Gambling on Elections: India's future on Stake

By M H Ahssan

It is said that a peep into India's huge satta (illegal gambling) market provides an indication of the nation's pulse.

Now, with general elections expected in April or May, the satta market is gearing up for some big betting in an industry already estimated to earn many billions of dollars every year.

From the usual cricket satta, the buzz now is about party positions and the next prime minister, given the emerging era of coalition politics and incumbent Manmohan Singh's ill health, which makes him unlikely to stand for another term. Seventy-seven-year-old Manmohan underwent heart bypass surgery this week.

As a satta operator told HNN, apart from the usual pegs such as the single-largest party and the number of seats for regional outfits, the biggest bets will be on the next premier.

The names that are currently hot include opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Lal Krishna Advani, the Gandhi siblings Rahul and Priyanka, the BJP's Rajnath Singh, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati, Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, Gujarat chief minister Narender Modi, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home Minister P Chidambaram and former premier Deve Gowda.

The field is unusually wide. As a satta operator commented, "Manmohan's heart surgery has really opened up the political arena and heated the situation. Many new names, such as Pawar, Mukherjee and Chidambaram, that were not being considered for the odds [bets] are now in the picture.''

Although it too early for actual odds to have been set, a few favorites are emerging. A BJP-led government means Advani would be premier. Meanwhile, Chidambaram is the front-runner should Manmohan be unavailable and his Congress party gets to form a government. The "third front" could be a toss-up between Maharashtra state's strongmen Pawar and Mayawati, perhaps backed by the left parties. Mayawati is expected to do well in the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh that returns a sizeable 80 seats to the 543-seat Lower House of parliament, the Lok Sabha.

Although Rahul Gandhi - son of Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi - has been spoken about a bit, he is not being considered the top Congress candidate for prime minister (as far as the betting odds go) as the feeling is that his mother wants him to gain more experience - he is 39. Chidambaram is seen as somebody more likely to fill Manmohan's slot, especially as he has a a clean image.

Although satta is banned, it remains one of the most organized gaming forums in India, with millions (some say billions) of dollars changing hands every year.

According to police assessments, illegal betting on sport alone amounts to well over US$5 billion annually. Some police officials say the yearly volume could be as high as $20 billion, depending on the state of the economy, especially the stock exchange and real-estate prices, which can generate massive windfall gains for potential punters.

Usually, satta is at its busiest during cricket matches, when bets are placed on every aspect of the game and betting volumes during key one-day international matches (as opposed to the five-day ones), and which involve traditional rivals India and Pakistan, sometimes exceed US$500 million.

Another favorite betting subject is the officially announced arrival date of the first rains of the monsoon season in India, or elsewhere.

Bookmakers are known to have approached cricketers and bribed them to fix matches to suit the odds of major gamers.

Last year, reports suggested that powerful betting syndicates tried to influence a crucial vote of confidence against the government over the India-United States nuclear deal on July 22, amid allegations of huge amounts of money changing hands to buy fringe voters in the Lok Sabha.

There were indications to show that some independent members of parliament and smaller regional parties from the provinces of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh were approached by syndicates to support or vote against the government, depending on the favored odds of the big players.

While big money for horse-trading among parliamentarians is usual in the Indian political firmament, it was the first time there was serious talk that bookies could be directly involved in determining the political future of the country. (In the end, the government survived the vote and the nuclear deal was approved.)

In recent years, the betting process has turned high-tech and global with the help of computers, mobile telephones and the Internet, with rich non-resident Indians and top underworld dons heavily involved in the trade.

Although the Federal Reserve Bank of India has blocked credit-card payments on websites it believes are fronts for gambling, many illegal Internet forums continue to be operated by prominent bookies.

Punters set up an account with these sites and instruct them to make bets on their behalf for a fee. Illegal money laundering channels (referred to as as hawala locally) are also used.

With mobile phones and e-mails under threat of being monitored by the police, some operators offer big clients "free home delivery" services using young boys as runners.