The BJP’s struggle to tackle the Congress on economic policies continues. When Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi was anointed as the chief election campaigner of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) last month, the move was expected to help India’s principal opposition party frame a clear and coherent message ahead of the 2014 general elections. Events over the past few weeks seem to belie such expectations, raising disturbing questions about the BJP’s trajectory and the nature of the political debate in the country.
To be sure, the BJP seemed to have started on the right note after recovering from the initial resignation theatrics of senior party veteran L.K. Advani. Modi and BJP president Rajnath Singh seemed keen to project an alternative agenda of “effective governance” to capitalize on the failures of the ruling Congress party-led government.
The party also seemed intent that it wouldn’t be sidetracked by the secular versus communal debate. Singh went so far as to announce the preparation of a vision document for minorities, which he claimed would expose the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA’s) hollow secular claims and position the BJP as the deliverer of justice. The BJP’s original plan seemed clear: deliver a message of aspirational politics, and steer the secularism debate to its advantage.
The BJP has, however, failed to stick to that plan. Whether it is Amit Shah’s statement on the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya or Modi’s poor choice of words (“burqa of secularism”) in responding to critics, the party seems to have abandoned the fight to establish its secular credentials already. Perhaps it was the exit of Nitish Kumarthat led to the change. Or, perhaps the BJP realizes that it can only win limited victories in the secular debate. Going for the jugular and exposing the big chinks in Congress’s secular armour—whether it be the party’s failure to follow up on the Srikrishna report on the 1993 Mumbai riots in Maharashtra, or the largest post-partition displacement of Muslims, in Assam, a year back—might after all alienate the BJP’s own cadre.
Even on governance, the message is incoherent. Modi’s ambivalence on key national issues such as the food security law and the reluctance to spell out an alternative reform agenda means the BJP is yet to find its voice on key economic matters. Although the combined achievement of chief ministers in BJP-ruled states is indeed enviable, at the national level, the BJP has been unable to challenge the Congress party as it drove the economy to ruin over the past five years. The BJP’s struggle to take on the Congress on economic policies continues.
There is a growing risk that the BJP will switch its original plan for a less challenging alternative: one that focuses on consolidating Hindutva votes and relies on populist economics to reach out to the rest of the electorate. That will be a loss both for the country and the party.
As this newspaper has pointed out earlier, the growth of India’s middle class has created the space for a party that follows liberal economic policies. The BJP’s inability to fill that space will result in an easy walkover for the Congress. After having driven the economic growth engine to a sinkhole, the Congress will only welcome the hellhole of identity politics.
Attempting to polarize the Hindu vote does not seem to be a very bright electoral strategy either. It is worth mentioning, that even at its peak, religious mobilization only paid limited electoral dividends for the BJP.
The party was routed in state assembly elections in 1993 and 1994, held in the aftermath of riots sparked by the demolition of the Babri Masjid in December 1992, and the bruises were most severe in the so-called heartland states of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Twenty years later, it makes little sense for the “party with a difference” to talk of building tomorrow’s India while fighting yesterday’s battles.
The BJP’s original plan may be challenging but the returns are justifiably large. In a country where changing demographics and rising education levels are rapidly altering voter preferences, attempting to frame an alternative governance agenda will help the party reap a rich crop of young and first-time voters. Discarding the BJP’s original plan not only wastes the anti-incumbency wave; it will also mean wasting the opportunity Modi presents. Modi’s genuine achievements in Gujarat and his communication skills make him a suitable candidate to spell out an alternative agenda to the electorate.
Such an alternative agenda, based on common sense economics, is also the only real choice the BJP can offer to Indian voters. The choice between Congress-sponsored voodoo economics and BJP-sponsored religious medievalism won’t be much of a choice at all.
