By Najeeb Khan
General elections are scheduled in April-May 2009 and these elections will decide the fate of political leaders, parties, government and the country. Results of assembly elections held recently have created the confusion instead of showing clear indications that who will be at the helm of affairs. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are two large states and results have demonstrated a fragmented verdict. Madhya Pradesh re-elected the ruling BJP Government whereas Rajasthan people voted for Congress (incumancy factor).
Although Congress succeded in forming government in Rajasthan but this party failed to clean sweap the state. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP maitained a big margin. Congress recaptured Delhi state ignoring any incumbancy effect. Likewise, BJP got re-elected in Chhattisgarh and congress failed to increase its influence in the state. Congress got majority in Mhizorum and succeeded in spreading its influence in north east.
Its true that issues are different for people in state and central elections but few issues affects both. We'll discuss these issues and their impacts on election prospects of different political parties:
1. Inflation: Price rise affects common men and it has been observed in past elections how the ruling parties lost the elections when they failed to control the escalating prices. Important factor in this regard is the efforts made by the ruling party to control it. State government generally blame price rise for the wrong economic policies of the Central Government. However, they can not escape from their responsibilities. State Govt. can atleast help to lower prices of few commodities by lowering the taxes.UPA government is trying hard to keep inflation under control and has been successful in its efforts by adopting different measures. Luck is also in its favour as the fuel prices in International market has dipped to $35 per barrel from $ 146. Fuel prices have their influence on prices of other commodities as transportation costs also increase with increasing fuel prices.
2. Fuel prices: Govt. has increased prices of petroleum and diesels several times in the past. However, it delays declaration of reduction in fuel prices to give advantage to oil companies of private and public sectors. Prices of crude oil have come down from $145 per barrel to $ 35 per barrel and govt. has once reduced prices of petroleum before declaration of state assembly election by Rs 5 per litre. It is assumed that Govt. is planning to reduce again these prices by Rs 5 on petrol. Rs 2.50 on diesel and Rs 25 on LPG cylinders to make housewives happy. It will be done before the parliament election. This shows that govt. is less concerned with people but more with the vote of the people. During NDA govt. regime, petroleum prices were immediately reduced depending on the prices in the international market. One can understand the difference of attitude between two government.
3. Terrorism: Indian people are bearing the burnt of this menace. Not only terrorism from outside but also from internal activists like naxalites. Neither UPA government nor state government supported by UPA are much concerned with Naxalite problem. They have left people to their own fate. No concrete step has been taken by UPA or its supported governments in the states.
4. Secularism: Most of the political parties that does not believe in good governance, always like to play this truimph card to sue the voters of a particular religion. However, these political parties and government have never made effort to improve the economical condition by making any real efforts to do so. Government has presumed that minorities will vote them if they just criticize the political parties who favors majority population.People are fed up of politicians who only raises issues related to minorities and issues that are not related to their social upliftment but only of minor importance like put a ban on a book that hurts feeling of a section or sending back Taslima Nasreen etc. etc.
5. Service sectors: The only commedable task that is a plus point of ruling party is to make Central Govt. employees happy by improving their service conditions and giving them a good pay hike. However, if one critically examine this aspect, gainers of this pay package are highly placed officials. Otherwise, these hikes just neutralizes the inflation and do nothing more. Teaching community is feeling unhappy as per reports. Government has failed to take any steps for improvement in education at any level.
One step taken by this government to make them happy need mention here and government needs appreciation for it. UPA government has made some reforms in income tax structure and government servants are happy with it.
8. Law and Order front: Performance of present UPA government has been dismal on law and order front. Even people don't feel safe in the capital as incidences of looting, murder, rapes are heard on daily basis.
9. Growth and Government expenditure: Government has been successful in improving growth rate though it will not be justified to give full credit to present government alone. Whatever growth increase is illustrated, this is result of not fully but partially to NDA government whose policy decisions have started paying dividends. Elimination of licences for several services has resulted in fast expansion of telecom services and reduces prices of different gadgets etc. Expension of internet is due to efforts of past government and continuation of the same policies by present government.
Based on the above analysis, it can be concluded that working of the present government has been just at par to past (NDA) government. Though this government committed blunder of withdrawal of tough law measures like POTA just to appease the minorities and that has backfired, this government has done commendable job to take country ahead on economic front. Performance of this government is as good as of the NDA government. Both the government have been on similar track and deserves their share of votes. This will ultimately facilitate way for a government that will need help of small regional parties for formation of next government.
Result: Neither Congress nor BJP would be able to get majority in next elections (May 2009) and chances are more for a hung parliament where politicians of criminal background will help one of the parties in formation of next government and will utilize power to attain their own goals.
However, awareness among people has grown at a very rapid pace and after few elections, opportunists in politics have to reconsider about their fate.
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