HNN estimate: UPA ahead, but only just

By M H Ahssan

Trying to predict the outcome of Indian elections has long been recognized as a mug’s game. That has, however, never prevented anybody — and certainly not the media — from playing the game. So here we go, setting the dice rolling.

Rather than hide behind some pollster’s projections (which more often than not have been wrong), we decided to stick our neck out. We picked the brains of our bureaus across India as well as the national bureau. We argued and differed on some estimates. Finally, here’s what we came up with. The UPA is likely to win 201 seats, the NDA 195, the Third Front 82 and Others 65.

That means that while Congress and BJP almost exactly repeat their 2004 performance, neither has a clear shot at forming the government —- 272 being the majority mark. Mayawati’s BSP, which in our projection should win about 35 seats, could well end up holding a lot of the aces.

There are, of course, a host of caveats. Some of these apply across the board, some specific to states. The most obvious is that a week is a long time in politics and we are presenting our guesstimate a good six weeks before the first of the states votes. Any dramatic event between now and the polls could radically alter the situation.

That is not all. Not all alliances are yet in place and how they shape up could hold the key to the outcome. The dilimitation exercise, which has changed many constituencies beyond recognition, could upset old calculations. Finally, the parties are yet to come out with their full candidates lists.

These are, and we repeat, our best estimates based on the experience of our reporters and the ability of their sources to read the tea leaves right. If that was all it took to get the results right, we wouldn’t need the world’s biggest exercise in democracy, would we? We reserve the right to revise our estimates in the weeks ahead.

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Poll prediction: HNN takes stock
Predicting Indian elections is a tough ask. While TOI analysis gives the UPA 201 seats, the NDA 195, the Third Front 82 and Others 65, here are some of the more significant state-specific caveats and observations:

Bihar: The projections are based on the assumption that Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP will ultimately ally with the Congress and RJD. While the overall good performance of the Nitish Kumar government should help the NDA this time, the fallout of the Kosi flood as well as Lalu Prasad’s effective use of his ministry to get some high-profile projects to Bihar could work, along with the alliance arithmetic, to reduce the damage to the UPA.

J&K: The Congress-NC (of the Abdullahs) alliance should be a potent force in almost the entire state with the BJP likely to be restricted to Jammu.

Karnataka: We have assumed that Congress and Deve Gowda’s JD(S) will not tie up. If Deve Gowda changes tack and goes with the Congress, the situation could be totally different and the BJP’s tally could go down to about 12 seats. (Also See: Another exclusive story - BJP adopts 2-point electoral Strategy in Karnataka)


Maharashtra: The assumption is that ultimately NCP-Congress will remain allies as will Shiv Sena and BJP. Our assessment is that the saffron alliance has suffered greater damage from the speculation about a possible NCPSena tie-up than the UPA has.

Orissa: Again, we are assuming that the alliance between Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and BJP will continue despite some friction in the seat-sharing talks. Unlike some states, however, here the BJD may not suffer major damage even if the alliance does not hold.

Tamil Nadu: The projected scenario assumes that Ramadoss’ PMK will switch sides and join the AIADMK-led alliance which includes the Left and Vaiko’s MDMK. If that doesn’t happen and the PMK sticks to the UPA, we could see more or less the mirror image of our projection with the UPA picking up about 20-25 seats and the Third Front getting the rest.

Uttar Pradesh: We are assuming that the Congress-SP alliance will not materialise. Thus, the fight in the state would be effectively between the BSP, SP with tacit support from Kalyan Singh, the BJPAjit Singh (RLD) combine and the Congress. If instead, the SP-Congress alliance comes through, both BSP and BJP would stand to lose. In the current projection, the 59 “others” in UP include 34 for BSP, 23 for SP and two for smaller parties and independents.

The situation certainly remains fluid. We will take stock again. Watch this space.