The odds are tough against him, but here’s what it will take if he wants to be the PM. There’s little dispute about BJP entering the 2014 election race with Narendra Modi as the general. The more important question is, can he win? Or perhaps the more important one for the BJP, what will it take to win?
This article is not written with the intent to back the BJP. It is merely a set of actions and events that need to happen if they want to see Modi as PM. As Indian citizens our best outcome is if there’s a tough contest, with each side putting in their best.
With this intent the following game plan for winning 2014 is being offered. Some of the suggestions may not be what you call straight or fair. However, if you try to be that in Indian elections, your result will be a big zero. If the end intent is good, which is to change India for the better, perhaps the means can be unconventional. Anyhow, here is what it may take for Modi to become the PM.
One, work on the fence-sitters. Modi polarises opinion, a fact unlikely to change. A cult-like fan following on one hand, to absolute haters on the other, people’s opinion on Modi is divided. Convincing either side to switch is never going to work. However, there’s a large group of fence-sitters, particularly new voters, who still haven’t made up their mind about him. They can be convinced.
However, an inspiring speech or the right slogan won’t do it. They can’t be marketed to. They have to be persuaded on a one-onone basis. An army of educated, not overtly political volunteers, say one lakh in total or 200 per constituency is required. They’d work one-on-one on no more than eight families, or about 20 votes a day. This would be the level of micro-campaigning required to convince people about the merits of electing someone like Modi.
Trust needs one-on-one interaction, not mass media advertising. Since this process is time and labour intensive, fencesitter voter data and the right message kit with the volunteers would be important. Modi is one of the rare leaders to pull this
kind of support together given his popularity amongst the youth. If one lakh volunteers can work 200 votes each in total, that’s 20 million votes, enough to cause a swing on his side.
Two, the BJP needs to back him completely and be clear on the actual benefits India will have from having a leader like him, apart from just getting rid of the Congress. For instance, Modi will have been CM of a state earlier. This will enable a better Centrestates relationship, often in jeopardy these days. Or, Modi’s decisiveness (after all, they did take a decision in Goa) is something India might badly need.
The focus on job creation can be another one where the youth will respond well. Whatever he is offering, should be clear to the BJP, and eventually to the electorate. Also, the constant references to Gujarat need to stop. What can you do for India, is more important than what was done for Gujarat.
Three, social engineering in the ticket allocation process is vital. Modi supporters are often less caste-conscious as voters. That allows him greater flexibility to field candidates of the caste that will attract the most number of caste-conscious voters (something Congress does extremely well too).
Four, the right amount of saffron-ness. The BJP and the RSS have the occasional tendency to slip into tilak, pagdi and sword photo-op mode. While there’s nothing wrong in such symbolisms, it further consolidates the Muslim vote already against him. Any sign that Modi will bring back the tilak-sword era only exacerbates the fear some have of him.
However, this doesn’t mean there should be nothing Hindu about the campaign. If the Congress will target Muslims, BJP may have little choice but to target Hindus. However, positive Hinduism will work better with the youth. Positive Hinduism is about making India modern, safe, scientific, free, liberal and a society with good values. Rather than attacking other religions and saying Hinduism is better, it should be about how we can be better Hindus. Cleaning up some of our holiest temples, infected with bad management and corrupt priests, would be a wonderful step for instance.
Five, one additional source of votes is consolidating the female vote. Safety of women is a concern valid enough today for a section of women to switch their votes. Modi’s tough, no-nonsense image makes him seem like the kind of guy who can deliver on it. He can win this vote, but his remedies for women’s safety should not be regressive. Any attack on the personal freedom of the youth will backfire badly. People need safety, but they also need personal freedom and choices.
Six, Modi needs to deal with 2002. Not in an awkward, avoidat-all-possible-costs manner, but take it head-on. This will require some personal risk and introspection. The answers will have to come from within. Tough questions need to be answered.
Narendra Modi did well in Goa, but Delhi is no beach town. To get there, Modi, and a fully supportive BJP, need to pull out all stops. The odds are tough, and if he can make that happen, it will be a minor miracle. But then again, isn’t our country the land of miracles?
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