political dynamics in Andhra Pradesh. Unlike the Congress and the TDP, that continued with their ambivalence, the YSRC was quick to make the necessary adjustments in its stance on division on the state.
And taking a decisive pro-united Andhra Pradesh stand seems to have paid off for Jagan as now the YSRC is best placed to take advantage of the political vacuum in Seemandhra (coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions), that account for 25 Lok Sabha and 175 assembly seats.
While those running the apolitical movement in Seemandhra know that Jagan has taken a politically opportunistic stand, they may be willing to condone that and vote for him as they have no other option. That will allow Jagan to emerge as the political face of the united Andhra Pradesh agitation. However, while Jagan stands to gain politically from this, whether the stir gains from his position, is still debatable.
What's even more interesting is that even TRS supremo, K Chandrasekhar Rao went on record, predicting a rich harvest of 140 out of 175 assembly seats in Seemandhra for Jagan. A clear indication that leaders on the other side of the political divide are able to sense that the momentum is with Jagan.
The challenge for Jagan would be ensure synergy between different leaders who are already in the YSRC and the turncoats who will join him closer to the polls. At the moment, the cadre is still unorganised with every leader bringing in his own flock, who may or may not be in sync with what the party stands for.
While he already rides on the united AP and YSR sentiment, what could help Jagan's cause is a possible alliance between Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and the BJP. In which case, Jagan will accuse Naidu of allying with a pro-Telangana party while campaigning in the Seemandhra regions, further denting the TDP's prospects in the region. In addition, he will use the BJP's presence on the TDP bandwagon to woo the minority vote away from Naidu.
By taking an anti-division position, Jagan however has reduced himself to a zero in Telangana region. Most of his leaders have deserted him and gone back to the Congress or are knocking on KCR's door. But the party is focussing on constituencies that have a significant population of people from coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions, who will be averse to vote for pro-Telangana parties. Constituencies in and around Hyderabad fall in that category. Doing exceedingly well in Seemandhra and picking up a few seats in Telangana is Jagan's formula for 2014.
