Satraps may prove matchwinners

By M H Ahssan

The dates are out. With hardly any compelling national issue, the three contenders — UPA, NDA and ‘Third Force’ — will go all out to cement alliances that may tip scales

Polls five years ago clearly showed that in the era of coalitions alliances win matches. That’s why political matchmaking will gather feverish intensity now that poll dates have been announced and there’s little time to lose.

Alliances are crucial for victory. More so in an election seemingly bereft of any compelling national issue around which any of the three contenders — UPA, NDA and the Left/Third Front — can build a campaign. UPA, which survived a crisis when Left pulled out over the nuclear deal, has congratulated itself for lasting its five-year term. But its strategists recognise they don’t really have a record that gives them a decisive edge over the opposition.

However, this should not offer much comfort to NDA, or the Left. For, on paper, UPA appears better placed because a web of partners it has spun out. A ‘string-of-pearls’’ strategy helped it tip scales in Sonia Gandhi’s favour while NDA fell for its favourite rating and did away with allies. Alliances will help Congress in states like UP, where prospects of a tie-up with SP have perked up, and West Bengal as well as Bihar that account for close to 200 seats. In comparison NDA is friendless in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal — accounting for over 120 seats.

Sobered by the lesson of 2004, BJP is shopping for allies and has even netted some. Om Prakash Chautala is back in Haryana. Singed by its effort to play solo in Assam, BJP has teamed up with AGP. In UP, it has Ajit Singh. Shiv Sena, expected to stay with BJP despite current flirtations with Sharad Pawar, along with Akali Dal in Punjab, JD(U) in Bihar and BJD in Orissa pack a punch for Team Advani.

In Jharkhand, where NDA can hope to do reasonably well, efforts to rope in Babulal Marandi are yet to bear fruit, although it’s still not a hopeless case.

BJP strategists are laying store by deals they hope to strike post-poll with regional players with flexible loyalties — from Jayalalitha to sundry ones from Northeast — but a lack of allies remains a handicap nonetheless. Performance of state governments will be critical too — especially in light of new state satraps. The 2004 polls were seen as an aggregate of mini-verdicts, with local factors prevailing over BJP’s efforts to craft a central ‘India Shining’ narrative. With CMs turning powerful subedars in the absence of an overarching poll theme or leaders with pan-Indian charisma, the local dimension looms large.

Pundits feel Verdict 2009 will be shaped by state battles. For instance, how NDA fares will be influenced less by L K Advani and more by performance of NDA CMs. CMs belonging to the opposition combine — Nitish Kumar, Navin Patnaik, Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh; to a lesser degree even Prakash Singh Badal — are quite a force. Likewise, the degree to which Congress minimises expected losses in Andhra Pradesh will also have a crucial bearing on its chances. Likewise, Prakash Karat’s ambition to be kingmaker hinges on how well Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and S Achuthanandan do. But all these calculations can go haywire if Mayawati sweeps the 80-strong UP. The fusion of micro and macro is being helped by the absence of powerful ideas. UPA has tomtommed its flagship schemes, but these may not be a surefire winner. The continuing dip in inflation has blunted BJP’s campaign weapon, while its attack on terrorism, as the Delhi polls showed, resonated only within converts.

Mayawati’s ambition is sure to galvanise fellow Dalits, particularly Jatavs, whetting their appetite for empowerment, but that her freshly minted ‘sarvajan’ pitch may not appeal outside UP. BJP’s awkwardness over Rahul Gandhi being projected as PM-in-waiting suggests youthfulness has acquired traction with a young electorate. But with Congress coy about its known succession plan, the premise may not be tested yet. Then again, youth is not an undifferentiated category. Campaigns throw up unexpected twists — like the sari stampede in Vajpayee’s Lucknow constituency — UPA will keep fingers crossed that fear of joblessness does not turn resentment against the regime.