Sunday, February 15, 2009

India Elections 2009: Soon, a move away from coalitions

By M H Ahssan

Coalition governance is a complicated affair. If constitutional safeguards are breached for political and personal ends, matters are likely to deteriorate sharply for the ruling party, the Opposition and the voting public.

At present, we have a raging controversy about Election Commission members and their political connections. We are also witnessing a debate on the accountability of judges and whether we should have a judicial system which is beyond public scrutiny. For instance, there is the question as to why the assets of judges and their family members should not be made public.

We see the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) playing a game of musical chairs with the Bahujan Samaj Party’s Ms Mayawati and Samajwadi Party’s Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh. The guilt or innocence of persons is nowadays determined by their political connections at the Centre.

The Supreme Court’s observations on the CBI need little elaboration. We hear sermons on the independence of the CBI but often the agency is little more than the arm of the government of the day and its political agenda. And what makes things difficult is the fact that in coalition governance the agenda is flexible and subject to constant changes, as has happened in the case of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family members. In fact, neither Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav nor Ms Mayawati has done anything which other politicians have not done.

As I have said earlier, ideally, political battles must be fought and won in the political arena and not by using government agencies. What we now see is political parties forsaking their ideology in the pursuit of financial benefits. Family members of political leaders are becoming business and media tycoons to ensure political longevity to protect their “assets” and this will only result in political anarchy, criminality and violence.

Coalition interests make a mockery of firm governance and a small number of individuals can hold the system to ransom. We can see this at the Centre and whilst there are exceptions to the rule, nobody is able to break the vested interests.

Dynastic and family control exists in almost all political parties and political associates take a back seat as family members, lawyers, chartered accountants and business tycoons take charge of the political agenda.

Meanwhile, the Congress and the BJP have made their leaders known to the public before polls, without making an official declaration. This is good for the party cadre. The Congress has confirmed that their Prime Ministerial candidate would be Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and that the AICC general secretary, Mr Rahul Gandhi, would be leading the campaign.

Mr L.K. Advani is the PM-in-waiting for the BJP but the future will also be determined by the second-rung of leaders, including Mr Narendra Modi, Arun Jaitley and Ms Sushma Swaraj. There is little doubt that Mr Modi will be the star campaigner for the BJP and there is no one better that Mr Jaitley to manage the election.

Elections are never easy and every leader is fully tested in the public arena. We are in the age of 24x7 media attention and very little will escape public scrutiny as all parties campaign for political success.

We have seen two decades of coalition governance and sometime in the immediate future there will again be a move towards majority rule and this will be a window of opportunity for all those who aspire for the top job.

The election charts show marginal changes. The Congress continues to gain from the CPI(M) in Kerala but a change in alliance structure in Maharashtra can have very dramatic changes if the NCP adopts a flexible stand. Tamil Nadu remains a swing state. Indications are that the AIADMK will make gains in south and north Tamil Nadu and this will make the situation difficult for the DMK alliance. In Andhra Pradesh too, the situation is fluid whilst the political battle in Uttar Pradesh shows the BSP and SP firmly in control.The BSP may gain if the SP continues with their infighting on the Kalyan Singh issue. Anti-incumbency trends will be there but as we have seen in the last six Assembly elections, good performance by local leaders is rewarded by the voting public and this trend will continue.

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