Telangana, the only region in India where the combined population of backward castes, Scheduled Castes and Tribes and minorities form an overwhelming majority, might not see these groups in the seats of power when the new state is formed. The same old communities that have held power in the past are likely to retain their strong foothold, at least for the next couple of general elections.
According to analysts and activists there is no hope of repetition of the UP or Bihar experiment in Telangana in the 2014 elections as the backward castes are sharply divided and lack formidable leadership.
Over 50% of the Telangana population of about four crore comprises OBCs while the share of Scheduled Castes is 17%, Scheduled Tribes 7%, minorities 15% (13% Muslims and 2% Christians and others).
Traditionally the Congress has been led by the Reddys and the Telugu Desam by Kammas. The TRS supremo, K Chandrasekhar Rao is a Velma, a forward cast, and BJP’s state president is G Kishan Reddy. With the Kammas out of competition as their population is concentrated in Seemandhra the Reddys are likely to coopt the Velmas or the Doras who are less than two per cent, like Brahmins, but wield considerable political clout. The other three groups that the Reddy have carried along in the past are the dalits, Muslims and Christians. More or less this conglomeration led by the Congress will hold during the next round of elections.
On the other hand, the TRS, if not merged with the Congress, would try to poach the traditional voters of both the Congress and the TDP. The reiteration of TRS chief KCR that his party, if it comes to power, would make a dalit chief minister of Telangana might cut some ice with the SCs and STs. In the past he had also said that the deputy chief minister of the new state would be a Muslim, but lately he has stopped repeating this statement.
The Reddy-led BJP has laid its eyes on the OBC voters that have been the mainstay of the TDP. But with all parties vying for the OBCs the possibility is that their votes would be heavily divided. It could take several years for the BJP to make a real impact on the OBC vote in Telangana. The major subgroup castes among the OBC are Yadavas, about 9 per cent, Goudas 5 per cent, Mudiraj 4.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent Padmashalis. The Munur Kapus that are categorized as forward caste (Kapus) in Seemandhra are only two per cent in Telangana but have been able to corner considerable political power.
Then there is a group of different castes that goes by the generic name of Vishwa Brhamins that stake about 5% share in the total OBC population. There are also some smaller but politically conscious groups of Mangalis (barbers) and Chakalis (dhobis or washermen). S Simhadri of Osmania University, a keen observer of caste equations in the country, said that the lack of strong leadership among the OBCs, SCs and STs allows a free run to those who have always been in power.
Bhangiya Bhukiya, an authority on the history and culture of Lambadas, agrees with Simhadri but is hopeful of the future. “The biggest contribution of T struggle is that it has created political consciousness among the all the marginalized sections. The next stage in this consciousness is to work for political and economic empowerment. I am sure many of the marginalized communities would be think hard on how to achieve unity so as to counter the traditional power blocks,” he said.
Analysts believe that emergence of leadership is a long drawn process. Therefore, continuation of struggle for social justice is the only option left for the marginalized sections of T society to get their due share in power in the future.
