Opinion: The mouse that roared

By M H Ahssan

Never underestimate the wrath of the timid man. The NDA's prime ministerial hopeful, Lal Krishna Advani, has been stung by the surprisingly bitter counter-attacks of Manmohan Singh, who has managed to wound the former by his sharp diatribes on the Kandahar, Babri Masjid, and Gujarat episodes.

The Advani-Manmohan relationship has personal animosity woven into it. For this reason alone it would have made sense for Advani to be doubly careful while attacking Singh. However, when one is blinded by dislike, no one can predict the mistakes one will make. Not surprisingly, the PM has so far come off better in this visceral, verbal skirmish.

Singh skillfully used Advani's own words against him. "When held to the fire (on Kandahar)", the PM intoned the other day, the "iron man" melted; Advani, he added, was found "weeping in a corner" while hoodlums tore down the Babri Masjid. The punchline came on Monday in Mumbai, scene of 26/11: "Advani has the unique ability to combine strength in speech with weakness in action." Touche!

Advani would have fared better if he had chosen his words more carefully, and planned his defence in advance before lunging at the PM. Start with the primary allegation that Singh is a weak prime minister. The choice of the word "weak" here is wrong, for the word is subject to many interpretations.

What Advani probably meant to convey was that Singh was a mere proxy for the real power, Sonia Gandhi. He could have called him a nominee of Sonia or a regent holding fort before the heir apparent was offered the throne. But weak? Manmohan latched on to the word and took Advani apart.

The Indian Airlines hijack to Kandahar in Afghanistan was not the NDA's proudest moment, since it involved capitulation to the demands of the hijackers after complete chaos and confusion at the Indian end. The plane was hijacked in Indian airspace in December, 1999, after leaving Kathmandu. It landed in Amritsar, but was mysteriously allowed to take off after the NSG failed to arrive. The airplane refuelled in Lahore, landed in Dubai and finally reached Kandahar, where the Taliban regime was sympathetic to the hijackers' cause of freeing some militants from Indian jails.

The battle was lost when the plane left Indian airspace, and the relatives of the passengers made things impossible by raising a public ruckus on TV. After that, capitulation was the only option, since the Taliban would not allow commando operations on their territory. The ultimate ignominy was the fact that the foreign minister personally ferried across the jailbirds in exchange for the hostages' safety.

Advani could have expected Singh's counter-attack and prepared his defence accordingly. Among other things, he could have claimed that Kandahar was a mistake from which the government learnt a lot and contrasted that with the subsequent victory in Kargil. He could have pointed out the number of passengers saved as against the lives lost in 26/11. But he was unprepared.

The problem with the word weak is that we are all weak in some areas and strong in others. A traditional wife may lack the formal power of her spouse, but she is certainly not weak. More often than not, she influences outcomes. Singh's situation is similar. He cannot decide policy in areas managed by Sonia, but given the fact that she can't find anyone else to keep the PM's gaddi warm till Rahul is ready, she has her own weaknesses. This was what enabled Singh to push the nuke deal through by offering to quit. Left to herself, she would have dumped the deal to keep the Left on her side.

Advani also missed scoring on Singh's real area of weakness: reforms and the economy. When Advani suggested that the country should try to bring home the booty squirrelled away by Indian nationals in Swiss banks, the PM imperiously pronounced Advani's policies as bankrupt. However, the truth is really the opposite. Currently, it is Singh who has been "weeping" while India's fiscal edifice was being demolished by political hoodlums. He has been unable to rein in unsustainable subsidies and his government has been fiscally irresponsible. Despite holding the title of "reformer", reforms have been absent from his agenda. Advani did not have the confidence or presence of mind to parry the PM's thrust, and thus seemed to retire hurt.

He could also have made the point that the NDA, after negotiating a tougher economic environment during the dotcom bust, took hard economic decisions by raising oil prices and privatising public sector companies. It left the UPA a booming economy. In contrast, the UPA is leaving a tottering economy, where jobs are vanishing. With a fiscal deficit as high as 11 per cent of GDP -- worse than in 1991-92 -- Manmohan has left the economy bankrupt, but Advani had nothing to say about it.

The moral: if you do intend to wound your opponent, don't assume he is too weak to strike back. Advani's overconfidence did him in.