AT THE GREAT INDIAN CARNIVAL, EVERY VOTE COUNTS

By M H Ahssan

As 710 million voters are wooed across 3.28 million sq km of diverse terrain by seven national parties, hundreds of regional parties and thousands of leaders, who speak in various languages and with or without forked tongues, to elect 543 people who will decide what sort of government will steer India’s troubled economy and polity, the process can get a little complicated. The HNN has always sought to distil clarity out of this complexity and bring you, dear reader, not only the verve and vigour of the full-blooded performance on India’s political stage but also the finer nuances of the manoeuvres off-stage. In this vein, for India’s 15th general elections, HNN brings you special coverage, starting today, that will tell you all that you wanted to know about polls, politicians, their words, their deeds and what these mean for India’s economy.

It will be more than a month before the first vote is cast in the 15th general elections, but the starting gun was fired months ago. And while elections in India have always been exciting affairs, they have become even more so ever since the dominance of a single party in the country’s polity ended exactly two decades ago. With the two national parties not having the wherewithal to claim a tectonic power shift in their favour, the impending elections too, it’s certain, will be a bookie’s delight.

There are too many last-minute developments that promise to make these elections even more exciting. The BJP’s campaign has suddenly turned anaemic with coalition troubles, as the race enters the last lap. The BJD, a close BJP ally and an NDA partner for the past 11 years, on Saturday night announced a unilateral pullout.
The Shiv Sena, an even older ally, periodically threatens to set the cat among NDA pigeons by breaking bread with the Opposition, which in this case is the ruling UPA’s coalition partners, particularly, Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The Sena is reluctant to endorse Advani’s bid for prime ministership and also wants changes in the seat-sharing agreement.

That the waning clout of BJP will prompt other allies to seek take-more-than-give demands was evident when Nitish Kumar staked claim to two more seats in Bihar. All these puncture BJP’s claim that its troops are in position and that the organisation is in a state of high alert.

The Congress may be claiming that it has a vastly superior organisation and a foolproof strategy. But it has to reckon with a Sharad Pawar, who has been bargaining with each and every important player in and outside the alliance and yet is considered a serious partner who can be trusted. The SP struck at the Congress’ pan-Indian vanity by leaving just six of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. The SP has been rubbing in the point that the Congress is a marginal entity in the state.

In neighbouring Bihar, the UPA just does not have the political depth to challenge Nitish Kumar. An unusually subdued Lalu Prasad Yadav is struggling to work out a compromise with Ram Vilas Paswan.

Besides, the Congressrun state governments, unlike the BJP-controlled ones, are not exactly popular with their electorate. Given this backdrop, it’s too early to suggest that political logic favours the Grand Old Party.

All this should cockle the hearts of admirers of dictators like Fidel Castro and despots like Hugo Chavez. Prakash Karat has reasons to feel satisfied. The implosions in the rival camps are certain to prompt the political fair-weather players to revive the old idea whose time comes and goes every now and then without anyone realising it — the Third Front.

Regional parties may call the shots
The latest to throw some light into the long dark Third Front tunnel is Naveen Patnaik, who is as familiar with Left ideology as a priest is with, say, aphrodisiacs. There is bound to be churning in the states where regional parties call the shots. Chandrababu, Jayalalithaa and Ramadoss can be expected to get together to challenge the national parties’ bid for power. And there could be parties who would be willing to withdraw their opportunistic closeness to the two national parties once the results are out.

The big Indian carnival has only just begun. So, come April-May, don’t stay at home. As the Election Commission advertisements say, ‘Every Vote Counts’.