YSR Congress Party chief Jagan Mohan Reddy’s juggernaut is all set to roll again nearly after 16 months. A sneak-peak was allowed on September 24, the day he was released from Chanchalguda prison on bail. It took him more than six hours to cover the 20 km home. Supporters packed the roads like sardines, craning their necks to catch a glimpse of their leader. His admirers from Rayalaseema districts rent the air with full-throated slogans in his support.
Jagan’s release is being viewed as the beginning of the emergence of a new political order ahead of the polls. “Jackals would be on the run now as the tiger is out of the lair,” one youth, celebrating the occasion of his release, said.
But what will the political kaleidoscope be like? Congress leaders are themselves saying that the CBI did not argue effectively in court on instructions from political bosses. “I have enough information on a secret pact between the Congress and YSR Congress. After my resignation from Lok Sabha membership is accepted, I will let the world know about it,” Vijayawada MP Lagadapati Rajagopal said, causing embarrassment to the Congress leadership.
According to analysts, the pact could be that YSR Congress would support UPA after elections. As the Congress is firm on dividing the state, it has no prospects in Seemandhra. But Jagan with his Samaikyandhra slogan should be able to win a majority of the 25 LS seats in Andhra and Rayalaseema and support the UPA at the Centre. He would covertly help the Congress in dividing the state.
In Telangana, the Congress proposes to either have an electoral understanding with Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) or seek merger of the parties. This way, the Congress hopes to have a majority of 17 LS seats in Telangana. If the state is divided by clubbing two Rayalaseema districts—Anantapur and Kurnool—with Telangana, the resultant states would have 21 seats each.
The Congress is keen on dealing a mortal blow to Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu who is raring to stage a comeback to power either in divided or united Andhra. “Naidu’s flip-flop policy on Telangana is going to cost him dearly in both Telangana and Andhra,” said Congress leader Mallu Ravi. Telengana TDP leaders are not very sure if the people would trust their leader and show any kindness. They hope to put up a respectable performance in the elections if BJP joins hands with them since the saffron party is pro-bifurcation.
Jagan’s arrival is also causing panic in the Congress. As it is, the party leadership itself has vacated space in Seemandhra, pinning hopes on Jagan. Watching the party’s total capitulation in Seemandhra, Congress leaders have begun looking for greener pastures in YSRC. The latest to quit and join YSRC is Animal Husbandry Minister P Viswarup.
As far as the biggies are concerned, there seems to be no hope but to move to the Centre, if the UPA comes to power again. For instance, Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy or APCC president Botcha Satyanarayana do not fit anywhere else. Neither do Union Ministers like Sambasiva Rao, Purandeswari, M M Pallam Raju and Chiranjeevi.
As far as the BJP is concerned, the Congress has dealt a pre-emptive blow by announcing Telangana days before Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was to address a public meeting in Hyderabad. By taking the decision to divide the state, the Congress has virtually robbed the Telangana slogan from the party. Having committed itself to a separate Telangana, the BJP has no prospects in Seemandhra either. In case the BJP has a tie up with TDP, it may help Naidu but not the BJP since Naidu is know as the one who always wanted the state to remain united.
Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), which has seven seats in the Assembly and has severed its links with the Congress, has been friends with YSRC for long. Party chief Asaduddin Owaisi is understood to be in touch with Jagan and in fact he was used as an emissary by the Congress to seek the support of YSRC in the presidential elections. As MIM is against division of the state, it is more than likely that it would join hands with Jagan.
The TRS is against any truck with communal forces. Their leader T Harish Rao said, if they align with any communal party, it becomes difficult to protect the interests of all communities. They also seem sure that Jagan will not try to make any inroads into Telangana. It is hard to miss the new found camaraderie between TRS, Congress and YSRC. “He will sweep not less than 140 seats in Seemandhra of the total 175 seats,” KCR is reported to have commented.
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