Will Kiran Government Survive Jagan Scare?

The rat race for Kiran Kumar Reddy to survive the Budget session began as APCC chief Botcha Satyanarayana has announced the expulsion of nine Congress MLAs on Friday.

At a time when the ruling party has already lost the support of MIM, due to which its strength has come down to 155 in the 295 member House, and the YSR Congress asking the main opposition Telugu Desam to move a no confidence motion against the government, what made the PCC chief to announce the decision?

Satyanarayana said that the party has already issued show-cause notices to these MLAs and if there was no response from them, they would be expelled. Eight of the nine MLAs have pledged support to YSR Congress and joined the party.

One reason why the PCC chief dropped the bombshell is that there will be no threat to the Congress government technically as five of the nine expelled MLAs have already resigned which will be accepted by Speaker Nadendla Manohar any day.

With this the House will have 289 members and the magic figure needed for the government’s survival is 145. Since the number of Congress MLAs, after the expulsion of nine MLAs, will be 146 including the vote of Speaker, there is no immediate threat to the government unless some more MLAs quit the party.

The other reason that is cited is the merger bait offered by the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, which has 17 MLAs to the UPA government if the Congress declared Telangana.

If this happens, things may go awry for the Congress as the merger of TRS would result in the mass exodus of the party leaders in the Seemandhra region. The situation will be back to square one as the government will be in minority again.

The third option is abstention of Telugu Desam, which has 86 MLAs, during voting in case a no confidence motion is moved against the government.

The Telugu Desam, which moved the no trust vote in December 2011, said that it has no intention to do so till the completion of the term of the present Assembly in 2014.

The fourth option, which is most unlikely, is the support extended by the YSR Congress if the two parties come to an understanding before Assembly budget session beginning on March 11.

Another reason cited is that it will divert people’s attention from Telangana issue for the time being. If the government collapses, it will take at least six months for formation of the next government and no one knows what will happen at that time.