Will it be a boring, lacklustre Election 2009?

By M H Ahssan

The most intriguing feature of the forthcoming general election, due barely 100 days from now, is the apparent absence of headiness. Yes, there is lobbying for tickets and countless strategy sessions in Lutyens’ Delhi, the predictable sparring between party spokespersons, the endless alignments and re-alignments, and even the odd padyatras and public meetings. However, the contrived ‘mass movements’ and emotional pumping that preceded some recent elections are absent. This passivity doesn’t stem from the lack of issues which excite voters but despite an overload of concerns. For now, the political class is conveying the impression that a general election is something that India has learnt to take in its stride, without getting too hyper about it.

Whether this appearance of a phoney war signals the healthy evolution of democratic culture or is an indication of the growing disenchantment with politics and politicians, is best left to scholars to assess. What seems clear though is that future historians may not view the coming festival of democracy as a defining landmark — a time when Indians break the existing mould of political alignments. Regardless of the verdict or even the lack of one, the campaign seems set to be lacklustre, even a bit of a bore.

Maybe, a Narendra Modi or a Chiranjeevi could help lift the levels of popular involvement by injecting passion into the proceedings. But inspired interventions are likely to be patchy. The mood in India is not happily or angrily exuberant; it is marked by sober reflection. As such, the dominant campaign rhetoric of both the Congress and the NDA may well be stodgy, not inspirational. The contests may well involve marketing modest promises rather than conjuring lofty dreams.

The reason has very little to do with the personalities and temperament of the main players. A dream such as Indira Gandhi’s Garibi Hatao in 1971, Rajiv Gandhi’s ‘brave new world’ in 1984 and L K Advani’s invocation of Hindutva in 1991 could break new electoral ground because their appeal was pan-Indian and novel. There are two themes in this election that resonate across much of India: the war on terror and economic insecurity. Unfortunately for both the government and the principal opposition, their potential for partisan exploitation is marred by voter cynicism. To put it bluntly, there is insufficient faith in the ability of either the UPA or the NDA to make a profound difference. Dissatisfaction with the existing state of counter-terrorism and the fear of job losses may help tilt the balance of incumbency slightly against the government. But that will also depend on whether voters believe the alternative is an improvement over the government’s complacency.

Past experience suggests that a single political theme can dominate an election if audacity can successfully blend with novelty. There was a freshness — even innocence — in the Indira of 1971, the Rajiv of 1984 and the BJP until 1998. The political formations of today are more cautious and somewhat jaded. This does not condemn them automatically but it does limit their ability to go beyond the mundane. It will take every bit of ingenuity on the part of candidates to ensure that voter turnout is high.

A corollary of the invisible common theme is the likelihood that Election 2009 will not be presidential in character. It is a measure of responsible politics that the NDA has chosen its leader and this may yet force the UPA to name its prime ministerial candidate. But the role of the leaders will remain purely symbolic as long as there is no overriding theme. Their photos will grace the posters and the media will follow them throughout the land but voters will not perceive them as candidates for all the 542 constituencies. The election could resemble a chess game, not a 100 metre dash.

Election 2009 may also be the strategists’ nightmare on account of its fragmentation. An election that becomes a cacophony of divergence may well end up generating a default polarisation — along local caste and, occasionally, religious lines. But this is by no means inevitable. Lok Sabha constituencies tend to be too large and amorphous to make purely local alignments viable. Voters, too, react differently in national and local elections. This time, a successful election strategy could centre on a party’s ability to connect people’s personal experiences with their sense of well being and their aspirations. It implies that the local considerations could take precedence over national grandstanding.

If the quality and credibility of local candidates shape the election, the outcome could be infuriatingly complex, even unanticipated. This may not be good for stability but voters opt for reassurance only after experiencing real turbulence.