Modi Has Still To Cross The ‘Advani Hurdle’

Barely a fortnight ago, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi delivered a speech to his diehard support base within the BJP, which was intended to fire them up and get them battle-ready. In the language of political lexicon, it was pure “red meat” – hardcore political conservatism that appealed squarely to the foot soldiers who look upon their General to go for the jugular, even if it made political commentators queasy for its “bully boy” tirade.

In contrast, Modi’s video-conference address to the Overseas Friends of BJP in Chicago and New Jersey on Sunday was far less edgy, far more “white meat”. Given that his audience on Sunday was sartorially different – to the extent that they were suited-booted and bandhgala-ed – Modi tailored his speech to appeal to their sensibilities. He pointedly steered clear of  direct criticism of the UPA government and the Congress, and pitched an overarching ‘India First’ narrative that seemed calculated to unite rather than divide.

In his speech at the BJP national council, for instance, Modi likened the Congress to a termite infestation upon the country. In contrast, in his address on Sunday, even the animal menagerie metaphors he invoked were intended to signal inclusiveness. The snake, he said, is known to prey upon the mouse. But the snake that is wrapped around Shiva’s neck, and the mouse that is the mascot of Shiva’s son Ganesha, symbolised the co-existence that characterises a “secular” India, Modi said. And a people who feed ants before they feed themselves need no lecturing from the West on what it means to be humanistic, he noted.

With his three recent public speeches – at the Delhi college, at the BJP national council, and to the party faithful in faraway continents – Modi has in many ways set the terms of the political discourse for the next general elections. And, increasingly, for all the efforts of Modi’s critics, that discourse pivots around ‘development’ as the overarching campaign theme.

Modi has redrawn the contours of the developmental discourse in a way that has political commentators wondering if he is “India’s Ronald Reagan”  who is pointing to a “shining city on a hill” and inspiring India’s impressionable youth to believe that it is an eminently attainable goal.

Even Modi’s political detractors, including Congress leaders, evidently feel compelled to respond to his invocation of the ‘India First’ slogan – and to claim it as their own! Barely hours after Modi’s address, Minister of State for Home Affairs RPN Singh put out this Tweet: Singh’s Twitter profile does, of course, say “India, First, Always” .  Except that Singh was evidently unaware that Modi has been trotting out this definition of secularism for many years now. For instance, at the Pravasiya Bharatiya event in New Delhi in January 2011, he gave the same working definition of secularism. Since then, he has invoked it at least twice – at this event (in Gujarati) and at his Google+ Hangout in August last year.

RPN Singh’s suggestion that Modi appropriated the slogan from his Twitter profile (which he put up only in January 2013) ranks of me-too pettiness, which reflects the Congress’ challenge in countering Modi’s manifest success in setting the terms of the political discourse for the next election. Where once Modi was, in their estimation, a mere regional satrap whose political pronouncements held no significance beyond his vocal army of supporters, today, his voice gets amplified national and internationally – and even scales the walls of the Delhi durbar. Modi represents arguably the most potent threat to the perpetuation of Congress rule. And it doesn’t help that unlike other leaders in the BJP, Modi resorts to “bully boy” tirade and directly targets the Congress.

Former Disinvestment Minister Arun Shourie is normally wary of speaking on behalf of the BJP – since he knows that he is a bit of an outlier in the party, and that his views are oftentimes publicly refuted by more senior leaders in it.  But even he reckons, as he did in Vadodara on Sunday, that the “leadership issue in the BJP is settled” and that Modi is the “most viable candidate” for prime ministership.

Shourie argues that senior BJP leaders will be unable to go against the groundswell of popular support from party cadres to name Modi as the party’s official candidate. But it appears that Modi has at least one big hurdle to scale within the BJP in the physically towering but politically shrunken form of LK Advani.

Everything about Advani’s recent pronouncements suggests that he is playing a Chanakyan game, at the core of which is a calculation that under certain circumstances, he can yet realise his long-unfulfilled ambition to become Prime Minister.

And since that evident strategy revolves around ensuring that Modi doesn’t get into full stride, Advani has ever-so-slyly been chipping away at the Modi-for-PM idea. In his national council speech, for instance, Advani pointedly praised Sushma Swaraj’s eloquence and suggested that the BJP’s strategy in the next election should be focussed on forming an NDA-plus coalition. Given that Modi’s candidature (if it comes about) will be premised on the BJP securing enough seats by itself, without being weighed down by coalition partners’ political sensibilities, Advani’s intervention has been read, correctly, as being intended to stall Modi’s momentum.

Likewise, in an interview to The Week magazine over the weekend, the erstwhile ‘Iron Man’ displays a rusty political diffidence about the BJP’s prospects of winning the 2014 contest (report here), which contrasts sharply with the ‘Yes We Can’ enthusiasm that Modi seeks to instill in party cadres.

Political analysts reckon that Advani will no longer be central in the BJP decision-making process. But Advani has, with his discordant comments, indicated that he is not willing to hobble into a political old-age home. The tide of popular opinion within the BJP may be rolling in Modi’s favour. Yet, Advani perhaps reckons that he can roll back the tide – and, even better, ride it to political fortune.