Monday, December 01, 2008

Analysis: War on terror reveals chinks in our armoury

By Javid Hassan

India has always been known as a land of contrasts—of unity in the midst of diversity, prosperity amid poverty, high technology amid a stone age mentality, professionalism amid bad planning.

India has always been known as a land of contrasts—of unity in the midst of diversity, prosperity amid poverty, high technology amid a stone age mentality, professionalism amid bad planning.

This glaring contrast was back in focus on November 26 when a group of ten Pakistani militants punched a hole in the country’s security system, entered Mumbai via Porbander in Gujarat and sought to re-enact 9/11 by killing American, British and Jewish nationals in different parts of the city. They also destroyed the icons of India’s free enterprise—Taj Mahal Hotel and Oberoi Trident as well as plush restaurants frequented by western tourists.

While they were making a political statement through such acts that left hundreds of innocent victims dead and injured, they also exposed chinks in our armoury. They proved more than a match to the Indian commandos who, through sheer grit and determination, managed to kill nine of the gunmen and arrested one amid the dance of death and destruction that left Mumbaikers dazed and the rest of the world shocked.

Even the battle-hardened marine commandos, or marcos, were surprised at the professionalism of their adversaries who were not only well armed and funded, but also knew every nook and cranny of the Taj and the Trident. The discovery of satellite phone and GPS map, which they forgot to pick up from the boat they had commandeered in the Indian waters, highlighted their level of preparedness prior to the operation.

It showed that they had studied Mumbai’s topography thoroughly before launching their attacks from five different directions. These attacks could not have been possible without the involvement of elements from the Pakistani side. The objective behind this mayhem was obviously to create political and economic instability and discourage investors, who looked upon this country as an emerging power in the East.
There was a method in their madness. The militants may have surveyed the hotels by checking in as guests and appeared to be "very, very familiar" with the layout of the hotel, an army general said. "At times we found them matching us in combat and movement. They were either army regulars or have done a long stint of commando training," observed a commando involved in “Operation Tornado.”

The terrorists were well-informed about the layout of both the Taj Mahal Hotel and the Oberoi Trident. They even knew which room had the closed-circuit television cameras, which would give them a clear view of the alleys and lobbies of the entire Taj, and reached and captured the room before the commandos did. The marcos had to grope in the dark despite being veterans, but the terrorists raced between the Taj's new and heritage wing, engaging the marcos in the type of combat seen in the Kashmir valley, officials said.

While the guests were running helter-skelter in their bid to escape, “The Times Now” TV channel showed bed sheets and curtains knotted together and dangling from a room in the Taj, with the reporter wondering who was the one that got away. “The Guardian” has now reported that these lucky guys were Will Pike and Kelly Doyle from Camden in North London.

They explained how they tried to escape by knotting towels, bed sheets and curtains together. “But clearly I never did my boy scout knot badge because my knots were rubbish,” he said. The knots came undone and he fell, breaking three vertebrae, both arms and his pelvis. Shortly afterward, firefighters rescued Ms. Doyle with a hydraulic lift, while Pike remains in a Mumbai hospital’s ICU.

Their attacks on specific targets, such as hotels, Leopold’s cafe, Nariman House, and foreigners, especially Americans, Britons and Jews underlined their message, which was picked up and flashed around the world by the mass media. When one of the participants in a subsequent TV debate on the terrorist attacks sought to steer the subject towards the genesis of the problem dating back to 9/11, 2001, he was cut short by the anchorman and asked to confine himself to the shootout in Mumbai.

Such an attitude rules out any meaningful debate on the search for a lasting solution. The same mindset was in evidence when Lt.Col. Purohit, self-styled seer Dayanand Pandey and Sadhvi Pragya Singh were implicated by ATS in the Malegaon bomb blast recently. The BJP, RSS and VHP immediately pounced upon the Anti-Terrorism Squad for making ‘unfounded allegations’ against the trio and the Indian Army.

They also sought to put a spin on what they called actions taken in defence of the motherland. When one approaches a subject with a closed mind, one ends up dealing with the symptoms, rather than the root cause, of the problem. The effort could be counterproductive in the security context, as the real culprit goes scot –free.

Besides the closed mindset, there is a logistic problem as well. India’s police force is already over-stretched. According to official data, the police-population ratio is 126 per 100,000 as against the internationally recommended minimum of 222. Indian policemen are said to lack adequate resources and training, while they remain outdated in their functionality and equipment.

The scenario is the same for coastal security police, which also has limited powers, personnel and boats. The problem is further compounded by lack of coordination with the navy. Also, the challenge in terms of national security arises from the coastal front. Admiral (retd) Jayant Nadkarni, who was the 12th chief of naval staff of the Indian Navy, has underlined the need for people's involvement in protecting the coast and maintaining security in general.

“Many houses have been built illegally near the coastal areas in Mumbai and other cities in the Konkan region. These constructions can become perfect hiding places for terrorists or anti-social elements. We hardly have any mechanisms in place to keep a check on the inflow of people in these areas," Nadkarni observed.

He pointed out that the country has a 7,600-km-long coastline whose protection is a Herculean task. "In such a situation, the local fisherman can be of immense help in keeping a check on things. During the 1971 War a special team of fishermen was formed for gathering vital information and this proved to be very successful. Such teams should be formed on a permanent basis," he added.

The central government has drawn up a comprehensive plan that provides for the setting up of 73 marine coastal police stations, 97 check points and 30 barracks to beef up security around the coastal areas. As of now, 56 police stations have been established so far with ill-trained manpower.

In this context, Liz Robbins and Keith Bradsher of “The New York Times” quoted Stephen G. Vickers, president of International Risk Ltd., a Hong Kong-based security company, as saying in today’s (Nov.30. 08) issue: “Without detracting from the heroic efforts at the front line by the troops and police, this is a terrible indictment of the Indian intelligence apparatus.” NYT report said the company had issued an advisory six weeks ago warning India against an increased risk of terrorist attacks given other incidents in the region.

Writing in a similar vein, Jay Fraser disclosed in yesterday’s (Nov.29,08) “Threats Watch” website: “It is now being reported that the Taj Hotel actually had warning of the attacks , had hardened security, but eased their positions just prior to the attacks. Afterwards, the owner of the hotel chain admitted that even the security that they had placed would not have been enough.”

Another point that cropped up during heated discussion was that technocrats should handle the country’s security needs instead of septuagenarian politicians with their own vested interests. Elite security forces like the National Security Guards (NSG) are stationed in New Delhi providing security cover for Parliament and political leaders. This leaves the common man in the rest of the country at the mercy of mercenaries—a point that was also raised by film director Mahesh Bhatt and others during the TV debate on national security.

India also needs to upgrade its security architecture by investing in an integrated system, whereby cameras equipped with electronic sensors could detect any suspicious movement of a person and trigger an alarm inside the security control room. Such an advanced system is already in place at sensitive installations and buildings in Saudi Arabia following the terrorist incidents that took place in Riyadh in the aftermath of 9/11.

The climate of insecurity is having an adverse impact on the national economy. Insurance companies face large claims from Tata-owned Indian Hotels Ltd and the Oberoi- owned East India Hotels Ltd following the terror attacks on both the hotels.
The liability covers for EIH Ltd, according to reliable sources, are the responsibility of the public sector United India Insurance Company Ltd. In the case of the Indian Hotels, the agency is the Tata AIG insurance group co-insured with ICICI Lombard General Insurance Ltd.

The claims would mostly originate in the form of terrorism risk and third party liabilities. The EIH liability cover is estimated at around Rs 10 crores for the Indian operations and around $50 million for the global operations. As for the Indian Hotels, the insurance cover is estimated to be slightly larger.

However, experts point out that insurance claims may not really be settled easily - thanks to the 'fine print' and, in fact, lack of a proper cover against terrorist violence. A 'terrorism insurance cover' is not still present in the country unlike in the US and the UK, according to them.

The global economic recession has also taken its toll on the economy. Suzlon Energy-owned Hansen Transmission, which makes gearboxes for wind turbines, has decided against buying into Coimbatore-based Shanthi Gears in the wake of the current market turmoil and stretched resources of its parent company, Suzlon. Shanthi Gears.

At home, the economic recession has led to an increased number of downgrade ratings from four rating agencies—Crisil, Ikra, Fitch India and CARE. They indicated that there have been over 45 downgrades during the current financial year compared to 20 upgrades.Thus, for every upgrade, there have been more than two downgrades.

Terror attacks, according to market sources, could trigger a 10-15 percent fall in the tourist season this year. Hotel and tour cancellations have begun, while all leisure visits to Mumbai stand cancelled. Already, the US, Britain, Canada and Australia have advised their citizens against visiting India.

These negative developments could see a surge in retrenchments and layoffs by corporate India. Already, Commerce Secretary G.K. Pillai has said, quoting a commerce ministry estimate in New Delhi, that as a result of the global meltdown, five lakh employees could lose jobs in the textile sector alone, unless corrective measures are taken. This is aside from thousands of job losses, salary cuts and retrenchments in the automobile and other industries, besides reduction or cancellation of business orders.

The economic forecast for 2009 is still gloomy, according to a wire agency report, which rates India as the riskiest among the 14 Asian countries analysed by the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy. “India faces some of the biggest risks in 2009 because of uncertainties surrounding the general election, rising communal violence and terrorism incidents.”

Under these circumstances it is imperative to create the promised national security agency, about which we have been hearing so much. Mumbai’s terrorist attack has proved conclusively that India is confronted with two types of terrorism—one external and the other internal.

A nationwide security network, professionally managed, could go a long way in reining in terrorist elements, both at home and abroad. It took ten hours before the NSG could swing into action. By then, the Pakistani militants had captured the vantage points to keep the commandos at bay for over 60 hours.

Another internal security threat comes from its poor road network exemplified by NH 48. This highway, which runs through the Western Ghats amid thick forests on the Mangalore-Goa sector, is full of potted holes all the way up to a stretch of 50 km or more. Whether you are travelling by bus or by car, the vehicle has to move at a snail’s pace along the rutted highway.

This makes motorists and bus passengers a sitting duck for terrorist attacks. There have been lots of complaints in the media, but no action has been taken on the ground. No wonder, Naxalites are active in this area as it provides them with a quick getaway after each attack. Terrorism has become a two-headed monster playing havoc with the people’s lives at will.

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