As Karnataka goes to the polls today to elect a new Assembly, the incumbent BJP, which was staring at a crushing defeat, is counting on a late burst, inspired by Narendra Modi‘s brief but full-throated campaign, to make it a close-enough race to deny the Congress an outright victory.
Pre-poll surveys conducted a month ago, when the candidates’ lists had not been finalised, pointed to a thumping victory for the Congress, but more recent surveys, particularly those undertaken after Modi’s whistle-stop tour of Karnataka, indicate a tightening of the race.
Congress president Sonia Gandhi‘s rallies in urban areas drew sparse crowds, which suggest that the game isn’t quite over yet, although the party’s sway among the rural electorate evidently remains as strong as ever. The disaffection within Congress ranks, with leaders of various factions pulling in different directions, is something of an old disease, and it speaks volumes about the Congress’ inept political management that it appears to have dropped the ball in an election that is so heavily weighted in its favour.
Even so, the BJP has a mountain to climb in terms of wiping out the malefic effects of five years of rotten governance, and its earlier indecisiveness in taking on corruption. As much as the loyal Modi brigade may hype up his ‘magical’ effect, his capacity to sway voters to such an extent as to secure a BJP victory appears overstated. If the BJP does lose its foothold in the South, which had been hard-won, it will have only itself to blame. Even a middling-good performance in the State would have helped establish the party as markedly different from the Congress, and set its campaign for 2014 off to a sound start.
But in the event, if the Congress even squeaks home, it will have earned itself a morale-booster, the impact of which will be felt at the national level. At the Central level, of course, the Congress has a particularly abysmal record in office to defend, and the latest allegation of petty corruption directed at Railway Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal, and the cloud over Law Minister Ashwani Kumar’s continuance in office, have only forced it on the defensive.
In one sense, the Karnataka Assembly elections kick off the election cycle, with more of them scheduled for later this year. In most of those arenas, the Congress faces something of an uphill battle, which is why the party will be looking to milk the prospect of a victory in Karnataka for all its political worth.
Politics has a peculiar dynamics, which doesn’t always abide by common-sense notions of what might work. For instance, for Congress vice-president and heir apparent Rahul Gandhi too, the Karnataka elections could provide the political booster shot that he has been seeking for a while now. Having put himself out in the cause of his party in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, only to face resounding defeat, he is desperate to claim a victory – any victory – and Karnataka offers him the best bet in a long time.
In much the same way that Rahul Gandhi was hailed in 2009, when the UPA returned to power, as a modern-day political Chanakya, the retinue of dynasty loyalists is sure to project a Congress victory – if it does come about – as the result of his heavy-duty campaigning.
But even if it does win, the Congress is certain to be wracked by infighting from the first day in office, given the number of leaders jockeying for the chief ministership.
The elections will witness a four-way contest among the Congress, the BJP, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the KJP of BS Yeddyurappa. The BSR Congress of B Sriramulu too is a significant other in the fray.
All through the day, INN will bring you live coverage of the voting pattern. Stay tuned for all the action.
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