Five forces reshaping the global economy: A Global Survey

By M H Ahssan

The core drivers of globalization are alive and well, but executives are still grappling with how to seize the opportunities of an interlinked world economy.

An ongoing shift in global economic activity from developed to developing economies, accompanied by growth in the number of consumers in emerging markets, are the global developments that executives around the world view as the most important for business and the most positive for their own companies’ profits over the next five years. Executives also identify two other critical positive aspects of globalization: technologies that enable a free flow of information worldwide and, increasingly, global labor markets. These four trends, of the ten we asked about, also are the ones that the biggest share of respondents—around half—say their companies have taken active steps to address.

In this sixth annual survey asking executives about the forces shaping the world economy,1 there is little change in how respondents view the importance of global trends compared with previous years—either for business in general or for their own companies’ profits (Exhibit 1). Clearly, the financial crisis and economic downturn have not shaken these key trends. Continued faith in the positive effects of globalization combined with a move away from short-term planning likely reflects rebounding optimism about global economic prospects and is consistent with the findings of other McKinsey surveys on the economy.2

In addition to our annual questions on individual global trends, this year’s survey explores for the first time five interconnected themes that highlight the opportunities and challenges faced by global economic integration itself and by companies seeking to profit from it: growth in emerging markets; labor productivity and talent management; the global flow of goods, information, and capital; natural-resource management; and the increasing role of governments.

The findings show that the global economy faces significant challenges as it continues to integrate. For example, most respondents—63 percent—expect increased overall volatility to become a permanent feature of the global economy, and another 23 percent see sharply higher levels of volatility that will undermine the economy’s robustness. In addition, high levels of public debt are a headache in Europe and North America, where most executives fear the debt will have a negative impact on GDP growth.

There are specific corporate challenges too. Half of the respondents are only somewhat optimistic they will be able to find the right talent to meet their companies’ strategic goals. Likewise, only half of the executives reported that their companies have taken steps to address the shift in global economic activity from developed to developing economies—the force that is reshaping the global economy more than any other.