INDIA POLL ALLIANCES ARE IN DOLDRUMS

By M H Ahssan

While the partners privately admit that the support they enjoy is not very deep at this point, in public, they throw arguments about being able to convince the electorate about their capacity to form the government

With the Lok Sabha elections expected to go down the wire, every party or combination thinks power is within grasp. Efforts are, therefore, on now to ensure power shift in their respective favour. While the main combines privately admit that the support they enjoy is not very deep at this point, in public, they throw emphatic arguments about being able to convince the electorate about their capacity to form the government.

Congress is pinning its hopes on its now-familiar “secular” logic to get an extended lease on Raisina Hill. The implosion in the UPA is being cited by BJP to claim that the game is slipping out of the UPA’s hands and in favour of the NDA. Third front advocates are confident that the national parties will not be able to recapture their vitality and see the political assertion of the regional parties working in favour of an alternative government. All three may have worked in the past, but in a badly fractured polity, there are clear signs of parties making cold calculations that will tear through the ideological smokescreen and synthetic political positions.

PMK that altered the odds on Thursday by switching camps is candid in admitting the real game will begin after the elections. Its leader S Ramadoss, who ruled out joining hands with the third front at this juncture, on Friday said it’s a decision that his party will be required to make after the verdict is out. He did not attempt to give any ideological gloss to his logic. It was a simple and plain message that PMK will remain a political freelancer—a fact that many parties are loathe to admit.

PMK, it may be recalled, is not known to burning bridges with national players. Even when it set in motion the process of a minor political destablisation at the Centre on the eve of the 2004 polls by quitting the NDA, the Vanniyar-dominated outfit had not described it as a negative vote for the then ruling alliance. “We formed the NDA with the highest commitment to the cause of the people of India. And PMK is still committed to the philosophy.

But the circumstances in Tamil Nadu have made us part company with the NDA. However, we will always cherish the friendship forged with the prime minister for all the years to come. We will always support your government at the time of political crisis, even if we sit in the Opposition,” Mr Ramadoss had said in a letter to the then
prime minister, Mr AB Vajpayee.

PMK did a repeat performance in Friday when Ramadoss reiterated that he has no quarrel with Congress. “We have not yet decided on whether to join third front or not, as the question arises only after election results are declared. As of now, our only decision regarding post-poll alliances is that we will take a step jointly with our alliance leader AIADMK and will support her decisions,” Mr Ramadoss said.

SP, RJD and LJP that formed a “front within the front” on Thursday, too, have been sending out clear hints that Congress cannot take their support for granted after the elections. Although they do not have the elbowroom to display a PMK-type flexibility, the three cow belt parties’ equations with Congress will certainly depend on the latter’s numerical strength in the Lok Sabha.

At the moment, the Congress has a crippling handicap—it is not just ally-less in many important states, even the existing partners are not willing to be the Congress’ supplicants. On its part, the Congress is hoping that Sonia Gandhi’s socialist theology—throwing money at problems—and the fantasy panacea offered by the party’s manifesto will help it overcome the crisis. Manifestos have rarely helped parties win elections.

In a fractured polity, it is the ability to network with friends and even contenders that take a party to the victory post. But Congress managers, mostly failed politicians and Rajya Sabha members, are not willing to accept the changed reality—only a conglomeration of political parties can rule Delhi. But if the current mood in the Congress is anything to go by, Congress leaders are not willing to come down their collective high horses and face the truth.