The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government is staring at an uphill task if it intends to extend its rule for another five years as a survey shows that its popularity is fast dipping. The Bharatiya Janata Party is making strategic inroads despite a poor show in the last two general elections of 2009 and 2004.
A study conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) revealed that nearly half the people who were surveyed are satisfied with the performance of the BJP as the main Opposition at the Centre.
What could alarm the Congress, is that 33 percent of the respondents preferred the BJP for good governance and administration while only 26 percent went with the Congress.
In 2004, when the same question was asked during a similar nationwide survey, the gap between the BJP and the Congress was much less.
The sample size for 2013 is 19,062 while it was 20,854 in 2011.
In the states where there is a direct contest between Congress and BJP, satisfaction with BJP’s performance as an Opposition is higher than the overall satisfaction nationally.
The CSDS survey said that people’s satisfaction with UPA 2′s performance has declined from 49 percent two years ago (in 2011) to 38 percent now. While in the 2011 study, 14 percent of the respondents were fully satisfied with the work done by the government, the figure now is down to 10 percent.
The latest study showed that conversely the figure for those fully dissatisfied has gone up from 18 percent in 2011 to 27 percent in 2013.
The dissatisfaction with UPA’s performance is higher across all categories—rural, towns and metropolitan cities—and among all classes of people. The figures for satisfaction among all categories of locality and class are worse than they were in 2011 (not shown in the table). However, the Congress can seek some solace in the fact that among SCs, STs and Muslims, satisfaction is higher, although it is down compared to two years ago.
In the 2013 survey, 39 percent of the SCs are satisfied with the UPA government and 37 percent are not. Among the ST population in the country, 38 percent are happy with the UPA but 33 percent are not. The CSDS survey also said that 41 percent Muslims are fine with UPA 2 while 34 percent expressed their dissatisfaction.
Quite unbecoming of the believed trend, it is not price rise but lack of development that has put UPA 2 in the backfoot. The survey observed that lack of development is the main reason for dissatisfaction, particularly in the rural areas. In urban areas, corruption is the main cause for dissatisfaction. Price rise is the second most important reason for dissatisfaction in both rural and urban areas. However, 81 percent did feel that price rise was steep since 2009 and 69 percent also felt the same for corruption.
As a whole, 21 percent cite lack of governance as the top reason for disliking UPA 2, of which 23 percent are from rural India and 17 percent from urban areas.
Price rise was pointed out by 17 percent of the respondents as the primary reason of dissatisfaction with the UPA. Here, 16 percent are from rural background and 18 percent are from urban areas. From the urban India category, 23 percent said rampant corruption keeps them away from UPA 2 while this figure is 14 percent in rural India. Pan-India 16 percent disowned UPA 2 for corruption, the survey found.
What was noteworthy in the CSDS survey is that all state governments are rated higher than the Central government. The approval for the UPA 2 government stands at 38 percent across India. Satisfaction with the Central government’s performance is lowest in Jharkhand which is 23 percent and ironically highest in Gujarat at 55 percent.
The gap between satisfaction with the state government’s performance and Centre’s is highest in Madhya Pradesh. While 82 percent are happy with Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in the state, only a mere 31 percent are satisfied with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
For UPA, it is now difficult to look back and call it a decade of glory as the proportion of those who opted for both UPA 1 and UPA 2 has declined compared two years ago, and the proportion of those saying both terms have been equally bad has gone up. In the lastest survey, 13 percent are of the view that both UPA 1 and UPA 2 terms were equally good, while 22 percent believed that both the UPA terms have remained equally bad.
UPA 2 has been rated negatively on most fronts. Among farmers, a greater proportion feels that their situation has deteriorated than improved since 2009. Similarly among women, 33 percent felt that their safety deteriorated over the last four years. The only issue where the UPA fared better is on maintaining religious harmony as 44 percent supported it.
Among the UPA’s flagship programmes, MNREGA is the most known of followed by farmer loan waiver and scholarships for minority students. A total of 78 percent of the respondents in rural areas are aware of MNREGA and 47 percent among them claimed to have benefited from it.
When it comes to the farm loan waiver scheme, 64 percent of the farmers have heard about it and 30 percent benefited from it. The scholarship scheme of the government for minority students is heard about by 55 percent of Muslims and 41 percent claimed to have benefited from it.
Across the 18 states where the CSDS survey was conducted, 54 percent of the respondents have not been benefited from any welfare scheme of the UPA government. While 28 percent of the respondents benefited from at least one scheme, 18 percent benefited from more than one scheme or initiative of the UPA government. The benefit from schemes is higher in rural India than urban India, the study said.
The survey found that awareness about proposed UPA schemes and legislations was very low among the target groups, but support for them among those who are aware of them is quite high. Only 19 percent of the poor are aware of the Food Security initiative of the UPA government. However, 71 percent showed support to the scheme when they were told about it.
Similarly, 21 percent of the poor are aware of the direct cash transfer scheme of the UPA and 68 percent among them support it. With the Land Acquisition Bill, 22 percent of the farmers are aware and 49 percent among those who are aware supported it.
The CSDS study found that 39 percent of all Aadhaar card holders and 47 percent of the poor could not talk about any benefit out of it. However, among those who said they have an Aadhaar card, 34 percent said it had helped as a proof of identity, 13 percent said it helped them access government schemes better and eight percent said it helped them open a bank account.
