Maoist movement on the wane?

By Ayaan Khan

The inability of the Maoists to strike and disrupt the election process in the state has given a reason for the police to believe that the endgame of the naxalites is near, irrespective of which party or coalition comes to power in Andhra Pradesh. “The number of Maoists in the state is now down to 400. Even though they want everybody to believe that they are lying low and will strike at an opportune time, such a possibility is becoming remote,” an analyst said. “Occasional strikes in Vizag, Khammam and East Godavari are no cause for worry,” he added.

The police claim that it was a combination of political and tactical strategy that shut out the naxals from striking during the elections. Since the breakdown of talks with the naxals in August 2005, the ruling Congress did not show any sign of relenting its pressure on the naxalites.

But what really turned the tide against the naxals was the ambush on the police party in Balimela on Andhra-Orissa border in June last year in which 30 Greyhounds had lost their lives. Even before this incident, rural youth was weaned away from joining the Maoists by the lure of education, training and employment. It is claimed that the police too were restrained from wholesale harassment and torture of those villagers who were not involved in the movement directly.

But the hardcore naxals were not spared, and in a series of combing operations, men were flushed out, forcing the others to either flee the state or abandon the movement altogether. This multi-pronged policy paid good dividends with the majority of the districts particularly in Telangana and Rayalaseema reporting negligible number of Maoist-related violence.

Against this background, if the Congress retains power or forms the next government seeking support from some smaller political parties, it would ensure that the process it has consolidated against the Maoists should reach a logical conclusion of finishing off the movement.

The TDP too has been at the receiving end of Maoist violence with their president N Chandrababu Naidu having a close shave in 2003. Therefore, indications are that if the TDP emerges as a strong partner of the Grand Alliance and forms the government, it would continue with the policy pursued by the Congress and finish off the Maoists from the state soil. But if the Mahakutami partner TRS, which is known for its sympathetic disposition towards the naxalites, emerges stronger within the alliance, the TDP might not have such a free rein.

As against the Congress and Mahakutami, the newly emerging political force in the form of Prajarajyam Party demonstrated its softness towards the Maoists. It allowed many former extremists into its fold and is said to be maintaining good relations with several front organizations of the movement. Sensing the mood in the PRP, the Maoists wanted it to tie-up with the TRS so that they get a party in power that would allow them recover their lost ground. But somehow, this did not happen. Now in the post-election scenario, as predicted by many surveys, PRP on its own would not be in a position to form the next government. The chances are that in a hung assembly, the new party might go with the Congress in forming the government. In that case it would not be able to influence a change in the Maoist polity.