The vote-on-account is over, the tenure of the 14th Lok Sabha is drawing to a close and the focus now shifts to the General Elections. In about 100 days the country will know who will form the next government.
Over the next six days, HYDTV will bring you the results of the most extensive nationwide poll ahead of the General Elections 2009.
To kick-start the first in a series of debates, HYDTV had a panel comprising Editor-In-Chief of Outlook Vinod Mehta, columnist Swapan Dasgupta, Editorial Advisor to the TOI Group Gautam Adhikari, Editor-In-Chief of The Hindu N Ram, political analyst Yogendra Yadav and HYDTV's National Affairs Editor Kajol Singh. The debate was moderated by Editor-in-Chief of HNN M H Ahssan.
Slowing Economy, the new national issue
Swapan Dasgupta opened the debate by saying, “Economy by far is the most important issue. We are in the midst of a downturn and the Government is still in denial. If this is the mood in February then the gloom would be far more magnified in March, which is the election season.”
Livelihood issues high on voters' agenda
In deciding whom to vote for, the issue that will matter most will be…
Economy and inflation 32
National security and terrorism 21
Unemployment 18
Reservations 5
Indo-US Deal 2
Hindutva 1
Others 3
Can't say 18
Note: All figures in percent.
Most panelists agreed that elections are now moving back to bread and butter issues. Economy and inflation top the chart with 32 per cent people in the survey saying it will be a deciding factor on who they will vote for.
“The poll results have shown the maturity of the Indian voter,” Vinod Mehta said.
“More and more are now realising that the economy is no more about figures and statistics. People are calculating their cost of living and how much they lost from the stock market. Also, one must note that the Congress dream team’s public relations has been miserable. Chidambaram would stand up and say the fundamentals of the Indian economy are strong and all around stock markets would be crashing and people losing their jobs,” Mehta added.
So do the Indian politicians accept that they have to have a sound understanding of the economy if they have to win the voters’ hearts and minds?
Country’s economy and inflation is an issue that cuts across classes
Those to whom economy and inflation will be the most important issue…
All 32
Urban poor 29
Rural poor 31
Rural well to do 37
Urban well to do 33
Note: All figures in percent.
Disagreeing with the flow of the discussion, Gautam Adhikari said, “Economy is a much more complex process. The fundamentals of the Indian economy compared to the rest of the world are in fact not too bad. Behaviour of the stock market does not always reflect the fundamentals of the economy.”
Dasgupta took the issue forward and explained, “Economy has been on top of the minds of the voters since the 80s. The question is does the economy finally matter when people actually vote?”
“It could be,” said Yadav and added, “If price rise happens to be on the menu it will be the top preference for the voters before they vote. What we should be looking at now is a package that can be termed as livelihood. It may not be related to the global meltdown but it plays out in a complex way politically. Price rise can become a poll issue when one can point a finger at a particular government. Here, the question is are we looking at state or Central government? Secondly, one also has to look at the alternative to this Government.”
So does the UPA Government realise the depth of the crisis that it is facing?
“There was a bit of complacency in the way the Government approached the vote-on-account. The figures from the survey actually show a personal rather than a collective experience from the voters,” Kajol Singh said.
Mehta reiterated, “Rather than false reassurances by the UPA in this time of gloom and doom, it would have been better to take the country into confidence and share the real numbers.”
However, Adhikari asked, “But do you expect the Finance Minister to talk down the economy?”
“If there is a significant mismatch between the happy smiling peasants and the bright youngsters in the Bharat Nirman ads then mismatch between that image and people’s personal experience will have a political fallout,” Dasgupta reasoned.
Agreeing, Mehta said, “The Bharat Nirman ads are a disaster given the reality and what is being portrayed.”
N Ram too agreed that this mismatch would end up being the Government’s Achilles Heel. “Yes, it is bad news for the Government and I suppose it was expected. I do agree with Vinod that the much better way would have been to square with the people. The country has been in considerable denial,” he said.
People report an economic down turn in the last six months
Those who say that compared to six months ago, it is now…
Harder to meet household expenses 44
Same as it was six months ago 29
Easier to meet household expenses 16
Can’t say 11
Note: All figures in percent.
However, M H Ahssan interjected by asking the panelists if the people, who are taken into confidence about the harsh reality of the economy, will vote back the Government? “If you say things are bad then it is almost like a mandate against the Government.”
But Ram said it is better being more truthful and realistic rather than be in denial.
“Today, fundamentals are weak and the figures lack credibility. Recessionary tendencies are eating into the economy. Unemployment will also be a huge issue,” he added.
Gauging the mind of the Indian voter
The UPA Government has announced several schemes over the past year or so, and it hopes to gain maximum electoral dividends from those, but how aware are voters about these schemes?
The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme is among the many Congress social schemes that voters are not aware of. Only 48 per cent of rural poor have heard about the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and 11 per cent of them give credit for the scheme to their state governments.
“One of the main problems in Congress is that it doesn’t know how to sell itself. The Congress is hopeless in communicating its ideas to the people. The NREGA is a good idea but it has been implemented badly. The ads for NREGA are worse than Bharat Nirman. If you have a good social welfare scheme then you need to communicate to the people who will avail it and not to a TV audience,” Mehta said.
To which Dasgupta added, “If there is a confusion on who is the author of the scheme then it dilutes it. If there is some inadequate awareness that such a scheme exists then it has been faultily implemented.”
There is a structural problem in Indian elections, according to Adhikari. “There is one General Election but it is also governed by local perceptions. Regional perceptions often trump what the Central government is trying to do. This has been a problem all along but more so since the coalition governments came to power. But I agree with Vinod that the Congress’ communication strategy is pathetic.”
But how is all this translating on the ground?
“No scheme helps you in election unless people identify you as the author and see some difference made to their own lives. What is wrong with the Congress is the absence of a political design that underwrites all these things,” Yadav explained.
The Congress party lacks the organisation to translate good schemes into votes.
“The NREGA is a very good scheme but the Congress seems to have no conviction here, they expanded it across India a far too late. There is lack of political mobilisation. It seems as if they just implemented the scheme for electoral ends,” Ram said.
So is it too little and too late for the Congress to now take it to the people?
“In a sense the Congress has missed a historic opportunity of almost a new political alignment in India. They have spent all the money and received very little political rewards,” Yadav said.
“It is not imperative or guaranteed that populous schemes can fetch electoral returns. The case of Operation Barga in West Bengal gave the CPM enormous dividends,” Dasgupta added.
Mehta then explained how in all the social sector schemes the Cabinet was divided right down the middle. “There were people in the Cabinet who were against these schemes,” he said.
How was the Government handling of the November 26 attacks perceived by the people?
The Mumbai terror attacks changed many things in India, Pakistan and also the stand of the United States of America on the issue of terror in the region. But what does the man in the streets of India think of the way the November 26 attacks in Mumbai last year?
The survey threw up figures depicting a mixed opinion amongst voters.
A mixed opinion on government handling of Mumbai attacks
Those who say that after the Mumbai attacks the central government…
Took the right steps 26
Did not do enough 22
Took unwise steps in haste 4
No opinion 20
Did not hear about Mumbai attacks 28
Note: All figures in percent.
Twenty six per cent people say that the Government took the right steps while 22 per cent say that the Government did not take the right steps.
Four per cent say that the Government took unwise steps in haste and 20 per cent have no opinion on the matter. But surprise, surprise - 28 per cent have just not heard about the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack.
So it was an almost even divide of people perceiving the Government's handling of the terror attacks that shook the subcontinent. Significantly, large parts of rural India seemed to have no idea of at all about the 26/11 terror attacks.
So, is 26/11 really a voting plank or not? Are the opinions on terror issues going to sway the voters in any direction or not?
Will the level of dissatisfaction on the handling of the issue mean any electoral gains for the NDA?
Satisfied with handling, but reserved Forty-seven per cent of those who said the Government took the right steps will vote for the UPA while 28 per cent of those will vote for the NDA.
Dissatisfaction with government action is
not giving enough dividends to NDA
Those who say that after the Mumbai attacks the central government… Will vote for UPA Will vote for NDA
Took the right steps 47 28
Did not do enough 32 37
Took unwise steps in haste 29 42
Note: All figures in percent only for those who heard of Mumbai attacks. Rest ‘no opinion’.
Not happy with terror handling, but not much lost Thirty-two per cent of those who said that the Government didn’t do enough will vote for the UPA, whereas 37 per cent will vote for the NDA.
To err is human, so mood high to forgive UPA's 'unwise' steps Twenty-nine per cent of those who said that the Government took unwise steps in haste will vote for the UPA, while 42 per cent of them will vote for the NDA.
M H Ahssan pointed out that the government seemed to have managed to contain the damage here in a sense. The Government (read the UPA) could have gone horribly wrong though.
"It was a national issue. The entire country was shocked. Many people therefore would reserve their opinion. Even then there was a lot of criticism and it still continues. Now the issue is which government are they angry with? Are they angry with the Central government or are they angry with the state government? I know they belong to the same party," said Gautam Adhikari.
M H Ahssan said that it is a level playing field now. There were blasts in Ahmedabad, in Jaipur and even the NDA had seen terror strikes in its tenure. So it is a national issue and not so much a state-wise issue.
Swapan Dasgupta agreed that it may not be a number one issue on people's minds but it still was a critical one. "It is more an important issue for those who in any case would have voted for the NDA. I think this bolsters their conviction that not enough has been done," said Dasgupta.
"Here, we see that within the country it has split almost even. Within the NDA voters, invoking the question of terrorism matters far more than it does for the UPA voters," pointed out Dasgupta.
The panel agreed that though terror is an important issue, it may not turn into a major one in the elections.
"The Congress started off rather badly and they seem to be doing well in the end. The BJP meanwhile seems to be completely turning itself on this issue and does not know what not to strike though they have the right idea," said Vinod Mehta.
Quoting the law of diminishing returns, Mehta said that the BJP has a problem in detection of what is the right note to strike on the issue," Mehta said. "The Congress seems to have done extremely well and the recent diplomatic victory over Pakistan will bring some reward for the Congress party too," Mehta added.
Adhikari agreed that BJP's harping too much on the terror issues could backfire on the party. Dasgupta was quick to add that this very plank though will be an important issue for the BJP to get its traditional voters to come out and vote.
Considering that 26 per cent people say that the Government took the right steps, Yogendra Yadav felt that it was not a small figure by any chance.
"Interestingly the UPA seems to have handled an issue which is not its own turf, rather well. On the other hand they seem to have handled their own turf issues like economy, garibi, aam admi rather badly," Yadav pointed out an ironic way of politics. Rajdeep Sardesai added to it that some people say that P Chidambaram seems to have done better as Home Minister than as a Finance Minister in at least handling the public image of the portfolio.
Swapan Dasgupta pointed out to a curious reversal of roles where Sonia Gandhi is talking of terrorism and is talking tough on Pakistan while Advani is talking of bread and butter issues in his political campaign speeches.
"In the last elections in 2004 we had this bizarre situation when the NDA did disastrously in the urban areas which were its traditional strongholds and did not do all that badly (apart from the south) in the rural areas," said Dasgupta.
Vinod Mehta said that while in BJP's tenure a nine months of near eye-ball to eye-ball contact on the border with Pakistan served nothing, the Congress seems to have achieved an impossible feat. "By its soft approach on Pakistan, i.e. short of declaring war, the UPA through coercive diplomacy have made Pakistan believe that it is an exporter of terror," said Mehta.
"Pakistan stands in the corner like an errant boy saying yes we have done it, so all is forgiven," added Dasgupta.
Rajdeep rounded off the topic of Pakistan as an electoral issue pointing out that at least on electoral terms on the issue, the UPA seems to have neutralised the NDA.
Level of happiness with the ruling UPA government :
The level of happiness with the Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi led UPA government seems to be 66 per cent according to the survey. Those happy with the BJP led NDA government was a high as 57 per cent.
High satisfaction with UPA
Those who say they are… Satisfied Dissatisfied
With NDA in 2004 57 28
With UPA in 2009 66 21
Note: All figures in percent. Rest ‘no opinion’.
Forty-five per cent would like to give the UPA government another chance but 30 per cent say no. Meanwhile, more wanted to give the BJP government in 2004 (as high as 48 per cent) and yet the NDA government was voted out.
The government seems to have not done well in its pet issues but is still a favourite with the voters.
N Ram, Editor-In-Chief, The Hindu pinned the credit of winning hearts on the UPA, especially riding on the Mumbai terror attacks issue.
Ram recalled the statement of BJP leader Rajnath Singh who had advocated military action and trade sanctions against Pakistan, post the Mumbai terror strikes. "The UPA were sober and they did not buy into the mad bomber ideas advocated into sections of the media and in a very shrill way by the BJP. Completely crazy ideas," said N Ram.
"I feel that 26/11 was some kind of a turning point in blunting the edge that the BJP led NDA seemed to have,” said N Ram. ""IT looks like a third category will play a crucial role in deciding who will form the Government," he added.
Adhikari pointed out that those wanting the UPA government back in power is not a figure too different from the one showing those who wanted the then ruling NDA government back in power in 2004. So there is not much to read in there as the differences are pretty even. This he felt was the democratic response, the core of the way our electorate functions.
What is the public mood at the moment, then?
Mehta was surprised that the anti-incumbency was not so high while one would expect it to have been much higher.
"The mood of the nation is something of a mystery. No body knows what people are thinking at the moment. No body knows how they are going to vote. It is going to be a big challenge for the survey to know what is the clear public mood," said Mehta.
So is there no decisive public mood seen in the electorate?
"Part of the problem lies in the fact that we speak an old language to describe a new political reality. We are stuck in the old language of the 1970s and 1980s when there was a clear public mood that swept across the country. Now it is actually statewide. National election is a derivative outcome of the principal choices made at the state levels," said Yogendra.
National issues refracted at the state levels?
That is the reason national parties use most common derivatives like a public figures and personalities to cut across these barriers.
Ahssan pointed out that the regional allies would be the answer to local loyalties if national mood and personality failed to deliver.
"The alliances that you make at the state levels will count," added Adhikari.
Anti-incumbency not being a big issue now is nothing to write home about, pointed out Yogendra. He reminded that in 2004 too the NDA faced no anti-incumbency factor at least as seen in pre-poll surveys.
So it depends on anti-incumbency at state level, quizzed Ahssan.
People want to give UPA another chance,
just as they did to the NDA in 2004
Those who say… NDA in 2004 UPA in 2009
Should get another chance 48 45
Shouldn’t get another chance 30 30
Note: All figures in percent. Rest ‘no opinion’.
Kajol Singh, National Affairs Editor of HYDTV was quick to add that if personalities mattered so much, then Atal Bihari Vajpayee would not have failed in 2004. "Elections are now more and more fragmented, and have become localised," she said.
She credited the Congress for having figured out certain things in advance and fine tuned them to their benefit.
"The Congress came to power in 2004 after eight years of being out of it and they realised that they must accept coalition and embrace acceptability. So they played the role of a centrist party. And that is why their acceptance level is a little higher today. But in the process it has become inarticulate, they have not been able to communicate and probably embarrassed over some of the policies they have had to adopt," highlighted Kajol.
Dasgupta said that it is more than given now that both the major national political parties accept the power of coalition.
He pointed out that though there is no anti-incumbency so clearly visible, there are vulnerabilities of the UPA government. The outcome depends on whether between January when these polls were conducted and till April when we go to polls, whether the NDA is going to be able to exploit the vulnerabilities to its advantage.
"It's really a test for the opposition," said Dasgupta.
Mehta said how well the NDA exploits UPA vulnerabilities is important.
"All depends not on the core of each coalition, but on parties surrounding the core," said Adikari.
Yogendra had a takeaway for the day. "Though economy is a serious anxiety, it is not playing out the way the NDA would have it play out," concluded Yogendra.
"Gentlemen, the bottom-line is that it is a game of political roulette," reminded M H Ahssan summing up the show's discussion. "The bottom-line is nobody knows," Mehta added the rejoinder.
M H Ahssan took that as the factor that made the coming elections even more exciting when even the psephologist's could be proven wrong.
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