Will Karnataka Polls Usher In More Muslim MLAs?

Muslim voters hold the key as Karnataka braces for assembly elections on May 5. Accounting for 12.5% of the state’s 4.19 crore electorate, Muslims are poised to decide the fate of key political players, mainly the ‘secular’ ones like the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular). The outcome of the poll in 65 assembly constituencies out of 224 will depend on how Muslim voters exercise their franchise. And, this will precisely decide who would rule Karnataka for the next five years. 
    
All this sounds fine but Muslims are concerned about their ‘presence’ in the assembly with their representation hovering in the range of 6 to 12 members in the previous elections. Only in 1978 elections, which had brought the Congress-I to power, a record number of 16 Muslims were elected. Twelve Muslims were elected in 1972, 1989 and 1999 polls. In 1967, 1994 and 2004 elections, only six Muslims were elected each time. In 1957 and 2008, nine Muslims each were elected. The representation was as low as only two Muslim MLAs in 1983, when Ramakrishna Hegde’s Janata Party swept to power, five in 1952 polls, seven in 1962 and eight in 1985 elections.
 
    
Muslims have been getting tickets for contesting Assembly polls from parties like the Congress, including its earlier avatars, and Janata Dal and its predecessors. However, the BJP, which has been contesting these elections from 1983, has shown utter disdain towards Muslims, refusing to field a single Muslim candidate in the 1983, 1985, 1999 and 2008 elections. The party had fielded one Muslim each in 1989 and 1994 and two in 2004 but they failed to get elected. In the current elections also, the BJP has not given ticket to any Muslim candidate. 
    
The Congress and JD(S) are vying with each other to secure Muslim support but chances are that the Congress may get a higher proportion of Muslim votes than JD(S). Contrary to its claims, the BJP and its latest offshoots are unlikely to get any Muslim votes. Since every eighth voter happens to be a Muslim, the stakes are very high for major secular parties as they want to raise their tally of seats. The Congress is setting its eyes on wresting power from the BJP whereas the JD(S) is keen to bag a substantial number of seats to increase its bargaining power in case a hung Assembly emerges after May 5. 
    
The choice before Muslim voters in Karnataka is somewhat limited. They have to choose between Congress and JD (S) as they distrust the three ‘Hindutva’ parties — namely, BJP, B S Yeddyurappa’s KJP and B Sriramulu’s BSR Congress. The BSP, which is contesting most of the seats, is only a marginal player in Karnataka politics. A few other parties are also in the fray but they don’t mean much to the bulk of the electorate. And, when most of the constituencies are poised to witness keen multi-cornered contests with five or more candidates battling it out, the Muslim vote becomes crucial. 
    
The Hyderabad-Karnataka region, comprising six districts — Gulbarga, Bidar, Yadgir, Raichur, Kopppal and Bellary — has a sizeable presence of Muslims, since it was part of the erstwhile Nizam state. This region has remained largely backward for nearly six decades, prompting the Union government to enact a Constitutional amendment providing special status to these six districts by establishing a regional development board and providing for reservations in state government jobs and educational institutions. 

It will be interesting to watch the current Assembly polls in Karnataka as the fate of BJP’s first government in the south hangs in balance. Karnataka is likely to play a key role in the next Lok Sabha elections and partly decide the fate of UPA government as well.