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India has been named among the countries that face a high risk of importing the deadly MERS or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus that has claimed 42 lives out of the 80 recorded cases worldwide. Scientists have warned India that the new SARS-like virus, which emerged in the Middle East, could spread faster and wider during the two Muslim pilgrimages of Umrah and Haj, involving millions of people, in the next few months.
Scientists analysed worldwide airline traffic and Haj data to predict population movements in and out of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East during the two mass gatherings to help countries assess their potential for MERS introduction via returning travellers and pilgrims.
Scientists from St Michaels Hospital in Toronto on Saturday named India as one of the countries facing high risk. Around 1.7 lakh Indian Muslims will go for Haj this year. Researchers led by Dr Kamran Khan, an infectious disease physician, said, “With millions of foreign pilgrims set to congregate in Mecca and Medina between Ramzan and the Haj, pilgrims could acquire and subsequently return to their home countries with MERS, either through direct exposure to the as-of-yet unidentified source or through contact with domestic pilgrims who may be infected.”
The team found that of the 16.8 million travellers who flew on commercial flights out of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates between June and November 2012 – which corresponds to the period starting one month before Ramzan and ending one month after the Haj – 51.6% people had destinations in just eight countries: India (16.3%), Egypt (10.4%), Pakistan (7.8%), Britain (4.3%), Kuwait (3.6%), Bangladesh (3.1%), Iran (3.1%), and Bahrain (2.9%).
Mumbai and Kozhikode were among 12 cities – others being Cairo, Kuwait City, London, Bahrain, Beirut, Dhaka, Karachi, Manila, Istanbul and Jakarta – that received more than 350,000 air travellers between June and November 2012 from the four MERS-affected countries. Scientists, therefore, say there’s high potential for the virus to spread faster and wider in India during the two annual events that draw millions of domestic and foreign Muslims to Saudi Arabia.
The first is the Umrah, a pilgrimage considered particularly auspicious during the month of Ramzan which began on July 9 and ends on August 7.
