The UPA Government’s Vote on Account on Monday played safe and didn’t announce any major plan for the economy. That may hurt: a nationwide HNN survey suggests that the economy is the dominant issue for voters before General Elections.
As many as 32 per cent people told the survey its the state of the economy that is the main issue this time. A smaller 21 per cent people said that national security and terrorism would be a crucial factor.
The survey was conducted by HNN in association with the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and reveals the findings from over 20,000 samples from 28 states spanning over 1,280 locations.
As many as 18 per cent people felt that rising unemployment would be high on their minds while casting their ballot. Only 5 per cent people said that reservations would be the most important issue in the coming elections.
Just two per cent people would cast their vote on the basis of the Indo-US Nuke deal, the controversial agreement which lead to the Left Front leaving the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government and forcing it take a floor test in Parliament.
Just 1 per cent people said that Hindutva is an important issue in the elections—a finding that may interest the Bharatiya Janata Party, which recently announced that it is committed to building the Ram Temple in Ayodyha.
This election will also see political parties battling it out to win the youth vote. Here too, the poll found that the level of concern over the economy was very high among those under 35, with job fears being heightened.
As many as 32 per cent young urban graduates and 25 per cent young rural graduates said that unemployment was the most important issue to them.
Ironically, despite the faltering economy hurting the UPA Government, the level of satisfaction with the present government remains on the higher side.
The HNN-CSDS survey suggests that around 66 per cent people are satisfied with the UPA, 21 per cent are dissatisfied and the rest have no opinion.
The UPA can’t afford to be smug though. In 2004, the scales were tilted in a similar fashion towards the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Government. As many as 7 per cent were satisfied with the NDA 's performance and 28 per cent were dissatisfied. But the NDA lost the battle.
The survey also found that while 45 per cent people were in favour of giving the UPA Government another chance and 30 per cent are against it.
In 2004, 48 per cent people were in favour of giving the NDA another chance and 30 per cent were against it. For both the UPA and the NDA then, the poll offers a glimpse into the future.
Raising the pitch through emotional issues might make for an exciting election campaign, but its offering solutions to the economic slowdown that could be critical in influencing voter preferences.
Survey methodology
The survey used the most scientific and representative method of sampling, the three stage random sampling technique to select the respondents for this purpose. In a face-to-face situation over 16,000 respondents in 23 states were interviewed at their place of residence.
As many as 332 assembly constituencies and 996 polling stations were surveyed to understand the mood of the nation.
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