Winds of change swirl in Pakistan

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

Pakistan's deteriorating political situation has activated the previously very low profile Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani. He met President Asif Ali Zardari for the first time this week - actually twice - after returning from Washington, where he had met with senior officials.

As a result, a planned crackdown against opposition parties has been shelved. The Punjab Assembly, which was closed down this month after the High Court disqualified the chief minister of the state, Shahbaz Sharif, was reopened. It had been placed under governor's rule, that is, by the central government in Islamabad.

Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani has also asserted his strength and advised the president, through parliament, to rescind an ordinance on mobile law courts. Zardari had issued a decree to establish mobile courts that would have the power to adjudicate on minor offences on the spot. Opposition parties claimed the courts would be used to target their activists, who plan a number of street protests in the coming weeks.

Among these are lawyers who plan a "long march" from March 12 to March 16 in their campaign for the restoration of the chief justice who was sacked by former military ruler president General Pervez Musharraf in November 2007.

Kiani's trip to Washington appears to have acted as a catalyst for change. Since taking over the military from Musharraf on November 28, 2007, Kiani, a former director of the Inter-Services Intelligence and director general of Military Operations, had kept his head down.

The ongoing strife in the country, with militants and al-Qaeda steadily gaining ground in the tribal areas, and the government busy settling scores with opposition parties and civil society, has compelled Washington and its prime contractor in the region, the Pakistan military, to rewrite the political scenario.

On Thursday, Kiani discussed the situation at a meeting with the corps commanders - the heads of the regional army groups - and shared Washington's concerns about governance in Pakistan.

One of these concerns relates to Zardari. He assumed the presidency last September as an "iron man", but in recent weeks he as been more subdued.

One reason could be a proclamation of the recently formed United Front of Mujahideen in Pakistan in the tribal areas which announced that Zardari was on its hit list - the only politician to be included.

However, he suffered a political defeat - directly as a result of the military's persuasion - when this week he lifted the ban on the Punjab Assembly and allowed it to meet. The majority of its members belong to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, arch foes of Zardari.

More humiliating though was the issue of the mobile courts. Premier Gillani advised the president that since parliament was in session, he had to withdraw the ordinance. In this instance, the prime minister's advice was binding, so the ordinance was canceled.

Zardari has also been upset because Gillani fired his national security adviser, Mahmood Ali Durrani, in January for acknowledging that the sole surviving gunman captured by India during November's terrorist attack on Mumbai was Pakistani. Durrani is close to Zardari.

This military intervention - and Gillani getting closer to the army - coincides with a drop in Zardari's popularity within his own Pakistan People's Party, the lead party in the ruling coalition. Zardari has been particularly outspoken - if not rude - towards some of parliament's members, including in his own cabinet. He is even in danger of losing control of the party as he is accused of surrounding himself with friends and associates, many unelected, to act as advisors in key areas.

The situation in Pakistan is fast becoming untenable. Although Kiani has become more active, neither the Americans nor the Pakistan army actually wants to change horses in mid-stream. Yet the country is becoming less and less governable under the present arrangement, and quick action is required.

This does not necessarily mean getting rid of Zardari, but he could well be forced to make further concessions to his political rival, former premier and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, by giving him a share of power. If Zardari does not do this, the military's hand could be forced.