The political success of Mulayam Singh can be ascribed to his deep understanding of religious and caste equations. Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav has played a long innings in Indian politics. He has been the chief minister of the country’s largest state thrice with 22 MPs still in his camp. His son, Akhilesh Yadav, is running in UP the largest majority government ever formed. He has four MPs from his own family. Now, he is eyeing the Prime Ministerial chair.
But are these qualities sufficient to render him a strong candidate for the post? In 2004, despite being in power and having 35 MPs, Mulayam Singh could not secure a respectable position for himself in the UPA I coalition government and was sidelined.
Disheartened, he sought comfort in former PM and senior SP leader Chandrashekhar who advised him to hold on to his dream. 35 MPs were more than enough to get him the top post. But in 2009, this figure rolled down to 22. Mulayam Singh was completely disheartened by now and had no other option but to support UPA accepting all its conditions.
In 1996, the coalition government of the United Front had three prime ministerial candidates – HD Deve Gowda, Jyoti Basu and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Deve Gowda was elected the PM when Sharad and Lalu Yadav spoiled the game for Mulayam. But he has not lost hope yet. Ever since Akhilesh’s rise to power in 2012, a change has come over the Uttar Pradesh political scene. Communal tension which had almost ended by the mid-1990s erupted again with a fresh series of riots hitting the state. In addition, there is the Modi-factor. While the Akhilesh government is busy playing politics by distributing laptops, tablets and allowances among the youth, Mulayam Singh has started a new chapter of ‘backward caste politics’. In this scenario what are Mulayam Singh’s chances of being the PM?
Muslims
The Muslim vote is pivotal for Mulayam Singh’s politics. He has enjoyed Muslim support since the Ayodhya issue of 1992 up until 2009. However, the equation changed in 2009 when no Muslim SP candidate made it to the Lok Sabha. The main reasons included inviting Kalyan Singh to join SP and ousting Azam Khan among others. Mulayam Singh was able to mend the damage soon enough and won back the trust of Muslims which resulted in the 2012 victory. As SP leader and journalist Shahid Siddiqui puts it, “Muslims support Mulayam Singh not because he promises better governance or development, but because he promises them protection.”
But here is the irony. All promises of protection made by SP to keep the Muslim support intact have come crumbling down during the last one-and-a-half years. Imran Ahmed, a Muzaffarnagar riot victim who is currently living at Shahpur refugee camp, says, “We thought the government would stand by us. But they are no different than BJP.” A similar sense of disillusionment is seen in the words of Salman Rizvi, a poet from Azamgarh, “In our own land, we are looked down upon with suspicion. And it is growing with each day. Sixty years ago we had fought for the freedom of this country. Now we are the ones living in fear. Accusations are piled up against us. The police and the state terrorise the community. We need to look for honest and secular political alternatives now.”
But the change has not been sudden. Ever since the SP came to power in 2012, communal incidents are on the rise. The situation seems to have gone out of control after the recent Muzaffarnagar riots in which 60 people were killed, including 40 Muslims. Many like Imran have been forced to live in refugee camps after being displaced from their villages. The pictures repeatedly flashing on the news and social media have not allowed the wounds of the society to heal, turning Muslims further away from SP. However, SP leader Kamal Faruqi fails to agree. He says, “There is still time for the Lok Sabha elections. Neta ji will not let Muslims stay angry for long. He will find out a way soon.”
In every election held after 1993, a rally in the predominantly Muslim district of Azamgarh would usually kick-start Mulayam Singh’s electoral campaign. On 14 September 1993, he introduced the Mandal Commission in Azamgarh. In turn, the Muslim and Yadav community offered him their support. Even today Mulayam Singh has nine of their MPs and one MLA from the district. But the Muzaffarnagar incident has cast its shadow on this relationship as no Muslims turned up for his rally at Azamgarh this year. Siddiqui notes, “Muslims will not vote for him blindly any more. They will vote strategically. It will depend on the candidate and the first preference will be given to BSP or Congress.”
This is a setback to Mulayam Singh’s aspirations. Uttar Pradesh has the largest Muslim population (19%) of the country. Without an outright Muslim support, his dream of reaching Delhi can never be realised. Senior journalist, Sharat Pradhan, says, “The recent series of riots in Muzaffarnagar and its neighbouring areas have turned counter-productive for SP. They cannot reach Delhi unless the Muslims give an out-and-out support. But the Muslims are no longer going to vote for them. If Mulayam Singh thinks that the effects would be seen only in Western UP, he is gravely mistaken.”
Realising that his party is fast losing ground, Mulayam Singh made it a point to underline the presence of the sole Muslim leader, Abu Hashim Azmi, by offering him a front seat on the stage during the Azamgarh rally. He also made several references to Azam Khan in his address. Azam Khan acknowledged it by calling him Rafiq ul Mulk (A friend of the country). However, the community around which this political tug-of-war was centred chose to boycott the rally.
Yadav and OBCs
The political success of Mulayam Singh can be ascribed to his deep understanding of religious and caste equations. In case Muslims choose to desert him, he will continue to enjoy a Yadav backing. Some factors nevertheless stand in the way. One is Modi and the other is the vote-bank of the youth that has come up in the recent years. A big section of young Yadav voters is under the Modi-influence.
This is the view of a young Yadav voter from eastern UP who had, till now, been considered a staunch supporter of Mulayam Singh. Pradhan gives another reason why the Yadavs are upset with SP, “After the government was formed in UP, an attempt to further the interests of the family was a cause of disappointment for the Yadav community. A common Yadav had to pay in order to get any work done. It created a sense of distrust in the government. But we cannot say that Yadavs will turn against Mulayam completely.”
Mulayam Singh is well aware that the displeasures of the Yadav community will be damaging for the party. Therefore, he is experimenting with a new formula of social justice. In a recommendation letter sent to the Central government, he demanded that 17 OBCs be converted to SC. These include Kahar, Kashyap, Kevat, Machua, Mallah, Nishad, Kumhar, Prajapati, Dheevar, Bind, Bhar, Rajbhar, Biyar, Batham, Gond, Terha, among others. He even flagged off rath-yatras launching this campaign in the entire state. The move is an attempt to carve out a secure vote bank on the pattern of Maha dalit vote-bank of Nitish Kumar in Bihar. In the past the OBCs across the state have mostly voted for BSP-BJP. If Mulayam Singh is successful in wooing the OBCs, the party will have a new vote-bank which constitutes a little over 25% of the total vote percentage of Uttar Pradesh.
Upper Caste
SP recorded an unexpected win in the 2012 assembly elections in which the upper caste vote played a major role in addition to the traditional SP voters. In the 2007 assembly elections, SP received 20% of Rajput votes which rose to 26% in 2012. Similarly, the share of Brahmin votes which was 10% in 2007 rose to 19% in 2012. By sweeping 224 seats, SP proved that all the sections have voted for it.
But the situation has changed since 2012. Brahmins have not been traditional supporters of SP. After the decline of the BJP and Congress that banked mostly on upper caste votes, the two chief castes in the region – Thakur and Brahmin – are considering other options. While the BSP has drawn in the Brahmins, Thakurs are standing by SP. In 2012, however, Brahmins gave preference to SP over BSP. Pradhan explains, “During Mayawati’s rule, it was thought that the entire Brahmin community had gained but in reality, only Satish Misra and his relatives were the gainers.” The SP collected Brahmin votes riding on an anti-Mayawati wave in 2012. Over the past one-and-a-half year, the Brahmins have become further disenchanted with the SP, alleging that the party is trying to appease Muslims without caring for their own interests.
The Thakur community is also likely to turn away from SP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections though Mulayam Singh tried to lure the community by re-inducting Raja Bhaiya and others in his cabinet. The top leader of Kshatriyas in UP is Rajnath Singh, who is currently the BJP national president. And in the aftermath of a win in the 2014 elections, his name might also crop up as a prime ministerial candidate. If the BJP plays its cards well, the SP would suffer a major setback – one such instance was seen a few days ago when the BJP Thakur leaders put up hoardings in support of Raja Bhaiya after which Akhilesh Yadav hastily took the decision of re-inducting him.
Third Front
Kamal Faruqi believes that a third front will be formed as the Congress would not win enough seats to form a government. Mulayam Singh also does not want to enter into an alliance before the elections. During the Azamgarh rally, he reportedly said that a third front will come into power after the elections.
Apart from Mulayam Singh, the third front will also include the Left parties, Trinamool Congress, JD(U), BJD, DMK, TDP, NCP and others. The left parties that have been limited to Kerala and West Bengal are going to play a decisive role. It does not have enough seats in Kerala and in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is expected to perform well. Mamata Banerjee leads the anti-Congress group of leaders, and thus she’d be the natural member of this front. But she has irreconcilable differences with Mulayam Singh, who joined hands with the UPA on the issue of Presidential election.
In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalitha is expected to perform better than Karunanidhi. But a soft corner for Narendra Modi will keep the two major parties of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal from joining hands.
Mulayam Singh can lead the third front only if he is the ‘first among equals’, which means his party has to get the greatest number of seats. Uttar Pradesh has a total of 80 seats and if Mulayam Singh manages to win 35-40 seats, he stands a chance. But if his party gets only 20-22 seats, he will be ‘one among equals’ and hence, will not be in the reckoning for the top spot. A senior SP leader says, “After Muzaffarnagar, our Mission 2014 has shrunk to 14 seats. It changed the whole scene. Today, the third front is a non-starter.”
The idea of a potential third front seems impossible because there is no cohesion among the various constituent parties. As Lalu Prasad Yadav languishes in jail, none of his former colleagues – Mulayam Yadav, Chandrababu, Naveen Patnaik, Karunanidhi – cared to release a statement expressing sympathy. In other words, the fate of the third front is clear even before its formation.
Arithmetic of UP
It is easier to understand politics in UP by dividing it into three parts – eastern UP, central UP, and western UP. Both eastern and central UP have been traditional strongholds of Mulayam Singh. Eastern UP is comprised of 26 districts which constitute 27 Lok Sabha seats. At present, SP owns nine of them. In central UP, there are 21 Lok Sabha seats of which SP has five. Of the 24 seats in western UP, SP has only five here as well. Ruhelkhand and Bundelkhand have four Lok Sabha seats each with SP possessing two in Ruhelkhand and one in Bundelkhand.
These were the statistics after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. After the 2012 assembly elections, the situation improved but the party is still facing a tough time. Out of 24 seats in western UP, 20 are such where Muslim voters comprise 40% of the population. SP has a wavering presence in these constituencies. Similarly, for around 15 seats of eastern and central UP, there are more than 35% Muslim voters. The Azamgarh rally is a sign of the SP’s weakening grip over these seats. As such, it is highly improbable for Mulayam Singh to win more than 20-22 seats.
By launching a campaign for the conversion of OBCs into SCs, he is hedging a bet to make up for the loss of the Muslim vote bank. The castes make up one-fourth of the total vote percentage and they have traditionally clung to the Congress and BJP. Mulayam Singh is relying on his own political expertise rather than the pundits – he is certain that just like the horror-filled memories of 1984, Meerut, Maliyana, Bhagalpur and 1992 faded, the Muzaffarnagar episode will soon be history too. But after Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav were greeted with black flags in Muzaffarnagar, Mulayam Singh does not have the courage to visit the riot-hit region.
The 2012 elections had givenMulayam Singh a ray of hope for the 2014 prime ministerial contest. But the way Mulayam Singh trampled the expectations of the public has not only dwindled his hopes to be the PM but also cast a shadow over the future of Akhilesh Yadav.
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