Sunday, August 04, 2013

Special Report: Telangana Tied To Gloomy Election Survey

By Santwana Bhattacharya / Delhi

Faced with multiple challenges on social and mainstream media, the Congress top brass has been allowing unprecedented moves. Setting up three separate departments headed by relatively younger party members — Ajay Maken for quick communication with media, Sandeep Dikshit for research and input supply and Deepender Hooda for Twitter/Facebook — shifting the old war-horses, was one such measure.

Another move has been to change the “internal dynamics” of the party. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi has been holding meetings, two states at a time, at 24 Akbar Road every second or third day, turning the AICC headquarters into temporary fortress manned by SPG men at the gates.
A slothful party burdened by history of a century-and-a-half, which rarely ever started functioning before sundown, is now up and about by noon, with a media strategy for the day already rolling out in succession.

The extraordinary measures are for extraordinary situations. Congress internal surveys have thrown up uninspiring results. “No one is denying that the situation is not too good. We are in a fight,” admitted a Congress war-room hand, quickly pointing out that despite the “10-year incumbency” the party is not down and out.

The survey has shown some hope in the southern and the north-eastern states, where Congress’ main rival BJP has not much foothold. Hence, the sudden burst of actions on the southern front. Whether it backfires or not, we are told, the Congress high command has taken a firm decision on Telangana. The spate of resignations, threats and protests from Seemandhra, Congress leaders claim, have been factored in. Despite denials, the party top-brass “is seeing the crisis through the prism of parliamentary and assembly seats.”

Next, the Congress president turned her attention to Kerala where the Oommen Chandy government has been under siege. Sonia held a long meeting with Kerala PCC chief Ramesh Chennithala to see if he can be inducted into the Chandy cabinet with a bit of persuasion, but the issue has been set to rest as Lok Sabha elections were a bigger priority.

A meeting of Karnataka state unit and in-charge was left to Rahul as it was seen to be the least of the Congress’ trouble points. But for Tamil Nadu, where the party is virtually in a limbo, and which is the home of Finance Minister P Chidambaram, quite back-channel moves are on from the top. Defence Minister A K Antony and External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid have come on board to organise a meeting between the Tamil Nadu fishermen association and their Sri Lankan counterpart, to address one of the most emotive issues in the state. It is one of the measures to stall a complete political wipe in the state in the next election.

The Congress/UPA Government hopes to make some peripheral gains from the Koodankulam nuclear power plant once it starts generation and helps overcome the acute power crisis in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. But, in all this, the man with some base in the State, Shipping Minister G K Vasan, remains a curiously silent element.

On the North-East, the AICC did an unusual thing as holding a separate high-octane briefing on the special financial package that have been given to the seven states, of which the Congress has big stakes in Assam.

Amidst all this, there is a fierce debate on in the Congress on whether to advance the polls to the end of 2013 or allow it to happen on schedule around March-April. According to the war-room sources, younger leaders are raring to go and would like a year-end election coinciding with the assembly polls in Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir. The Congress at best can retain the states that it already has in its kitty.

A factor that the Congress never mentions in public, but is a matter of concern is how the Narendra Modi factor plays out once he hits the road with his no-holds-bar oratory. Those in favour of advancing the polls have argued that it would give Modi/BJP less time to prepare and queer the pitch.

The proponents of election-on-schedule, who are also the heavyweights of Congress core group, are arguing that it will not allow the party time to make gains on policy initiatives like Direct Benefit Transfer and food security. “For the results of these schemes to percolate down, we need to give another six-to-eight months,”  a senior Cabinet Minister said. The last call will always be Sonia Gandhi’s.