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By Sanjay Singh / Delhi
Things have become very exciting in the BJP. Faced with LK Advani’s refusal to budge from his position on Narendra Modi’s immediate coronation as prime ministerial candidate, some very swift and strong moves are being made by hardcore protagonists of the Gujarat chief minister on two fronts.
First, make some last ditch efforts to convince him of the inevitability and second; if that does not happen then move to bulldoze his opposition in such a manner that he ends of becoming completely marginalized. That leaves us in a political situation with two possible scenarios. In the first,the announcement could be made without convening a parliamentary board – which means that the decision will be made via diktat and not consensus.
Party president Rajnath Singh is technically empowered to make such an announcement on the basis that he already has consulted with parliamentary board members, chief ministers and other stake holders.
But this course of action will be difficult, given that the longstanding official stance of the BJP has been that it is the prerogative of the parliamentary board to not only decide who should be the prime ministerial candidate, but also when the name should be announced.
The second scenario if if Singh calls a structured meeting of parliamentary board, discuss the issue there, and let the two sides – for and gainst Modi – slug it out. This would effectively pit the likes of party patriarch LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj, and Murli Manohar Joshi, against Arun Jaitley, Venkaiah Naidu, Ramlal, Thawarchand Gehlot and Rajnath Singh.
With a directive from the RSS, Nitin Gadkari and Ananth Kumar could be on Modi’s side which would allow Rajnath to steamroll Advani’s opposition and finally make the announcement. But this could result in a potentially disastrous, highly public internal bloodbath that the Congress is sure to pounce on.
Rajnath Singh is more likely to go with the first option, announce the decision on his own and deal with the fallout, if any. He could site the precedent of how LK Advani who at the peak of his popularity, post the Ayodhya movement, had suo-motto made an unilateral announcement of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s name as the Prime Ministerial candidate at a public rally in Mumbai in 1996. Advani had later approached the parliamentary board for approval.
Though the two situations, then and now, Advani for Vajpayee and Rajnath for Modi, is not exactly comparable it can certainly be used as a precedent. The problem for the party is that what should have been a grand, joyous and celebratory occasion will be mired by the inevitable rejection of Advani, who along with Vajpayee was counted as the tallest leader of the party since inception and was credited with building the party up.
A section of party leaders who are supportive of a hard push to make Modi’s de-facto position as prime ministerial position official at the earliest say, “if that is the case then let it be”. They also hope that a tough position against Advani will also silence his known followers even if they don’t immediately switch sides. Party sources in sync with the ongoing moves and counter moves told INN: “there has been a definite shaping up of the mood since yesterday in the BJP and the RSS.
The announcement of Modi as prime ministerial challenger can’t delayed till the conclusion of five state assembly elections. This has to happen, this an inevitability that nobody should fail to understand.” Though the RSS had clearly told the BJP that their preferred choice was Modi, they had not given the party a deadline to make an announcement. Given the current impasse however, it may choose to end its passive role and intervene decisively.
The argument lately gaining ground is that if Advani could withstand the combined might of the RSS, then that would be detrimental to the clout of the ideological fountain head in the long run and may redefine the RSS-BJP equation. Suresh Soni, against who Advani had reportedly spelt out his grudges to RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat after the Goa conclave, only two months back, is said be the key person pushing this line of argument.
BJP president Rajnath Singh is still continuing with his “consultation” process though, and is claiming that that there is no conflict within party. But the reality could not be more different. Senior Bihar BJP leader and former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi made a rather nasty comment against Advani on his twitter feed, though he did not initially name him.
“Politics is the only profession in which people aspire till their last. Ministerial berth can resurrect a dead politician?.” This was in direct contrast to what Subramanian Swamy, only a day ago had said in his tweet, “Advani was the favoured candidate for PM in 1996. But he chose then to make a sacrifice then. It is wrong to say PM aspiration is behind it.” In his second tweet, posted a minute after his first tweet Sushil Modi was more direct.
“Adavaniji has failed to gauge the public mood. Advaniji himself declared Atalji as PM candidate now also he could have done the same for Namo.” Former Advani aide Sudhindra Kulkarni has hit out against Narendra Modi saying that the current maneuvering would give credence to the perception that the Gujarat chief Minister is socially polarising. “The critics would easily target that how could a person who is not unanimous leader of even his own party be leader of the nation”, Kulkarni said.
How Advani and some others would react if Rajnath Singh finally chooses to discard their reservations and rush to make an official announcement of Modi’s PM candidature is anybody’s guess at this stage. Some Advani supporters are asking if forcing through the announcement would really help Modi and the BJP’s cause. If so much of the party’s energy and strategists vigour is going in just projecting him, it will compromise the party’s ability to fight and throw out the Congress on readymade social and political planks.
The next few days are going to be action packed in the BJP. Nobody in the party is willing to say how exactly its going to unfold. But the play button has already been pressed.
