The mild mannered Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is not, by definition, a tough talker. But for once, he can deploy his legendary silence as an effective weapon of toughness. He must use it on Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Yet another audacious terror attack by Pakistan-trained terrorists in the heart of Jammu, on a police station and an army camp, which has left at least 12 dead and several injured is reason enough for even a dove to suspect that the hawks are ruling the roost on the other side. In the circumstances, talks are just a smokescreen, for the hawks.
Manmohan Singh will, of course, remind us how we cannot choose our neighbours and that peace with Pakistan is a noble (for him perhaps Nobel) objective. That is why we must talk. Even now, it’s not too late for Singh to reconsider his insistence, The first question Singh should ask himself is that even if the two countries must keep dialogue open, does it have to be at the highest level of head of governments? There are several levels at which countries engage. Foreign ministers can talk. Foreign secretaries can meet. Even Joint Secretaries who head the respective country desks can have a meaningful conversation.
Since Pakistan has shown no sincerity in combating terror in recent months, perhaps talks should only be conducted at the bureaucratic level to press home the point that an upgrade of talks will only happen when Pakistan shows some action. By meeting Sharif, Singh is ruling out several diplomatic options to show India’s unhappiness with Pakistan.
The second question for Singh is whether he has thought through the timing of his latest ‘reach-out’ initiative? From his vantage point, this is probably his last chance to make peace, given that he has only 8 months left in office. After nine years in office, Singh is yet to visit Pakistan. But it’s bad timing across the border.
First, Nawaz Sharif is only a few months old in office and he needs to consolidate his domestic position before he can really begin to think out-of-the-box on India. It is only too well known that the Pakistan Army has the final say on its country’s policy towards immediate neighbours. Sharif has a fractious relationship with his army (which is instinctively anti-India) and he may not want to ruffle their feathers so early in his tenure.
Second, the Pakistan Army is also set for a churn. After a long tenure of six years, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani is set to d emit office in November. His successor, whoever that is, will need to shore up support from within the Army to ensure a successful tenure.
A serious peace initiative with India is not likely to be the best strategy for a new Pakistan Army Chief, assuming that the person is not an anti-India hawk (the more likely scenario). India can expect, therefore, more mischief from the Pakistan army (and its non-state arms like the Lashkar-e-Taiba) in India in the coming months, not less.
Third, the backdrop for all of this is the impending withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan in 2014. The Pakistan security establishment is inching to re-establish its dominance in its Western neighbor once the US is out. It already resents India’s presence in Afghanistan and has subjected Indian establishments to several terror attacks in the last few years.
American withdrawal will only embolden Pakistan to target Indian interests in Afghanistan further. That’s not a conducive environment for any sort of peace talks.
It is therefore in India’s interest not to mollycoddle, but to be tough with Pakistan. This doesn’t mean war. But a cold war of words may be a more useful signal than some mild mannered scolding.
