High Risk Games

By M H Ahssan

Taliban attempt to choke NATO supplies offers India diplomatic opportunity

In the aftermath of 26/11, Taliban forces have attacked NATO military vehicles and supplies passing through Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) five times over the last week. This is the route through which 70 per cent of NATO supplies for troops in Afghanistan pass. But close to 250 NATO vehicles have been blown up over the past week alone. Given the international nature of the outcry following 26/11 and the Security Council’s ban on the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), this could be the Taliban’s way of warning the US not to put too much pressure on Pakistan.

Despite repeated Taliban attacks security at NATO’s shipping terminals appears to have been left to overstretched local police. Taliban violence against members of the secular Awami National Party now ruling NWFP has also been spiralling, unchecked by security forces. Meanwhile, President Asif Zardari has demonstrated the shakiness of civilian control by acting on the basis of a hoax call supposedly made to him by Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee, which resulted in the redeployment of troops from the Afghan to the Indian border. The lack of security for NATO supplies suggests that somebody is sending the message that Pakistan controls a critical route for supplying NATO troops in Afghanistan, and too much pressure on Pakistan could lead to this route being choked.

This, however, is a high-risk strategy as it will end up alienating the world. Even a minimal definition of the Pakistani military’s responsibilities would require it to protect NATO’s supply lines. Consistent failure to do so would expose unwillingness to assume any responsibility. At the same time, failure to protect NWFP’s elected government would end up ceding the province to the Taliban, in which case the army would have demonstrated its incapacity to defend Pakistan’s sovereignty. Neither will choking what is currently NATO’s main supply route into Afghanistan work, as NATO is already working on two alternative supply routes, one through Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and the other through Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.

German interior minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in New Delhi on Friday that Pakistan needs to do more than just banning the JuD. The Taliban attacks offer a diplomatic opportunity to New Delhi to build an international coalition to pressure Pakistan to curb jihadi militias, as everybody’s interests — including Pakistan’s — are affected by Islamabad’s inability to rein them in. India suffered 26/11 and would like to prevent further terrorist attacks. President-elect Barack Obama plans to increase US troop presence in Afghanistan, which would require enhanced rather than degraded supply lines, not to mention the denial of Pakistani territory as a safe haven to launch attacks on NATO troops. Pakistan itself can undergo true democratic consolidation only when religious extremists and their sympathisers in the security services are taken out of the equation.