ANALYSIS This may be the passing of an era, with Congress teetering on the edge of political irrelevance. Opinion polls suggest the party will get roughly 90 seats in the general elections. Its nemesis, BJP, could bring in 220 seats (possibly more), and with its committed NDA allies could come very close to an outright majority.
Parties that otherwise would have shunned Narendra Modi are already starting to consider a post-election alliance with him. In Gujarat, and elsewhere, there are Congress MPs and MLAs who could defect to BJP. Congress looks to be wiped out in virtually every northern and central Indian state. If Modi has two moderately successful terms as prime minister, Congress may find itself on the wrong side of history.
How did a party with its lineage, talented MPs across generations, a clean leader in Manmohan Singh and dispensing largesse to voters arrive at this pass?
Clearly, UPA's record on corruption has disgusted millions of voters. Yet, every party, including BJP (and we may soon find AAP as well), is shot through with corruption. Hyena cries of the opposition are justified, but their own record is dismal and largely shameful. And every voter knows it.
That Congress is led by the Nehru-Gandhi clan does alienate a portion of voters. On the other hand, so many regional parties are family affairs that Congress is hardly unique. BJP, it is true, has thus far avoided choosing its top leadership from a well-entrenched family. But it has a much more powerful family behind it, the Sangh Parivar, or RSS. It is amazing how well BJP has deflected this issue. The Nehru-Gandhis take their chances in elections; no one can say that about RSS.
Having said that Congress's faults are hardly unique, media and BJP have succeeded in arguing that corruption, clan and extra-constitutional authority are the particular diseases of Congress. Media dug up the corruption, stuck it to Congress and tore into The Family. First AAP and then BJP seized the moment and succeeded brilliantly in turning people against the Grand Old Party. One of BJP's key tactics was to paralyse Parliament with five uproarious years of hollering, stalling, and shamming.
Beyond this, Congress failed to come to grips with creeping inflation, stubborn levels of inequality, and chronic unemployment, especially in rural areas, even as the economy grew faster than at any time in the past. Inflation, inequality, and unemployment were at the root of BJP/NDA's downfall in 2004. Congress's mistake was to think that its social programmes would compensate for these ills. They didn't, and spending on social programmes fuelled if it did not trigger inflation.
The third and most important cause of Congress's horrendous state, though, is its inability to communicate a sense of decisiveness and leadership. It has cribbed and complained, mostly in media, but the fact is that voters have come to associate it with vacillation and weakness. The three key leaders of the party — Sonia, Rahul, and Manmohan — have spent 10 years signalling their discomfort with the power game.
Modi and the most successful chief ministers, by contrast, have been rewarded for taking decisions and appearing strong. Voters simply don't care much that their regional leaders are bullying, self-aggrandising and intolerant as long as they lead.
The most serious problem with Congress, though, is that it does not have leadership in the states, the real testing ground of Indian politics. This is fatal because no one from here onwards is likely to be prime minister if he or she has not run a state government successfully. The only Congress leader to move from state to national success was Narasimha Rao. Unfortunately for Congress, there are no Raos on the horizon.
A Congress collapse is not good for India. We need a second national party, one with leftist leanings, in an era of wretched regional parties and a triumphalist right-wing party. The Grand Old Party of Indian politics must find a way back, for all our sakes.
A decade of Congress rule is seemingly coming to an end. Ten years have passed since the last BJP government was voted out. The reasons are not fully clear why the Vajpayee government was not returned to power in 2004.
Certainly BJP was not up against the tsunami of public anger the way Congress finds itself today. People of all strata, no matter what their leanings, are unanimous in that the Manmohan Singh led government has probably the worst public image ever going into elections. Now the only point of discussion remains whether or not Congress will reach 100 seats.
But again, anything is hard to predict accurately till results are announced.
Election fever is fast catching up. All political parties are in a rush to seek votes and campaign as much as they can to reach out to their core constituents. Although it may seem the voters have made up their minds, whom they are going to vote for, a good percentage of them may still need some convincing.
A good number - about 10 crore voters are first timers. This is the segment parties are most eager to woo. These voters are in the age bracket (18-25 years). They have a mentality very different from the run-of-the mill politicians of before. They are not going to be swayed by gimmicks or repetitive poll-time capers of leaders. They are impressionable, and are aware of what is going on. They also have a mind of their own, which may become jaded and disillusioned as they vote more often later on.
But these voters can make or mar an election. Political parties must understand their thinking; otherwise if they lose this segment, they are gone. What do these people want? They are interested in jobs most of all and a stable economy. Other things may be relevant to them as well, such as national security, law and order and communal harmony too.
But, it is employment which bothers them most. In a tough job market, they want somebody who can raise the morale of the work-force and act as a catalyst in pulling along the wheels of the economy at a steady pace.
All parties promise the moon at such times. After polls, leaders are soon caught up in personal battles to gain most from power and promises are forgotten. This is the one time that all politicians are brought to book in the eyes of the electorate. A large number of undeserving candidates will get elected once gain. But that is the nature of the system. What matters is what the ruling party does with its mandate. Is it able to exercise it a well-defined manner so as to benefit the nation at large or will it be engulfed in a maze of scandals and scams once again.
The Indian middle class, notorious for its aloofness from politics and disinclination to vote seems likely to shed that image. Greater participation in voting always helps the incumbent, but the charged climate today means a greater polarization of votes, the likes of which was seen only in 1977. This promise to be a watershed election. Much of what we deem as politics is bound to change forever. Reputations lost will be lost forever and a new set of polity will emerge.
Hopefully it will throw up a government which would last most of its term. The downfall of the Congress means the absence of the only party having a pan -Indian presence. The growth of regional parties is not a good sign. Most have no vision outside their local areas and seem to have little to do outside their zones.
It is this growth that needs to be nipped. Even the U.S. has a two party system, and too many parties with different agendas on their minds can never hold up together for long. Quite shamelessly these parties get together only before elections which shows they care a damn about ideology or principles.
No comments:
Post a Comment