A battle before a battle
Peshawar - the High Fort - is the capital of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the administrative center for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. It was one of the main trading centers on the ancient Silk Road and was a major crossroads for various cultures between South and Central Asia and the Middle East.
Located on the edge of the Khyber Pass near the Afghan border, Peshawar, with a population of several million, is the commercial, economic, political and cultural capital of the Pashtuns in Pakistan.
Peshawar and its surrounds are also now the epicenter for the Taliban and other militants in their struggle not only in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also in their bid to establish a base from which to wage an "end-of-time battle" that would stretch all the way to the Arab heartlands of Damascus and Palestine.
In a series of articles exploring the region that will examine the differing natures and strategies of various Taliban groups, HNN's Editor in Chief M H Ahssan begins his journey in Peshawar.
Restive North-West Frontier Province is not the destination of choice these days. Those who travel there go for business or family reasons, and the flight I took from the southern port city of Karachi to Peshawar was half empty; clearly, the region is no longer on the tourist map.
After touring the city for an afternoon and speaking to a variety of people, I was struck by its eerie similarity to Baghdad when I visited that capital soon after the United States-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 - it has the distinct atmosphere of impending chaos.
That evening I chatted with a senior al-Qaeda member who told me that the group considered NWFP and southwestern Balochistan province as already wiped off the map of Pakistani as they were now militant country. Although not entirely accurate, it portends a chilling turn in the "war on terror" in which Washington will be more concerned over the stability and security of Pakistan rather than that of Afghanistan.
The indications are that a major battle will be fought in Pakistan before the annual spring offensive even begins in Afghanistan this year.
Last December, the US Defense Department pushed for Pakistan to be given US$2.64 billion to buy better weapons and to provide more training for its police and Frontier Corps, which are at the vanguard of the battle against militants in the tribal regions.
The new administration of US President Barack Obama has appointed veteran diplomat Richard Holbrooke as a special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, a newly created position, so that he and Hillary Clinton - in her role as secretary of state - can work closely to try to get Kabul and Islamabad to join forces in the fight against the resurgent Taliban and al-Qaeda militant groups, especially those located in Pakistan.
A deceptive calm
On the surface, life appears normal in Peshawar. Shops, public offices, banks and schools are all open, but they disguise disturbing events that are happening with increased regularity.
Heavily armed militants have begun attacking container terminals for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supply trucks on their way to Afghanistan, destroying dozens of them, and there have been a series of high-profile abductions, including those of Afghan and Iranian diplomats.
Pushto stage and drama artist Alamzeb Mujahid was seized from Peshawar's Hayatabad area this month, while the beheaded body of a faith healer was found last week with a warning note attached saying that those involved in the business of faith-healing would meet the same fate.
According to militant sources, five dozen people have been abducted in the past 30 days, including Shi'ites and ex-army men and their relatives. Some were released after a ransom was paid, a few were killed and the remainder are still being held hostage by the militants.
Most of these incidents have involved militants claiming to be Taliban. However, criminal gangs have also jumped onto the bandwagon to abduct traders for ransom. Different traders' organizations have grouped together to display black banners in the city urging the government to stem the abduction of traders.
In the face of this, security arrangements in Peshawar are extraordinarily tight. In the upscale neighborhood of University Road, which houses several international non-government organizations, United Nations offices, residences and the American Club, every nook and cranny is manned by either the police or by intelligence sleuths in civilian dress.
This has created an atmosphere of fear among people, who believe that a major showdown between militants and the security forces is imminent.
The situation was a blessing in disguise for me as I easily found a very comfortable, well-equipped room at a 20-room guest house with high-speed wireless Internet at a much cheaper price than I paid on my previous visit last year. When I checked in, I was the only guest.
Later, I spoke to Mehmood Afridi, the editor and owner of the English daily the Frontier Post. "I chose to set up my office in a bungalow because at least I can watch over the threat compared to any office in a building downtown, but still I have to spend a huge amount on armed guards."
It took almost one-and-a-half years for the US and NATO to realize the real dangers of the lawlessness in Pakistan. In 2007, Western decision-makers watched the instability in Pakistan with a smile.
Militant ideologues based in the tribal areas, such as Tahir Yuldashev, chief of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and Shiekh Essa, were emphasizing their aim to topple the then-government of president General Pervez Musharraf before taking on NATO in Afghanistan.
A tide of insurgency swept from Afghanistan into Pakistan, but Western leaders were not too concerned as they thought this would make it easier for them in Afghanistan and that the militants would be defeated in Pakistan.
This did not prove to be the case in regard to both countries. The insurgency in Afghanistan had its most successful year in 2008, and militants have grown in strength in Pakistan. In February 2008, suicide attacks in Pakistan outnumbered Iraqi suicide attacks and strong enclaves of militants have been established in Pakistan where they never before existed.
For instance, in the strategic Khyber Agency, through which 80% of NATO's supplies pass on the way to landlocked Afghanistan, militants have gained a foothold. In Mohmand and in Bajaur tribal agencies, which cover the whole of a strategic corridor into Afghanistan which goes all the way to the capital Kabul through Kunar, Nooristan and Kapisa provinces, militants have established a presence.
An insurgency in the hitherto peaceful Swat Valley prompted Pakistan to carry out military operations, but this only turned the whole valley into hostile territory for the Pakistan army and a new nursery for the Afghan resistance.
Never before had so many well-trained and battle-hardened militants swarmed from the Swat Valley, Bajaur and Mohmand into Afghanistan, and they are preparing to do so again this year. NATO has had to seek an alternative and much more expensive supply routes through Central Asia.
As a result, the US, where strategic journals and think-thanks had been selling the idea of Pakistan's disintegration up to 2007, and promoted the concept of a united Pashtun land, is now completely geared to take all measures to protect the unity of Pakistan.
It is now believed that if Pakistan goes down, it will take its neighbors with it, with ramifications all the way to Europe and America.
Apart from a few divisive incidents, such as the Pakistan-linked terror attack on Mumbai in India last November, this realization is keeping all players, including Pakistan, the US, Britain and even India at closer levels of coordination. However, this has happened late in the game, perhaps too late.
The rise and rise of militancy
Following the ousting of the Taliban from Afghanistan by US-led forces in late 2001, militancy in the region only began to grow at a phenomenal pace over the past few years.
In 2005, a major regrouping of the Taliban began, leading the next year to meetings in Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area and an agreement to fight against NATO under the command of Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani.
In April 2006, the militants verbally agreed on a ceasefire with Pakistan and then signed a formal document in September the same year. In early 2007, they broke the ceasefire, but at the same time faced a serious leadership crisis.
However, the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) operation in July 2007 in which the radical mosque in Islamabad was stormed by security forces helped the Pakistani Taliban to regroup under the umbrella of the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Taliban. The organization initially went through many difficulties due to differences over leadership, but ultimately they agreed on Baitullah Mehsud as head.
In December 2007, former premier Benazir Bhutto was assassinated by al-Qaeda, and Osama bin Laden installed an amir-e-khuruj (leader for revolt) in Pakistan, and since then the militancy has gone from strength to strength.
Against this backdrop, three significant and interlinked developments occurred:
Pakistan lost a significant amount of territory in NWFP to militants.
Al-Qaeda and Pakistani militants devised a scheme in late 2008 to cut off NATO's supply lines passing through Pakistan. The move has been highly successful.
The Taliban are gaining ground in Afghanistan. According to an influential British think-tank, the Senlis Council - now renamed the International Council on Security and Development - in 2007, 54% of Afghanistan was under the control of the Taliban. In 2008, the same think-tank said that 72% was controlled by the Taliban.
In the past few months, the US has stepped up Predator drone attacks on specific targets inside Pakistan. While these have aided the militant cause in that at times civilians have been killed, several key militant leaders have also died.
A meeting with al-Qaeda
I received a call on my cell phone from a number I did not recognize, but the voice was familiar.
"It is not possible to visit you at your guest house. You have to move away from the area," the man said, and then mentioned a famous landmark in the city where I had met the same person last year. I will call him Mohammad.
I was delayed leaving the guest house and had to walk about 20 minutes to the meeting place. As I approached, Mohammad crossed the road and joined me. I followed him until we reached a waiting motorbike and rider at a crowded bus stop.
Mohammad sat behind the driver and I squeezed on behind him. We must have been a sight. The front two had very long beards and robes, looking like prayer leaders, while I was wearing modern trousers and a coat. We drove for 10 minutes before reaching a big park.
"You almost put us in serious difficulties," Mohammad chided me as soon as we got off the motorbike.
"How?" I asked, surprised.
"There is an extraordinary high alert in and around the University Road area. In the past month, dozens of our fellows have been arrested in the area. Of course, we keep an eye on our targets, which are in abundance in this part of Peshawar, and intelligence and police keep an eye on us. I was waiting for you for about 40 minutes, it is just not advisable for us to stay around for so long," Mohammad explained.
"After losing ground all over, the security forces are preparing for decisive action against us. Everybody is at risk, we, our families ... I change my cell numbers on an almost daily basis, so next time you will not be able to trace me. I have changed my residence twice in the past two months and my residence is not known to anybody. At this moment, the security forces are calling the shots [in the city], but soon we will retaliate."
I questioned Mohammad on a reported split among militants which has caused Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah to remain quiet. Abdul Wali, alias Omar Khalid, Moulvi Faqir and others who were previously with Baitullah, who is ill, have now parted with him. The drone attacks have wiped out sizeable numbers of al-Qaeda members, although the word is the Bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri are alive.
"The news of a split is true, but it will never benefit the government," said Mohammad. "All it has done is weaken Baitullah's command. Believe you me, it will further sharpen the armed opposition against the government. The militant groups will carry out attacks with multiple strategies. Abdul Wali is still fighting against the government." (Abdul Wali had earlier been reported killed in Mohmand Agency in a military strike.)
"Al-Qaeda members have melted into various like-minded groups. Recently, Qari Ziaur Rahman led a group comprising 600, mostly Afghans and al-Qaeda members, to ransack a Pakistani security post in Mohmand Agency," Mohammad said.
"Tomorrow, when you travel to the Swat Valley, you will find that except for a few towns like Mardan, Sawabi and Charsada, all the towns are now under the Taliban. In places like Mengora and Swat, the security forces are not the ones who enforce the curfew, but the Taliban. The Taliban move freely on the streets and the security forces hide inside their sanctuaries," Mohammad said.
The Taliban's and al-Qaeda's influence is indeed multi-faceted, like their groupings. There are places like Swat and the tribal areas where the Taliban's control is a fact of life and they operate in broad daylight. In other places like Peshawar they are present, but this can only be felt, not seen.
Malakand Agency was on my itinerary, and I had been told that here there is not a single Taliban on the ground, but through fear they impose their writ.
NEXT: Faceless rule
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