With military defeat imminent and sheer survival at stake, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has offered the Sri Lankan government a unilateral ceasefire in a desperate last-ditch attempt to maneuver its way out of a tight corner. The offer has been rejected by the government as a "joke", as it insisted it will respond only if the Tigers lay down their arms and surrender.
The government's rejection is not surprising. It has ignored pleas from the international community to put the ongoing war in the north on pause to enable tens of thousands of civilians trapped in the no-fire zone to escape.
As far as the government is concerned, the LTTE is on the brink of defeat and its chief Velupillai Prabhakaran is within the army's grasp. This is the man they have been hunting for the past three decades and they will not stop until they have him in the bag, dead or alive.
Sri Lankan army officials claim that the LTTE chief is restricted to a six-kilometer area and is hiding among civilians in the no-fire zone. They say he cannot escape by road as security is very tight.
So is the elusive Tiger chief's luck finally running out?
It does seem so. However, he does not appear to have thrown in the towel yet. He is reportedly planning an audacious escape out of Sri Lanka by submarine, according to LTTE media coordinator Daya Master, who surrendered to Sri Lankan forces last week. Prabhakaran's son, Charles Antony, Sea Tiger (the LTTE's naval unit) chief Soosai and the coordinating army head and intelligence chief Pottu Amman will escape with him.
But the submarine escape plan is unlikely to be easy to implement.
The Sri Lankan navy is keeping a tight vigil along the northeastern coast from Trincomalee harbor in the east to Kankesanthurai on the Jaffna Peninsula using high-speed patrol boats and radars that can apparently detect even the slightest movement in the seas. Besides, there is aerial reconnaissance too. Getting past this will be difficult for the LTTE top brass.
Then there is the question of Prabhakaran's health. The 54-year-old is believed to be leading his fighters in the ongoing battle against the Lankan forces. But he is hardly fighting fit. An insulin-dependent diabetic with a long-standing problem of hypertension and a host of other related complications, the Tiger chief is unlikely to survive the strain of an escape attempt by submarine.
In January, Sri Lanka army chief Sarath Fonseka said Prabhakaran might have already fled, perhaps to Southeast Asia. That triggered much speculation in the media of destinations that the LTTE chief might have escaped to. In recent weeks, army officials have said that Prabhakaran is very much on the island and in the thick of the battle.
It does seem that if Prabhakaran has not already escaped from Sri Lanka to take refuge in Malaysia, India or some other country with a large Tamil population, the Tiger chief's chances of roaming free are rather remote.
In its physical description of Prabhakaran, Interpol describes him in its website as "very alert, known to use disguise and capable of handling sophisticated weaponry and explosives". These skills have helped Prabhakaran elude the armed forces so far.
And luck too was on his side. Sri Lankan army officials admit that they missed capturing him "by a whisker" late last month.
Sri Lankan officials say that they are determined to capture Prabhakaran, dead or alive. Sinhalese nationalists and hardliners in the Sri Lankan establishment would love to see this happen. Prabhakaran in chains is a trophy that the Sri Lankan military and President Mahinda Rajapakse would want to flaunt. But it is likely that the armed forces will shoot him dead if they capture him alive. Apparently, sections in the government aren't keen to put him through "long-winding, messy judicial processes". They would simply like him "out of the way as soon as possible", says a retired Sri Lankan intelligence official.
Although rumors of Prabhakaran negotiating a surrender deal with the government have been making the rounds over the past fortnight, it is highly unlikely that he will give himself up. He has ordered the killing of Tamil leaders who have compromised on the cause of Tamil Eelam, labeling them traitors. He cannot himself compromise on the issue now.
Like other Tiger fighters, Prabhakaran wears a cyanide capsule around his neck. He claims he will swallow it in the event of capture.
It is said that he has instructed his bodyguards to douse him with petrol and burn him in the event of his death or imminent capture so that his Sinhalese enemies cannot desecrate his body. There is the possibility too of the LTTE chief leading Tamils trapped in the "no-fire zone" in a mass suicide.
It is not just the Sri Lankan armed forces that are keeping their eyes open for the Tiger chief. Neighbor India, which is separated by a narrow strip of water from Sri Lanka, has been watching developments on the island closely. Whether Prabhakaran is captured dead or alive is an issue with serious implications for India.
Tamil nationalists in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu have been agitating for months, calling on the Indian government to intervene more forcefully to halt the war in Sri Lanka. They are of the view that Delhi's support for Colombo is responsible for the military reverses of the LTTE and have warned that "rivers of blood will flow" in Tamil Nadu if any harm comes to Prabhakaran. If Prabhakaran were to die or be arrested and humiliated in any way, Tamil Nadu can be expected to explode.
Public support for Prabhakaran, which plunged after the 1991 assassination of former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, has since revived over the past year. The plight of civilians trapped in the fighting has triggered an outpouring of sympathy for Sri Lankan Tamils and to some extent the LTTE.
India is in the midst of general elections and there is concern in the ruling United Progressive Alliance that Prabhakaran's death or capture at this point will prove electorally disastrous for the Congress party and the Dravida Munetra Kazhagam, which have been walking the tightrope on the Sri Lankan issue.
But it is its impact beyond elections that India needs to worry about. Separatist sentiment in Tamil Nadu, which was contained in the 1960s, could get a fresh infusion of life.
Prabhakaran captured alive too is a headache for Delhi. The LTTE chief is wanted in India for his role in the assassination of Rajiv. The LTTE has been a banned organization in India since 1992. If Prabhakaran is captured alive, India would have to ask Sri Lanka for his extradition.
Prabhakaran in an Indian jail would only fuel Tamil secessionist sentiment in India. Therefore, say Indian officials, they would prefer Prabhakaran dead rather than captured, but dead by his own hands.
There was a time in the mid-1980s when the Indian government did not want Prabhakaran dead. They believed that the Sri Lankan government could be forced to provide a reasonable political solution only if Prabhakaran was alive. While that logic still holds good, Delhi recognizes that Prabhakaran is the main obstacle to Tamils seeking a negotiated settlement. It also feels that it can deal with a LTTE minus Prabhakaran, something it cannot do at present, given his wanted status in India.
Given the multiple problems that Prabhakaran - dead or alive - poses, it does seem India would prefer to see the LTTE chief escape to some faraway country.
Would Indian intelligence agencies help him get away? Indian intelligence officials rule out this option vehemently.
"But considering that Indian intelligence agencies had close links with the LTTE in the past, this cannot be completely ruled out," writes Seema Guha in the Daily News & Analyses, drawing attention to instances when the Indian Peace-Keeping Force in Sri Lanka had cornered Prabhakaran but had to let him go because the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India's external intelligence agency, was engaging the LTTE.
"Giving Prabhakaran an escape route will solve many a problem," she argues. "Prabhakaran will be out of harm's way and will be effectively reduced to a has-been. And he will be in no position to come and fight another day."
India extending a helping hand to Prabhakaran can be ruled out. Whatever its links with him in the past, the equation has changed completely now. "India would not want to bail out a person tagged with a terrorist label by several countries at a time when it is accusing Pakistan of sponsoring terrorists targeting India," a RAW official told Asia Times Online.
As for Prabhakaran, even if help were offered by India, he would be unlikely to accept it. His suspicion of India's intentions vis-a-vis the Tamil militancy and the LTTE has a long history. He has never trusted India, he is unlikely to leave his fate in India's hands now.
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