From dreading the HR phone call on Friday mornings to checking the news for updates on any terror strike in your city before stepping out for shopping could continue to be the pattern in 2009. But there is hope. India’s economy would recover relatively faster than other nations. People will vote on manifestos, not election rhetoric. Easy money will lose its sheen. And such corrections spell hope, not doom.
In 2008, people had only a fistful of reasons to rejoice. Citizens of AP celebrated when Telugu got the classical language status. They revved up and down the Punjagutta flyover celebrating their much smoother Begumpet-Banjara Hills ride. But such moments of joy were few and far in between. It was largely a pot holed ride, worsened by the recession and the fear of terror strikes. Small wonder then that optimism eludes people when asked if the new year would give them any reason to smile. But the never-say-die spirit soon bounces back as they merge logic with hope and point out that 2009 could be not a bad year, after all.
With the recession’s ‘full’ impact still to be felt on the Indian economy and the fear of pink slips still looming large on various sectors, senior industry persons say that it would easily take another two quarters for the grim situation to show any signs of improvement. But there is a glimmer of an upside. “The year 2009 is going to be a test period. There will be some more downturn before there are better days since we haven’t seen the full impact of the US meltdown yet. But India being an emerging market would see a relatively faster, better recovery,’’ says K Harishchandra Prasad, senior vice-president, Federation of Andhra Pradesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
WE THE PEOPLE
What the year 2009 will bring about is a sea change in the way ‘people’ are perceived. On one hand, while employed professionals will be scanned routinely for their retention worthiness, on the other politicians will have to take the masses seriously. Harishchandra Prasad points out that if earlier the poor performers were laid off, now even a hardworker’s job is not guaranteed, particularly in the IT sector.
Helpless in the job front, but powerful otherwise. The same set of people would exercise tremendous power in the upcoming elections, says S A Shukoor, director, Centre for Educational Development of Minorities, who believes that Barack Obama’s victory was was a sign of things to come. “People have brought about this change (Obama’s victory). There would be a ripple effect across nations. People will think before they vote in the elections and more people will vote this time. Elections will be won on manifestos and not political drama,’’ Shukoor hopes.
But such hope is not sans logic. Shukoor points out that over the years the number of communal riots in the city has dipped. This, he says, is because sense has prevailed among people that its politicians and not them who gain from such acts of violence. “People will tire of political games,’’ he says.
In what appears like a reflection of Shukoor’s thought is the silent rumbling of creative activism in the city. Theatre personalities are working on scripts that leave a message for the masses. “We now plan to stage at least two shows every month and plays that leave a message,’’ says theatre personality Rashmi Seth, adding that several theatre groups in the city have woken up from their slumber. Several plays being scripted currently focus on the fight against terror and inspire people to raise their voice against poor governance and coax them to appreciate the traditional lifestyle of sensible spending. “Theatre is a hugely sensitive medium that reflects the turmoil as well as harmony in society,’’ Seth says, adding, “The year 2008 initiated a number of debates on governance and lifestyle patterns. Be it terrorism or the global financial crisis, such difficult times only leave people stronger and wiser.
HELPFUL CORRECTIONS
The meltdown’s impact in the last quarter of 2008 did make people go back to post offices and reschedule their purchases and there will be more such similar corrections in the year 2009. While employers cost cutting is an alarming sign of the firm’s financial health, it is also a much needed correction, say industry experts. Industry seniors rue how people particularly in the IT sector have been molly-coddled by their employers. “Six months ago, there would be one cab for one person now that one person is asked to wait until there are three more people to be dropped,’’ they say, illustrating how such pampering cannot last.
But what the industry is hoping for would change in the year 2009 is the perception of easy money. Simple graduates landing jobs easily would on the face of it paint a pleasant employment picture but academicians have expressed their discomfort at students cutting short their education for quick money.
Describing it as a case of “easy come, easy go’’ Harishchandra Prasad says that the downturn has made one thing clear: “If you have worked for something, it would stay with you for longer. If it comes easily, it goes easily,’’ he says, pointing out that young grads at 20 or 21 would be sitting on three offers and wouldn’t even know why. He notes how the present challenge the industry is faced with today is to place fresh graduates and now its not just their grade but their soft skills and general knowledge that are being put to test.
But a much-needed correction would be a hand-holding exercise that companies could undertake at the time of laying off their employees. The layoff season in India Inc. reeks of the US practice of showing the door to employees without as much as counselling them as to how best they could use their existing resources until they get their next job, notes a senior HR consultant.
One heartening correction, which is neither terror or meltdown related, has been in the drop in accident casualties in October-November, 2008. “The total number of deaths dropped by 31 as against 2007 for the same period,’’ says N V Surendra Babu, additional commissioner of police (traffic). This could well be the result of strict policing on roads and sensible driving, but Surendra Babu says that it is too early to take credit for the dip until a pattern is established. A correction subtly unfolding is that of good scripts doing better in Tollywood with formula films crashing at the box office this year.
HOPEFULLY, SPEAKING
Not all industry sectors are hit by the meltdown. Healthcare is one of them. In fact, India’s medical tourism dream could take off with people from across the world realising the quality affordable healthcare they can receive in India. “A challenge we are all geared for is to introduce new technology in medicine so that India’s healthcare industry becomes world class attracting international patients,’’ says Dr K Hari Prasad, CEO, Apollo Hospitals. He also hopes that the Rajiv Arogyasree programme, a major development in the year 2008, is fine-tuned in 2009.
Another important sector, sports, may not be as insulated from the recession as the healthcare industry. “The year 2008 was good for the sports fraternity with Saina Nehwal making it big internationally and state players entering Olympic teams from India,’’ says Vikas Raj, managing director, Sports Authority of Andhra Pradesh, citing even shooter Gagan Narang’s perfect scores in the last few events.
CHEER IN GOVT SECTOR TO CONTINUE
The sixth pay commission’s implementation could not have been timelier. When the world is reeling under the recession, government officers are insulated from the meltdown blues as they are now not only getting their revised salaries but they even received the first instalment of arrears (calculated from the year 2006) during Diwali.
Government organisation employees got 40 per cent of the arrears due to them in October and the second instalment of 60 per cent of the payout is due in the next financial year. The first payout amount ranged from Rs 20,000 to Rs 3 lakh depending on the seniority of the official. In addition, the employees were given a bonus.
The city has several central government establishments such as the railways, telecom, air force, army, CPWD, CRPF, DRDO, CISF, Income Tax, Survey of India and customs and excise among others.
But the icing on the cake perhaps is the revised salaries that government employees say have brought them almost on par with the private sector employees, who so far flaunted their fat pay cheques.
Small wonder then that builders and car dealers are queuing up at government offices hard selling property and latest car models as they are the only cash-rich party available in these recessionary times. In fact, car dealers have come up with lucrative deals offering special discounts and deals of easy payment options to net the government employee.
And government employees are spending and even loving it. While some are investing in gold (the fluctuating gold prices not withstanding), others are buying themselves cars using the arrears to make down payments that would make their EMIs smaller, affordable. Others are using this chunk of money to repay mortgage bank loans. But most people are investing in fixed deposits with some nationalised banks offering a good rate of interest.
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