Post-poll, the prodigals could return home

By Siddharth Bhatia

The United Progressive Alliance is dead. True, there are some partners still holding together and the Congress is still making a brave face of it, but the UPA formation, as it was for five years, is no more. This was an arrangement that came into being after the BJP-led NDA lost the 2004 elections and lasted, with a few hiccups along the way, till now. But just before the elections, that coalition has collapsed.

Though the sudden exit of two key partners, Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan precipitated the demise of the UPA, the signs were there much earlier. The Congress got into a fight with many of its partners. Sharad Pawar's naked ambition and his maneuverings to get more seats in Maharashtra provided a clue.Now the PMK in Tamil Nadu has defected to the AIADMK, considerably weakening the coalition. Other, smaller groupings are chafing too. What is left behind cannot be really called the UPA.

A similar problem, on a smaller scale, is being seen with the National Democratic Alliance. Naveen Patnaik craftily parted ways with his decade-old partners the BJP. If the BJP persists with defending Varun Gandhi, they could find Nitish Kumar too decamping. Nitish suddenly sees himself as a prospective Prime Minister-he is not going to risk that chance because of some political upstart who couldn't control his tongue. The BJP's bigger worry is internal warfare which could exacerbate after the polls, especially if the party does poorly in the elections.

Thus, both formations built around national parties are in trouble and the regional parties, big and small are emerging as key players. Some have got together to form a loose confederation, which is in search of a name. Excited political pundits, ever on the lookout for that elusive beast, the non-Congress, non-BJP coalition, have already anointed it as the next government. This has happened before, they tell us - in 1989 and again in 1996 - and could definitely happen again. Is this so? Let us examine the evidence as it stands today.

It is a given that to form any future government, the "Third Front" will have to cobble together 272 seats, which implies that the two big parties between them should get less than that number. But is it as simple as that? Assume that the Congress and the BJP combined do not get more than 250 seats. The rest should theoretically not have a problem forming the majority. But the "rest" includes parties that will not, under any circumstances, come together. Yes, we know that politics makes strange bedfellows, but it is highly improbable that Lalu will sit with Nitish, AIADMK with DMK or Mulayamwith Mayawati. That would leave out between 70-90 members out, whichever way one counts it. The Front would collapse before it is built.

Which leaves open two other possibilities-a Front supported by the BJP or the Congress, from the outside. That too has many precedents, the last one being the Congress supported governments of H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral. The Congress would be happy to keep the BJP out and the BJP would return the compliment. Such a formation will be a fragile one and may not last for more than two years, if past experience is anything to go by. This is what many, including the stock markets are factoring into their calculations and getting jittery about.

But in all these calculations, the probability - however remote - that the Congress or the BJP would do better than most people give them credit for is rarely considered. The collapse of the two national parties is seen as a foregone conclusion; anti-incumbency, weak organization, lack of any wave in favour of either, public anger all are cited as reasons for their imminent poor performance.

The Congress is dismissed for having not performed during it'sr five years in power and the "India Shining" story, which numbed the NDA into believing that it would win once more, is held out as an example of foolhardy thinking. Indeed, the very fact that the Congress's allies are deserting it is seen as a vindication that the party will perform poorly. The same is the story with the NDA.

But we must consider yet another possibility-that of an entirely new alliance forming after the elections. It may not be the UPA or even the NDA, as we know them, but could have a big, national party at its centre and a different name. All the smaller parties, which have opted out to fight the polls on their own could happily come back if they see their future lies with a big party-led coalition rather than with other smaller parties each of which would be tugging in a different direction. New permutations and combinations could be formed-a PMK-AIADMK formation could easily be incorporated into a new "UPA" as much as the BJD walking back into a new "NDA."

Thus, the pre-poll scenario of every one fighting on their own should not concern us as much as what the post-poll arrangements will be. In politics, tomorrow is always another day.