India's opposition on the ropes

By M H Ahssan

With the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance coalition having bounced back with surprising vigor in India's recently concluded state assembly elections - snagging three out of five states - its main opposition, the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has begun to look increasingly vulnerable in the run-up to the May general elections.

Unsurprisingly, no sooner did the state election results filter in than senior Congress leaders seized on the opportunity to pronounce how their party was the likely winner come May.

"The Congress has improved its prospects to return to power after the assembly elections, which have been a morale boost for the rank and file of the party," Parliamentary Affairs Minister Vayalar Ravi said at a press conference.

Indeed they have, but another important factor was the government's speed in showing the door to controversial home minister Shivraj Patil and former Maharashtra chief minister Vilasrao Deshmukh after the November 26, 2008, Mumbai terror attacks. It followed this up with a raft of tough new anti-terror laws, and in his first few days in office new Home Minister P C Chidambaram has steered through a record number of tough anti-terror laws in parliament. The steps have naturally bolstered the public image of the Congress-led government, which had been accused of being "soft" on terror.

With these steps in place and its assembly election successes in its pocket, an upbeat Congress leadership is moving in for the kill with an eye on the polls. At a meeting this month, party chief Sonia Gandhi directed all state units to submit a list of probable candidates by the month's end. Hectic talks are going on to select the best candidates, with All-India Congress Committee general secretary Rahul Gandhi pitching in to vet many of them.

In direct contrast to the optimistic mood of the Congress camp, the BJP - which had been on an upward trajectory for most of 2008 - has been divided by internal dissent over many issues, including its choice of party candidates for the election.

Even its prime ministerial choice, 81-year-old L K Advani, is seeming more like a liability after the party's shocking rout in the state elections in Delhi. That's because, as political pundits point out, Advani is acknowledged as ideologically more extreme than former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, which makes him less acceptable to many.

Insiders point out that middle-roader Vajpayee was the glue that held the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - the coalition that had governed India until 2004 - together when it was in power. And despite being part of the BJP flank, Vajpayee's appeal was widespread among its coalition members, including the breakaway factions of the erstwhile Janata Dal (JD) party, which stayed in the coalition mainly because of him.

But now with Vajpayee physically unfit and Advani being positioned as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, discomfort among coalition members is growing by the day. And party cracks are showing; Sharad Yadav, a former socialist who was recently appointed as the convener of NDA, didn't have any qualms in publicly expressing his wish that "Vajpayee was still around to guide them in the forthcoming parliamentary elections".

"The party is in a bad shape," said a senior BJP leader, who preferred anonymity. "We have not improved our position at all. Internal feuds will be our worst enemy in the coming elections."

The BJP is also facing growing restlessness among some of the NDA's major allies, such as the JD and the Biju Janata Dal, which apparently have some serious differences with the party. Meanwhile, the Communist Party of India and other leftist parties have publicly claimed they have received positive signals from some NDA allies keen to forge a so-called "third front".

To add to the party's woes, BJP vice president and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Kalyan Singh quit the party recently, resigning from all party posts as he said he was feeling "neglected". In a letter to party president Rajnath Singh, the 76-year-old - who has been sulking over various issues - said he was feeling "unhappy" and would not compromise and continue with the party.

Insiders could have already saw this coming, as Singh had been keeping away from important BJP meetings for months. At the time of his resignation, he said the BJP had sidelined him and he was "not being given due importance in a party which he had contributed to establishing".

As if this wasn't bad enough, in another blow to the party, one of the BJP's senior-most leaders and the country's former vice president - Bhairon Singh Shekhawat - has challenged the party's choice of prime ministerial candidate by throwing his own hat into the ring.

Shekhawat, who created a flutter within the BJP by declaring that he would contest the upcoming Lok Sabha (Lower House of the parliament) polls at the ripe age of 86, also hit out at Rajnath Singh for his remark that "somebody who has held a constitutional post should not enter the electoral fray". He even went to the extent of saying that Vajpayee should give the post a shot if his health improves. Clearly, there's no dearth of aspiring prime ministers in the BJP fold.

The party's internal fractures showed again recently when top leaders of the NDA congregated in New Delhi in December to celebrate Vajpayee's 84th birthday. Interestingly, Vajpayee was missing. Though his glaring absence embarrassed the party, with his health blamed, insiders reveal that the stalwart is disenchanted with the way things are going in the party.

Apart from these niggling worries, non-BJP coalition partners in the NDA are also concerned about the state of their present relationship with the "saffron party". For instance, the JD in Bihar and the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa are at loggerheads with local BJP units. There is similar discontent in many other states.

Meanwhile, Advani is attempting to revive the party's electoral chances by winning over the young (under 35) demographic which constitutes two-thirds of India's 1.1 billion population. The BJP stalwart has launched a publicity blitzkrieg - a website, a blog and a large budget advertising campaign to target young voters. Two blogposts in three days - one on spirituality and the other on technology - were launched by Advani this month, leading the media to dub him India's "new kid on the blog".

However, despite a downbeat pre-election mood in the BJP camp, analysts say the political situation is dynamic and could change ahead of the election. This would be hardly surprising considering that in the past decade trends in Indian politics have veered more towards multi-polarity than one-party rule. In the last Lok Sabha polls, for instance, the BJP and the Congress together won only 283 seats, a tad more than the halfway mark in the 543-member house.

In other words, the elections are still anyone's game, and it this thrill of the unexpected that will make the election in the world's largest democracy all the more exciting.