A divorce after 18 years of togetherness is never easy. But it doesn’t seem that way for JD(U) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. He is all set to part ways from the NDA and dump the BJP from his government.
For the moment he looks like a winner. He will continue to be chief minister of the state and his party men are happy for many more would become ministers. In this separation the BJP is not entitled to any alimony.
What it can do now is indulge in loud chest-beating and playing the victim card to catch public attention. It will keep trying generating public opinion in its favour and get the caste equation right before the parliamentary polls.
Bihar would be a test case of Narendra Modi‘s popularity. He has never been tested in the state as he has never been there for an election campaign. His supporters in the BJP believe that his persona even in his absence did play a role in last week’s Maharajganj by-election, because the seeds of separation between the JD(U) and the BJP on his name had already started sprouting in public mind and party workers on the ground.
The eventual separation, now a matter of formality, could happen in the next 24 hours or anytime after. While he does so, Nitish Kumar will have to first figure out a technicality and decide on the options he has. If he resigns the entire council of minister would go. In that case he would stake a fresh claim for formation of the government with the support of a few Independents and form a new government in the state minus the BJP. That would completely change the status of the BJP, from ruling party to that of the opposition.
Another option is Nitish Kumar sacks all BJP ministers, including his deputy, also his long-time friend Sushil Kumar Modi, and then fills up the vacant posts from his party MLAs and some Independents.
The situation has arisen because it is the JD(U), the principal partner in ruling alliance is dumping the BJP, not the other way round. The BJP had given its letter of support for Nitish Kumar to be the chief minister to the Governor. The BJP would prefer the JD(U) to part ways from it and get some popular sympathy out of the rough treatment meted out by its senior alliance partner.
The BJP has 11 ministers in the 33-member council of ministers. JD(U) has 22. Nitish can have a total of 36 ministers in his government, so he can have 14 more if he wants. A resignation by the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar than sacking the BJP ministers would be a better idea for it would also give him an opportunity to drop some of his own non-performing ministers.
Though senior BJP leaders, including Rajnath Singh and LK Advani, have spoken to Nitish, he has already made up his mind. His statement in Patna on BJP leaders phone calls to him, “Dua dete hai jeene ki, davaa dete hai marne ki (they wish life to us but administer the medicine of death),” is a clear indicator to the inevitability.
JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav though tried to sound more rational, “Don’t assume that the alliance is over,” but his statement can’t be taken on face value for two reasons, he is an old fashioned politician and shares excellent relationship with Advani, Rajnath, Sushma Swaraj and a whole lot of other BJP leaders; and second even as he is JD(U) party president, he does not call the shots. It is Nitish Kumar who has to take final decision on when to make the inevitable happen.
It is interesting to note that even as Nitish, as on date is part of the NDA, is already talking as the main protagonist of the Federal or Third Front. He had telephonic talks with his West Bengal and Odisha counterparts Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik yesterday. He is optimistic that the idea mooted by Trinamool leader, could take shape. “We have common cause…we are talking…though it is early to talk about formation of a front but it could take shape in future. Mamata Banerjee‘s view is that Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand have some common problems and we should think about them together. I have also said that these problems which are common. If all of us together understand these problems and form a common front it would be good…. This is at an initial stage,” Nitish said.
Bihar BJP leaders, particularly those in the government, will take some time to come out of the ruling party psyche but they are banking on their own assessment and some surveys that suggest that Modi’s magic would work in next Lok Sabha elections.
Firstpost had earlier noted that a survey done by pollster GVL Narshimha Rao, considered close to the Gujarat chief minister, presented a rather buoyant picture for the BJP – 29 seats if it split from the JD(U). The survey forecast a gloomy scenario for Nitish Kumar if he contested on his own. The prediction suggests that in the parliamentary polls the 16 percent Muslims may not vote en-bloc for Nitish and sizeable votes could also go to the Congress and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD.
While the senior leaders of both the JD(U) and the BJP are maintaining a brave or even bold front, a number of leaders from both sides are gripped by the fear of the unknown.
No comments:
Post a Comment