By M H Ahssan
By all accounts, Lok Sabha polls 2009 guarantee a totally fractured verdict that would make government-formation a most daunting task. The task will be daunting because the divisive process will then turn into a ruthless, remorseless numbers game.
The 15th Lok Sabha poll will go down in our parliamentary democracy's annals for the churning - that mythological amrit manthan - by the most divided polity since independence. What kind of visha the churning will produce is difficult to say. There is no Lord Shiva to consume it and save the nation. But this poll guarantees a totally fractured verdict that would make government-formation a most daunting task. The task will be daunting because the divisive process will then turn into a ruthless, remorseless numbers game.
What the country is witnessing in the run-up to the poll, which is most likely to continue post-poll, is amoral politics at its best. The Aya Ram Gaya Ram process that made the late 1960s notorious may well seems like juvenile pranks, what with money power now in full play.
Why is one compelled to draw such a gloomy picture? Not because of the emergence of the regional parties. Also, not because of the rise of the Dalits and those who have been denied their share of power. This twin process has to be accepted and respected.
What is difficult to digest is the approach to politics - of just about everyone demanding a pound of flesh of just every other satrap brazenly trying to be the king or the queen or kingmaker or queenmaker. All norms, all rules are being flouted. All values and virtues are being thrown to the winds as the country prepares to go to the polls.
This has fractured the polity. From a group of national parties, we have moved to two alliances led by national parties with regional allies. There is not even pretence of confidence in reaching out to the entire nation for votes. A party or alliance with nationwide reach and leaders with nationwide appeal is simply missing.
From single parties going to the polls, we are having alliances going to the polls. From two alliances we have witnessed a graduation of sorts to three alliances. And none of the three alliances has the nationwide sweep.
A vast country that once looked a single political entity seems like a conglomerate of states and regions with conflicting interests. People are sought to be divided as per their caste, religion and region. And none is sorry about it - not the players at least.
As the poll process began after the Budget Session of Parliament was completed, the first signs came from three states - Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal. In Orissa, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) ditched its senior partner Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), giving a setback not only to the BJP but also to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
In Bihar, two of the staunchest constituents of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Lalu Prasad and Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) of Ram Vilas Paswan, cocked a snook at senior partner Congress. What happened to BJP and NDA in Orissa, happened to the Congress and the UPA in the more populous Bihar.
In West Bengal, the Congress finally decided to confront the Left Front. It struck an alliance with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, giving her double the number of seats and accepting her as the senior partner. The Congress move has two-fold consequence: it has reduced its own prospects of winning more seats in West Bengal and more important, it has made things more difficult for the Left Front. A Congress-Mamata alliance is a formidable one in terms of political support base and could hurt the Left. With only the tiny Tripura as a safe base, the Left cannot hope to repeat its performance of 2004 poll, since it has ruined its own chances in Kerala where in-fighting within the CPM is rampant and suicidal. This reduces chances of a post-poll alliance of the UPA (or whatever that will be left of it) with the Left parties. The Left support to any move to keep the NDA out of power shall remain crucial.
The NDA too loses out on many fronts - the loss of the Orissa bastion, the parting of ways with Mamata Banerjee and with Telugu Desam Party that supported it from outside.
The NDA, reduced from the mighty 24 constituents in 2004 to just ten, can have the consolation prizes like Ajit Singh in Uttar Pradesh and Asom Gana Parishad in Assam. But they could be crucial, provided they win, when each vote will matter after the poll.
As for the Third Front, the ragtag combine midwifed by the Left has been shunned by the likes of Mayawati and Jayalalithaa. For the rest, it remains a loose conglomerate of parties rejected by the electorates in their states and leaders with overarching ambitions.
Whoever said that it is never-saydie in politics must have meant the likes of Om Prakash Chautala and Bhajan Lal and above all, H D Deve Gowda, whose greed for power and love for his sons paved the way for the BJP rule in Karnataka.
The Left is running around like a chicken with its head cut off. It must oppose BJP/NDA ideologically, but must also oppose the Congress/UPA politically. The CPM manifesto promises to undo the defence relations with the US and review the civil nuclear treaty - further reducing its own acceptance at home and in the fast-moving globalised world community. The political travesty, if one may call it, is the statement of CPM leader Prakash Karat that post poll, the Congress can seek support from, or lend support to, the Third Front. This, when even Marxist patriarch Jyoti Basu is not sure of its success.
Only the results will show who the dog is and who will wag its tail. If the CPM has to contend with serious infighting between Kerala Chief Minister Achuthanandan and Peenarayi Vijayan, the BJP had anxious moments when Arun Jaitley, assigned to coordinate the entire campaign, sulked and stayed away from meetings to display his unhappiness at the appointment of Sudhanshu Mittal, essentially a moneybag and a fixer, as coconvener for Northeast states. ThatJaitley had to climb down and Mittal did get the charge of the North-east assigned to him indicates that BJP has to contend with its dirty linen being washed in public.
BJP's woe became acute when Varun Gandhi who it hopes would some day take on cousin Rahul, botched up his electoral chances by making inflammatory speeches. The party had for long contended with the estranged 'bahu' of the Gandhi family, Maneka, but had to distance itself from Varun when the Election Commission took a serious view of his utterances.
Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav also had to contend with a recalcitrant Mohammed Azam Khan. So much so that Yadav had to publicly say that he would go and meet Khan to assuage his hurt feelings.
People switching sides when denied party nomination is the done thing in Indian politics.
Two of the more glaring examples were Nationalist Congress Party's Jaisingrao Gaekwad Patil, who joined Shiv Sena and Congress' Bhavsinh Rathod who joined BJP and got the ticket to contest the Patan seat.
There is a plethora of prime ministerial candidates. Sonia Gandhi has said that Dr Manmohan Singh would be the prime minister after the election. The BJP anointed L K Advani for the post many months ago.
An indication of Lalu Prasad- Paswan alliance was available when Paswan jauntily threw his hat in the prime ministerial ring and Lalu enthusiastically welcomed it. But the Congress, as Paswan later said, never took him seriously. That the two were moving to stall the rise of Mayawati was an open secret. This explains why Mayawati has stuck to her no-pre-poll alliance stand. She rejected overtures from the Third Front leaders like Chandrababu Naidu. This leaves a flicker of hope for Deve Gowda.
Sharad Pawar, the prime ministerial candidate since 1991 (he lost to P V Narasimha Rao) first got his party, NCP, to 'authorise' him to work for the top job. This got support from Shiv Sena that demanded a Maharashtrian prime minister. Both were playing up to their rivals: Pawar to the Congress and Bal Thackeray to the BJP. They succeeded in causing turmoil within both UPA and NDA. It was only after BJP stitched up its alliance with the Sena that Pawar changed the tune to say that he was aware of his 'limitations' and that anyone with a dozen MPs could not just catapult himself/herself to the prime minister's gaddi.
Another person with burning ambitions, but aware of her 'limitations' without admitting so, is Jayalalithaa. She does not have a single member in the 14th Lok Sabha and did not want to queer the pitch with her allies in her do-or-die fight with rival M. Karunanidhi. After the Third Front decided that it would go to the poll without a prime ministerial candidate, apparently a Left stipulation, Jayalalithaa said that she was not in the race "as of now."
The only person who has no qualms about being "in the race" is Mayawati who thinks she can do it single-handedly. A good omen for her was the break-down of the Congress-Samajwadi alliance in Uttar Pradesh. Much would depend on how many seats she gets in UP and how many more in other states where she is putting up a large number of candidates. For the moment, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party seems to be the only 'national' party ready to take on one and all. There is no sign of dissension and money is not a problem. How the one-woman army handles this battle in a vast terrain remains to be seen. The general perception is that, if not the queen herself, she may end up being the king/queen maker. Even that would give her a position of pre eminence.
No comments:
Post a Comment