Will Modi End Up Becoming Next Advani In BJP?

By M H Ahssan / Hyderabad

For those supporting or opposing the rise of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP’s Goa conclave was the event to watch for. While the most ardent of his backers hoped for his anointment as the party’s PM candidate, others, with perhaps equal  anticipation, looked forward to tear into Modi’s elevation in the party.

However, the BJP leadership did the smart thing by keeping its cadre and those opposed to the Gujarat Chief Minister pleased. With party patriarch LK Advani still not ready to bite the Modi-bait and the disenchantment of allies like JD(U) with the Gujarat CM, the party has taken a smart step to test waters.
By declaring Modi as it’s election campaign chief  the party has projected him as a person of eminence, and yet it did not go the whole hog and declare him the Prime Ministerial candidate – a move which would immediately ask voters and allies to identify the party with him alone.

Abheek Barman in his editorial of The Economic Times points out that Modi might be caught in the same trap that LK Advani was in the prime of his political career, and will thwart his Prime Ministerial ambitions. Drawing parallels with Advani’s career, Barman points out that, like Modi has a communally divisive image thanks to the Gujarat riots, Advani’s Rath Yatra in the 1980s and the 1990s had a similar polarising effect. Barman says about Advani:

"He led the Rath Yatra that polarised India in the late 1980s and early 1990s, with communal riots following in the wake of his tour. This yatra culminated in the demolition of the Babri masjid in Ayodhya by RSS goons, with Advani cheering on at the site. This sparked riots all over India and the retaliatory Bombay blasts of 1993. Advani was the strategist and organiser, a street fighter who led BJP from two seats in 1984 to 161 in 1996."

However, when it came to choosing the Prime Minister, the party went with Atal Bihari Vajpayee – man who doesn’t evoke extreme responses from either the political class or an average citizen. Barman points out, that the Gujarat Chief Minister could find himself in a similar position. He says the present political climate in India is reasonably swayed by the interests of regional parties.

In the national elections in 1991, the vote share of national parties was 81 percent. During the last elections in 2009, Congress had just 29 percent of the votes and BJP 19 percent, implying that the regional parties weighed heavily in deciding which national party stayed in power. With Modi, therefore, the BJP runs the risk of losing a bunch of possible allies – former NDA ally Trinamool Congress, SP and BSP will not tie up with a party which projects Modi as PM for  fear of losing minority votes, the JD(U) had already sounded the bugle against Modi and parties like DMK will think twice before falling in line with the BJP’s plans. BJP, sans Modi as Prime Minister, however, may have better chances at a more unified ally and voter support.

As Barman explains, with Modi as their PM candidate, the BJP might hope for a unified Hindu vote. However, Hindu voters too don’t follow the same list of interests. Barman elucidates:

The Hindu vote has never come as a bloc. It has come as votes for or against Jats, Lingayats, Yadavs, Dalits, communists and so on.

Understandably, therefore, the BJP will wait and watch how the country warms up to Modi as a possible national face of the part. If the results are not flattering, Modi might be relegated to a being strategist who goads a section of people to vote for the party like Advani was. His PM ambitions will have to wait.