AMID FAILING STATES

By M H Ahssan

Armed men — allergic to democracy — have created a ring of failing states around India. Should we be alarmed about our restless neighbours?

Hope turns into despair with alarming speed in our part of the world. Last year, it seemed the region was on its way to making peace with itself— the Pakistani army was back in the barracks in Islamabad; the Nepali army had signed a pact with Maoist rebels, in Sri Lanka, a ceasefire was holding between the army and Tiger rebels; in Bangladesh, a popular government was back in power; Bhutan was on the path to a peaceful transition to democracy; and in the Maldives, a dissident rose to power after free elections.

But, things can change in a jiffy in South Asia and we are back to the familiar script. Armed men in uniform — part of government armies and fundamentalist forces — are calling the shots. As our neighbourhood smoulders and burns and democratic institutions flounder, India watches cautiously —careful not to fuel the fires and apprehensive about conflicts spilling over porous borders.

Pakistan: Allah, Army & America
Pakistan just can’t escape the three As. In 2000, US secretary of State Colin Powell declared that Washington and Islamabad stood “at the beginning of a strengthened relationship”, obviously aimed at the Taliban-Al Qaida nexus in Afghanistan. But, despite billions of dollars in aid and military hardware from the US, the Pakistani army is playing its own games, some of them directed at India. With Kabul facing the threat of falling into Taliban-Al Qaida hands and the NWFP government signing a deal with extremists in the Swat region, it’s clear that the ‘war on terror’ is all but lost.

With a political novice in charge of the country in such difficult times, Pakistan’s very survival is being questioned. Some Pakistan-watchers argue that the nuclear-armed country could easily collapse into internal anarchy or fall to an Islamist revolution virtually overnight. But, not everyone is so dismal. “Pakistan can be described as a troubled state but not as a failed state,” says Hasan Askari Rizvi an analyst from University of Pennsylvania.

Bangladesh: Bloodbath again
For those who believed the pangs of Bangladesh’s bloody birth were over, last week was a shock as paramilitaries belonging to the Bangladesh Rifles turned their guns on senior officers and the army. With army tanks rolling into Dhaka and the mutiny spreading to smaller towns, the country appeared to be just a few shots away from another internal war. In his maiden tour of South Asia in 2000, US President Bill Clinton made it a point to visit Dhaka for a day. It was a point well made. It was the time Bangladesh was being praised by the world as a Muslim-majority country with a flourishing Western-style democracy. It was receiving plaudits for other attributes as well: a vibrant civil society, NGO success stories, the micro-credit revolution. And it was in focus for the untapped reserves of gas under its impoverished land. The gas represented the future and wealth that could have changed the face of the nation. But the ‘mutiny’ appears to have taken Bangladesh back in time, to an earlier century. Almost every other indicator coming out of the country is bleak: rising poverty, growing religious fundamentalism, faltering institutions and a restless army. To many, Bangladesh is the perfect example of a state on the verge of collapse, if not failed already.

Nepal: Constitutional crisis
When the Maoists abandoned the broad swathes of the country they controlled during the civil war and arrived in Kathmandu, Nepal seemed to have conquered its troubles. Not at all. Now the Maoists, in government for the first time, are locked in a different battle - with the national army. They want their armed cadres to be inducted into the military. But the army chief is blocking the move as he is wary of the armed Maoist cadres’ political ideology. The friction is ominous as restless Maoist cadres talk of another revolution and the government fails to deliver on the promises it made during the civil war. Meanwhile, the government plans a long-term friendship treaty with China as a bailout insurance plan, ahead of prime minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal’s visit to Beijing. Not a good sign for India.

Big Brother is just watching
Whether we like it or not, South Asia suffers from the Big Brother syndrome. Now, with India encircled by a ring of fire, the question is what is to be done? Experts say India should tread cautiously as far as Pakistan is concerned, trying hard to improve relations and facilitate the flowering of real democracy there. This, they say, could be the best way to fight terrorism. But, with Pakistan giving in to the Taliban, New Delhi may have any option but to wait and watch. Actually, that’s what the Indian government has been doing, apart from making some gaffes at its own expense. With the season of elections upon us, India has to be careful about what it says or does about Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as this could have immediate political implications. So what’s the way out? “Most neighbors have varying degrees of complaints about India's behaviour. If India wants to be a global player, it needs to improve its interaction with bordering states, especially Pakistan,” says analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi. A lesson on neighbourhood geometry, arithmetic and algebra for Indian mandarins?

Sri Lanka: Deadly games
The Tigers and the army have promised death to each other. And they will not let anything – attempts at truce, civilian deaths, human rights and national unity – come in the way when it comes to playing deadly games. On the surface, things may look perfect in Colombo as cricket and late night parties continue. But then, a couple of suicide bombers strike from the air and the illusion of peace is shattered. The truth is that Sri Lanka is almost a military state trying for a military solution to a political problem, even though the strategy has failed in the past. But this time the army tactics are deadlier and the Tigers seem to be on the run. Yet, they may be down but not completely out. Sri Lanka’s troubles have immense implications for India with our Tamil population feeling the pain of Sri Lanka’s Tamils.